Scottie Barnes and the new-look Raptors have two wins since shipping out Pascal Siakam, but they’re playing vastly better basketball than their 2-11 stretch suggests. They’re also quickly becoming one of the best sneaky underdog plays every time they take the court, so we’re very much intrigued by Toronto this evening against the 28-21 Pelicans (8:00 p.m. ET).
Before you think we’re blowing smoke, look at the results. The Raptors have won or covered in three of their past four games, meetings with Atlanta, Chicago and OKC that nobody would consider easy matchups. The Thunder were down a couple players due to injury, sure, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and company still make for a brutal road matchup and Toronto forced not one but two overtimes.
Now Darko Rajaković‘s squad is getting 11.5 points in New Orleans, with BetMGM and other major sportsbooks not buying its ability to compete against strong Western Conference contenders on back-to-back nights. The Pelicans’ -650 opening moneyline translates to an implied winning probability of nearly 87 percent.
Should we heed the silent warnings of oddsmakers and fade the Raps? Or, should we attack the value and back the quiet but suddenly-confident underdogs in the Bayou?
Let’s get to our best bets, top props, and final score prediction for Raptors-Pelicans this evening. Good luck, have fun, and be sure to head to BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA, for all the latest odds and props.
Raptors at Pelicans betting odds, trends and insights
All odds and betting insights courtesy of BetMGM.
- ATS: Pelicans -11.5 (-115) | Raptors +11.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Pelicans -650 | Raptors +450
- Over/under: O 232.5 (-110) | U 232.5 (-110)
On the surface, this looks to casuals like a clear bet for the 28-21 home squad. The Pels have gone 14-10 at home this season, they're coming off two consecutive wins, and Toronto is new, young, and playing the tail-end of a back-to-back after a six-period loss in OKC.
However, New Orleans has gone just 5-5 over its past 10 games and Toronto has won or covered in three of its past four. The Raptors have also gotten healthier over the past week, getting big man Jakob Poeltl, electric new point guard Immanuel Quickley, and three-and-D threats Gary Trent Jr. and R.J. Barrett all back from injury.
So, yeah, looks can be deceiving. The same can be said for the over/under, as the total of 232.5 serves as one of the lower projections of the six-game slate this evening. Four of the past five Raptors games have gone OVER that total, as have seven of New Orleans' past 13 games. It sure looks like we might have some value here.
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Raptors vs. Pelicans prediction
We said it multiple times last week and we'll say it again this week: the Raptors deserve more respect than the oddsmakers seem to be giving them right now. However, we'll take a value opportunity whenever we can get it.
Toronto has looked much more fluid and cohesive on both sides of the floor as of late, especially since getting healthier. The Raps beat the Bulls in Chicago, nearly upset the Hawks in Atlanta, and put a real scare in OKC last night. The Thunder have arguably been the best overall team in the Association this season, and Toronto's big six pushed them to double-OT.
Six different Raptors scored 16-plus points on Sunday evening. Six Raps also hauled in five-plus boards. Quickley and Barnes also combined for 20 assists. IQ (17 points, 11 dimes) and Poeltl (19 points, 12 boards) both double-doubled, while Barnes (19 points, nine assists, seven dimes) flirted with a triple-dub. Masai Ujiri's vision might be coming to life early.
The most promising thing we've seen from Toronto: the assist numbers have risen with the shooting percentages. Good passing has led to fewer turnovers and more open looks. Between the Raptors' win in Chicago and a 2OT loss in OKC, they totaled 72 assists on 91 made field goals while shooting 49.5 percent from the floor, 43.8 percent from three, and 85.4 percent from the line.
We're also seeing Darko Rajaković‘s squad buying in on defense, on the glass, and with hustle. This team has plenty of talent and athleticism, and being a constant underdog seems to have put a chip on everyone's shoulders.
Plain and simple, we don't see why New Orleans deserves to be a double-digit favorite in this game. Zion and Jonas Valanciunas play strong down low, sure, but Poeltl and Barnes can hold their own down there.
The Raps can also easily keep up with the outside shooting of New Orleans, whose last two underwhelming wins over young Texas teams (San Antonio and Houston) weren't exactly great sells (the Pels shot a collective 30 percent from three-point land across those two Ws).
Before that two-game winning streak, NOLA had dropped three in a row and four of five total. The same factors that have helped Toronto ascend — ball control and shooting efficiency — have often hurt the Pels. They're only 7-7 since January 5, and they're 5-6 ATS on the season when favored by at least six points.
Ride with the 'dogs tonight. Buy them a couple points if you want some extra insurance, and consider mini-teasing the Raps' +13.5 and OVER 230.5. We're fine with betting them at +11.5, though, as "We the North" continues to give its fan base something to believe in.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Pelicans 118, Raptors 112
Raptors vs. Pelicans: Top player prop bets
Zion Williamson points — OVER 23.5 points (-115)
With Pels center Jonas Valanciunas likely tussling with Jakob Poeltl all night, we like Zion's chances of hitting his OVER tonight. These are the types of games in which New Orleans head coach Willie Green needs his 6-6, 285-pound power forward to get big.
Zion's M.O. every time he touches the ball should be to either:
- (a) get Scottie Barnes in foul trouble, or
- (b) capitalize on his size advantage over R.J. Barrett and whoever else Rajaković throws at him.
We like what we've seen from Williamson lately. He has scored 30-plus points three times over his past eight games, and 24-plus in five of eight. Don't expect many double-teams — that would require leaving Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum, Herb Jones, or Trey Murphy open, or putting Valanciunas at an advantage near the hoop. Ride with Zion.
MORE: Scottie Barnes among biggest All-Star snubs
Scottie Barnes rebounds — UNDER 7.5 (-120)
Now that Poeltl has returned and everyone seems to be crashing the boards collectively, Barnes can focus more solely on scoring and playmaking. The young stud amassed 19 points and nine assists on Sunday night, and he topped out at seven rebounds for the second consecutive game. Barnes has only exceeded that board count once since the middle of January, so don't expect a massive jump tonight in a road game against a strong front court.
Stay tuned for more player props as they become available between now and game time!
