Happy Hump Day, NBA fans and bettors! Our eighth installment of our live betting blog, the Sporting News NBA Prop-A-Shot series, took us to Charlotte for the Raptors vs. Hornets game. It was a scrappy game — one that saw Miles Bridges post a career-high 45 points — but Toronto ultimately prevailed and so did we on a plethora of pregame and live bets on BetMGM.
If you're familiar with our live betting blog series, feel free to skip over to our Scorecard for the evening to see how we fared. Otherwise, stick around so we can explain what we do here every week.
Each Wednesday morning, we drop 3-5 player props for the game or games we plan to feature in our live betting blog that evening. We often add props and/or update odds throughout the day, so it's always a good idea to check in here and there in the morning and afternoon.
Then, about an hour before our featured game(s) tip, we begin the blog. At that point, we attack the over/under bets and props that yield the most value. We also update you on any injuries or news of note that may affect the game in any way, shape, or form.
Once the game begins, the fun kicks into overdrive. We highlight props and recommend bets throughout the entirety of the live window, always letting you know which angles we're attacking, which way we're leaning, and when a bet feels like a lock. From the opening tip to the final whistle, we're grinding to boost both your bankroll and ours. This isn't just a hobby — this is work!
Throughout the night, we'll also keep you apprised of any noteworthy lines, major developments, or shocking storylines in our game(s) and across the rest of the NBA that may have shaken up the betting world. The purpose of all of this: We want to let you into the minds of a betting analyst, so you can bet like us for a night. And it's all 100 percent free. No Discord. No CashApp. No tips needed.
This is a great chance for you to uncover new wagering strategies before and during NBA games, and see what kind of interesting moneyline, spread, and over/under developments take place throughout the night.
As you'll see in the next section, we have been crushing the sportsbooks all season, and tonight was no exception. Let's take a look at our NBA Prop-A-Shot Scorecard for the night, our updated season-long record, the blog itself with all the live updates throughout the night, and the pregame bets and props we highlighted. Thanks for stopping by, and remember to check in with us early and often next Wednesday!
Prop-A-Shot Scorecard, Feb. 7
Traditional bets and player props, pregame
- Scottie Barnes points + assists + rebounds: OVER 26.5 (-120) ✅
- Brandon Miller points: OVER 22.5 (-105) ❌
- Jakob Poeltl double-double: Yes (+185) ✅
- Nick Richards double-double: No (-165) ✅
- Immanuel Quickley three-pointers: OVER 2.5 (+105) ✅
FINAL SCORE, PREGAME BETS/PROPS: 4-1
Live bets and player props (6:10 p.m. - 9:30 p.m. ET)
- Immanuel Quickley OVER 6.5 assists (-130) ❌
- Alternate total UNDER 228.5 (-145) ❌
- Hornets +9.5 alternate spread (-150) ✅
- Raptors live spread -2.5 (-110) ✅
- Raptors live spread -1.5 (-120) ✅
- Gary Trent OVER 4.5 three-pointers (-120) ❌
FINAL SCORE, LIVE BETS/PROPS: 3-3
Prop-A-Shot Record, Feb. 7: 7-4
Prop-A-Shot Season Record: 75-49
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Raptors at Hornets: Updates, live betting advice
This is where we dish out betting advice during the live window of the marquee games we cover every Wednesday. We highlight strong values, showcase interesting odds, and always let you know when we're locking in a live bet or player prop. Basically, we let you into our mind so you can bet like an analyst for the evening.
All times are p.m. ET. All odds and bets are from BetMGM, an authorized betting retailer of the NBA.
6:10 p.m. ET: We're exactly one hour from tipoff in Charlotte, and the 17-33 Raptors are -7.5 favorites. As much as we like the new-look Raps, we can't imagine betting them to win by eight this early in the roster reconstruction phase — even against a 10-39 Hornets team that's without LaMelo Ball. Fade the spread and opt instead to bet Immanuel Quickley OVER 6.5 assists (-130). We also like the alternate UNDER of 228.5 at -145. If we were to bet a spread amount of any kind, we would take on some juice and bet the home-team Hornets at +9.5 (-150). Our favorite prop at plus odds happens to be the same best bet we highlighted earlier today (see below), Quickley to hit three three-pointers (+105).
