The NBA regular season can be a slog. Games in November, December and January tend to blend together and feel meaningless.
But the 20-plus games after the All-Star break set off alarm bells. We've passed the trade deadline. The playoffs are in sight. Seeding is on the line.
As we come down the final stretch of the regular season, here are the three teams under the most pressure before the postseason begins.
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1. Houston Rockets
Most playoff teams make small tweaks at the trade deadline. And then there's the Rockets.
In trading away the only true big on the roster in Clint Capela, the Rockets are throwing all their chips on the table. It's small-ball or bust.
Going all the way back to the "Seven Seconds or Less" Suns, Rockets coach Mike D'Antoni has stretched the limits of how the game has been traditionally played. With general manager Daryl Morey firmly behind him, the Rockets have led the league for the past three seasons in 3-point attempts per game and are on track to retain that title this year.
But this is different. Even the Warriors, the greatest example of how playing small can be successful in today's NBA, had a roster with at least a traditional big or two.
Offensively, we all know that the small-ball game is going to translate well for Houston. Opposing defenses will be stretched thin with all the shooting on the court, opening the lane for Russell Westbrook and James Harden.
Defense is the real concern. The Rockets are counting on guys like Robert Covington and PJ Tucker, both under 6-8, to defend the center position. They have held up so far, but what about over the course of a long, punishing series?
Traditional centers have struggled against the 6'7" or Less Rockets.
— StatMuse (@statmuse) February 27, 2020
- DeAndre Ayton: 12p/6r/2b
- Rudy Gobert: 12p/6r/2b
- Cody Zeller: 3p/3r/0b
- Enes Kanter: 0p/3r/0b
- JaVale McGee: 4p/5r/1b
The Rockets are 10-2 when going small this season. pic.twitter.com/TliR7Gkk2K
"We're just trying to really open it up for James and Russell to get to the rim so we can get layups. Those are the best shots, or fouled," D'Antoni said last month. "That lineup permits that. Now, can you play that well enough defensively and rebound to make them blink, and then they go small? Or do their bigs impose their will? It's a challenge. We'll see."
Since going to the true small-ball lineup, the Rockets are 10-2, but the spotlight on D'Antoni's gamble will only get brighter. An early playoff exit will almost certainly mean the end of D'Antoni's time in Houston. Already in the last year of his contract, it's no secret that he has one last chance to prove he deserves a new deal.
Morey is also on the hot seat. After the stir he caused with his comments on the situation in Hong Kong, Morey has zero room for error. A deep playoff run could allow owner Tilman Fertitta to forgive and forget. An early exit could be the final straw.
2. Philadelphia 76ers
Shouldn't we have learned our lesson last year? The Celtics were widely perceived as the favorites to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals. Poor team chemistry and a disgruntled superstar doomed their season.
The Sixers entered this season in an eerily similar position. The addition of Al Horford led many to believe that Philadelphia was the best team in the conference. Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons were expected to take another step forward and continue improving as a duo.
It hasn't gone according to plan. Philadelphia sits at 37-23 with a tiny lead over the Pacers for the fifth seed in the East. The talent is obviously there, but the pieces just aren't fitting.
Horford has taken a step back, and the Simmons-Embiid combo is not going to work out in the long run unless there are significant roster changes around them. In the 429 minutes the trio has played together on the court, they have a 98.8 offensive rating. That would easily be the worst mark in the league.
It's so bad that Sixers coach Brett Brown made the decision to move Horford to the bench. Brown's lineup change, while clearly needed, is also an effort to save his job.
Much like the Rockets, the Sixers could look a lot different next season. The Embiid-Simmons era in Philadelphia may be coming to a close. NBA executives are reportedly already discussing the potential for an Embiid trade.
A quick playoff exit will almost certainly put an end to this version of the 76ers. Recent injuries to both Embiid (shoulder) and Simmons (back) only bring more questions. Considering how good the top of the East is, the Sixers falling to the sixth seed would be disastrous.
Brown better hope that Simmons and Embiid can recover quickly. He's running out of time.
3. Los Angeles Clippers
I get it. This isn't the team you would pick to be under any kind of pressure as the regular season winds down, but hear me out.
The Clippers mortgaged their entire future last summer in acquiring Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. They gave up a future All-Star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a solid wing in Danilo Gallinari and five first-round picks (plus additional pick swaps) in order to get George and guarantee Leonard signing as a free agent.
George, who has played in just 37 of 59 games in his first season in Los Angeles, has had three separate injuries to the same hamstring, not to mention offseason surgeries on both shoulders. Shouldn't this be a little troubling?
When healthy, the Clippers look like the best team in the Western Conference. However, the fact that the Clippers have played less than 10 games together when completely healthy is a cause for concern.
The West is deep. The Clippers are by no means locked into any playoff slot. They sit at 40-19 with only a 1 1/2 game cushion on the Rockets for the third seed, though they do now hold the same record as the second-place Nuggets. It's imperative that Los Angeles finishes in the top three out West. A second-round series with the Lakers looms large if they fail to do so.
"I think just the area to improve is if we can maintain it, we can continue to keep the consistency," George said after a dominant home win over Denver on Friday night. "Again, it's hard to gauge that. Every team goes on runs. Denver is a good team. They're gonna go on runs, but it's about how this team prepares for the non-Denvers, the non-Rockets, the non-alert [teams] if you know what I'm trying to say. It's just about how we prepare for those teams. That's what it's gonna come down to.
"Granted, we probably won't play the bottom half of the league come playoff time, but it's just about the preparation and who we need to be every night."
The window for the Clippers is much smaller than most fans want to admit. The two-year contracts for both Leonard and George are essentially a ticking clock. If the Clippers are unable to produce a title in 2020 or 2021, potential disaster awaits.
Coach Doc Rivers must push the Clippers to find some semblance of continuity. Their recent three-game winning streak is a start, but a championship is the ultimate goal.