Raptors vs. Bucks: Predictions, picks, TV schedule for Eastern Conference finals

Raptors vs. Bucks: Schedule, time, TV channel

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Raptors vs. Bucks: The backstory

I covered the 2001 playoffs, the last time the Bucks made the conference finals, and the notion of these two teams facing off brings a tear to my eye. I can still remember Vince Carter’s potential game-winning 20-footer bouncing awry in Game 7 of the East semis against Philadelphia, giving the series to the Sixers and leaving the Raptors fans in a stunned playoff silence that has pretty much lasted two decades now.

Toronto made one hopeful trip back to the conference finals, in 2016, and gave one of their best postseason fights, losing to Cleveland in six games rather than the usual four.

Milwaukee has not been to the conference finals since that 2001 trip, which was sullied by accusations that the NBA refs had tilted the games toward Allen Iverson and the Sixers, their East Coast numbers believed to be better for ratings.

Regardless, these are two teams, guided by new coaches — rookie Nick Nurse for Toronto and likely Coach of the Year Mike Budenholzer for the Bucks — without much recent history of success in the NBA playoffs.

But one of these teams will be in the NBA Finals and likely face a shaky Western Conference foe. For both, it has been a long time — for Toronto, in fact, a Finals trip has never happened, and for the Bucks, the wait stretches back to 1974.

However this series turns, the NBA will get something refreshing out of the deal: A Finals participant that has not had a spot in the league’s biggest showcase in 45 years. Or ever, for that matter.

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Raptors vs. Bucks: The key players

Sure, it will be star forwards Kawhi Leonard and Giannis Antetokounmpo getting the marquee attention for this one. But it will be their first mates — each of whom guards the opposing team’s star — who determine how this series will go.

For Milwaukee, that means Khris Middleton, who is rolling through another impressive postseason. He is averaging 19.1 points and shooting 46.7 percent on 3-pointers, while also posting 6.0 rebounds and 4.6 assists. He was a defensive ace in the series against Boston, the primary defender on two of the Celtics who struggled badly, Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward.

Middleton had success defending Leonard in the regular season. In three matchups against Leonard, Middleton faced him an average of 47.7 possessions, allowing only 12.0 points on 40.7 percent shooting from the field. Middleton will have help, of course, but he will get the primary draw on Leonard, and he’s got a good track record in a limited number of games.

On the other side, it will be Pascal Siakam, who has been a consistent secondary weapon for Toronto as veterans Kyle Lowry and Marc Gasol have struggled. Siakam has averaged more than 20 points per game in the playoffs, and the Raptors will need that consistent scoring against Milwaukee.

But Siakam will also get the prime matchup against Antetokounmpo, who dominated the Raptors in the three games he faced them this season. Antetokounmpo averaged 27.0 points, 15.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists against Toronto, shooting 58.5 percent from the field and 41.7 percent from the 3-point line.

Siakam was not the only defender on him, but he had his hands full — Antetokounmpo shot 64.7 percent from the field and 66.7 percent from the 3-point line when guarded by Siakam in those three games.  

Raptors vs. Bucks: The big number

4.5. It’s easy to overlook the Bucks’ bench when you’ve got Antetokounmpo on the roster, but Milwaukee’s reserves have played 19.1 minutes in the playoffs, fourth-most among the 16 teams, and have been a plus-4.5 through nine games.

While Antetokounmpo’s preparedness to lead a team to a championship was a question leading into the playoffs, whether the Bucks’ supporting cast was up to that task was also a question. Thus far, they’ve proven their muster. That was evident in the crucial Game 4 win in Boston, when Antetokounmpo went out with foul trouble in a tied game with 8:18 left in the third quarter.

The Bucks responded with a 19-9 run, mostly led by George Hill and Pat Connaughton. Toronto’s bench has been subpar in the playoffs. The reserves could give the Bucks a big advantage.

Raptors vs. Bucks: Xs and Os

After the Celtics’ Kyrie Irving laid 26 points (12-for-21 shooting) on the Bucks in the conference semifinal opener, Budenholzer did something rare for him — he made a defensive adjustment by having his team switch off screens, even if it left Irving with a mismatch. The Bucks provided enough help in the paint to keep Irving honest, and for the rest of the series, he struggled badly, going 25-for-83 from the field in Games 2-5.

Leonard presents a different problem than Irving because you need to do more than just keep him away from the rim. He is capable of finishing at the basket, but he can also hit jumpers from 10-16 feet and 16 feet out to the 3-point line.

Clogging the paint won’t be enough against Leonard. Middleton has had success defending him, but Leonard has been a different player in this postseason. Budenholzer might go back to not switching defensively, but you have to wonder whether he will also call for double-team help on Leonard if he starts figuring out Middleton’s approach.

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Raptors vs. Bucks: The prediction

Especially after Game 1 in Milwaukee, it looked like all the fears about that team’s roster were coming to fruition. The Bucks had trouble with strong individual scorers. They don’t switch enough on screens. They don’t adjust enough defensively.

That’s all been erased. The Bucks have had the kind of bench depth, the kind of defense, the kind of perimeter shooting that allows them to carry on in the postseason. Not sure the Raptors have that, even with Leonard firing on all cylinders.

If the Raptors can slow the pace, as they did against the Sixers, the series swings in their favor. But the Bucks are not an easy out.

Bucks over Raptors, 4-2