7:00: With 10 minutes until the tip, Brandon Miller's points total somehow still sits at 22.5 with just -125 odds. We can't overstate how much value you're getting here — he's on an extreme heater coming off Rookie of the Month honors in January, and he's scored 68 points over his past two games. With Ball sidelined and Terry Rozier in Miami, the usage rate should remain sky-high for the No. 2 overall pick of the 2023 NBA Draft.
7:15: Through two and a half minutes, the Hornets have hit all four shots they have taken (two from three-point land) and lead the Raps 12-3. Of course. Toronto's spread has shortened to -2.5. Jump on it. Charlotte will come back to Earth.
7:25: Good defense and some hot Gary Trent shooting has propelled a 10-3 Toronto run, trimming the Charlotte lead to 18-13. This is why we're never reactionary in the first few minutes of games. It's also why waiting until the live betting window often bags you the most bang for your betting buck.
7:38: Watching some of these Raptors' possessions is difficult. As Coldplay would sing "Nobody said it was easy." Toronto has made a bunch of head-scratching decisions, like switching backup point guard Dennis Schröder onto power forward Miles Bridges in the post with no help and holding the ball as the shot-clock expires. Charlotte scored 36 first-quarter points and heads into the commercial break up 36-27. Raptors are at -1.5, which we would bullishly back.
7:40: Dennis Schröder UNDER 0.5 three-pointers is at +120, something we would consider pulling the trigger on. He has been relegated to a playmaking backup role, and it's clear that Darko Rajaković has capped his usage. Shröder has hit zero treys in three of Toronto's past four games. Gary Trent OVER 4.5 three-pointers (-120) also seems intriguing. He has already hit three and he's beaming with confidence.
7:50: A little over halfway through the second frame, Charlotte just went on a 7-0 run and trimmed the Hornets lead to 44-42. The over/under has jumped up to 232.5, which would probably have us betting the UNDER since Toronto remembered it's allowed to play defense. We might stay away, though... seems too volatile.
8:08: It's 57-51 Charlotte at halftime. The Raps cut the lead to one point with just a minute or so left in the half, then the Hornets hit another couple wide-open shots and it swung back in their favor. We still think Toronto can win this game, but who knows at this point. The Raptors just can't maintain efficiency on both ends of the floor. They're -2.5 and the over/under at intermission is 229.5.
8:15: There could be some value in the UNDER still, since the Raps held the Hornets to just 24 points in the second quarter. They need to find a way to stop Miles Bridges, though.
8:30: I've never seen anything like this. Miles Bridges is absolutely eviscerating the Raptors, and yet they keep leaving him wide open. It's like sagging off a guy who's on fire in NBA2K. Bridges just scored his 32nd point a little past the halfway point of the third quarter. He's missed just two of his 14 shots.
8:45: Charlotte leads the Raptors 97-91 after an insane 74-point third quarter. "Only down six," the Raptors' color analyst keeps saying. Yes, but they were also only down six at halftime and then they didn't win the third quarter. "Just need some defense." Yeah, your guys just let the hottest player in the game (Miles Bridges) get a handful of wide-open shots and you gave up 37 in a quarter. And when Toronto does get stops, they struggle to grab boards.
9:00: Just when we thought we were out...they PULL US BACK IN! Steve Clifford inexplicably started the fourth quarter with both Miles Bridges and Brandon Miller on the bench, Toronto has gone on a massive run, and the Raps have taken their first lead in forever. The Raps are playing D, holding Charlotte to 3-for-12 in the fourth quarter as we approach the halfway point of the final frame. It's 106-105 Toronto and I can't explain how happy I am that we stayed bullish on the Raptors.
9:13: It's 118-115 Toronto with 2:00 left after the Raptors just made a couple big stops and then moved the ball very well on the offensive side of the floor. This Toronto team has so much talent — once it tightens up a bit and adds a couple more depth pieces, the future will be bright up north.
9:20: Wow. The Raptors end up winning 123-117! They still didn't cover, so we were absolutely right to fade the -7.5 and instead wait until the live window opened and the Hornets got out to a hot start. We covered every single live spread bet we recommended! And also hit on a bunch of player props!
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Traditional pregame bets and props
Here's where we feature our favorite player props on Wednesday morning and afternoon, well before the night of the games. We typically offer 3-6 player props, depending on which game(s) we decide to cover. On this particular occasion, we had to replace Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic in the afternoon after they were scratched.
Typically, we would have had more props listed here, but we did make up for it by recommending three player props for each game an hour before the 8:10 p.m. tipoffs. That's why it always pays to check in with us early and often on Wednesday nights!
Immanuel Quickley three-pointers: OVER 2.5 (+105)
IQ's confidence has really grown since the Raptors traded for him last month. We're seeing him play with a natural rhythm and creating high-percentage shots off the dribble, and the results have been promising. He has knocked down 41 treys in his past 15 games with Toronto, and he has three or more triples in six of his past 14.
In case you didn't know, Charlotte stinks defensively. The Hornets struggle to defend the three-ball, surrendering the sixth-most threes in the NBA (13.6 per game) and allowing opponents to shoot an NBA-best 39.6 percent from outside the arc. Quickley should make it rain in the Queen City tonight, so we're loving the value we're getting with plus odds here.
Scottie Barnes points + assists: OVER 26.5 (-120)
Raptors president Masai Ujiri and head coach Darko Rajaković have made it abundantly clear that Barnes is the face of the Raptors (and in their eyes, the future face of the NBA). Thus, Toronto's recent roster retooling was basically an exercise in building around its superstar in the making. Barnes has the keys to this squad's offense — he's the main catalyst at all times now.
Moving forward, don't expect Barnes to put up a ton of big rebounding numbers like he did earlier in the season. His primary function, especially now that Jakob Poeltl has returned to 100 percent since coming back from in jury in December, is to score and create for others. Whereas the 2022 Rookie of the Year would often max out at 8-10 shots earlier in the campaign, he now regularly takes 12-24 shots depending on game script.
Over the 18 games since the Raptors dealt away O.G. Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa, Barnes has exceeded 20 points nine times. Across the 10 games since Toronto traded Pascal Siakam to Indy, Barnes has averaged 6.5 assists per game.
So, naturally, we like the young stud's chances of hitting 27 points + rebounds against the abysmal defense of the Hornets. Charlotte allows the sixth-most points per game and the fourth-most assists per game. Fire Barnesy up this evening.
Brandon Miller points: OVER 22.5 (-105)
Miller has started to hit his stride as of late, having just been named Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month. And with LaMelo Ball nursing a nagging right ankle injury, second-year big Mark Williams remaining out with lower back issues, and Miles Bridges the subject of trade rumors, we have every reason to believe Miller will stay hot.
He's coming off scoring totals of 35 and 32 points, and Toronto's perimeter defense has been pretty inconsistent all season. Smash the OVER as we continue to see what MJ saw in Brandon Jordan Miller.
Nick Richards double-double: No (-165)
Richards has done an admirable job filling in for second-year Hornets big man Mark Williams, and he double-doubled (just barely) the last time Charlotte faced Toronto (10 points, 10 rebounds). However, that was in mid-December when Raptors center Jakob Poeltl had just returned from a lengthy injury and only played 15 minutes.
With Poeltl back and the Raps playing a more physical brand of interior basketball as of late, we don't like Richards' chances of reaching double-digit boards this evening. He has been held to single-digit rebounds in eight of his past 13 games, a fate that we expect for the 26-year-old Jamaican once again this evening.
Another double-double prop we like: Jakob Poeltl double-double: Yes (+185)
