The Raptors need to re-sign All-Star shooting guard DeMar DeRozan because they cannot afford to replace him with anyone nearly as good. That is the convenient, assumed line of thought about this offseason for Toronto, at least.
Yes, the Raptors spent a large portion of their 2016-17 cap space last summer, when they extended Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross while also bringing in DeMarre Carroll and Cory Joseph. Those four will combine to make about $46 million next season. With many other key contributors still under contract, it really will be hard for the Raptors to acquire enough new talent and stay near the top of the Eastern Conference if DeRozan leaves the team that drafted him.
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However, there are three major factors that change the calculus. First, the Raptors do not have much committed salary outside of their 2015 additions. All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry will make $12 million next season and Patrick Patterson slightly more than $6 million, giving them two cheap contracts in a year of an unprecedented salary cap increase. None of the Raptors’ young players on their first contracts will make over $2 million next season, and second-year guards Delon Wright and Norman Powell will combine to make less than $2.5 million.
On top of that, Toronto has two 2016 first round draft picks, one of them in the top 10. The final piece of Masai Ujiri’s masterful Andrea Bargnani trade with the Knicks ended up becoming the No. 9 pick in this draft, which could be used on a useful contributor or valuable trade piece. They also have No. 27, which is more of an investment since it can be used to add a player in the league’s final year with this incredibly team-friendly rookie scale.
Finally, the salary cap is rising even faster than expected, which actually helps franchises with loaded books more than those who already had lots of space. Recently released estimates put the cap at $94 million for next season, up from $92 million estimates in mid-April.
Taking off the cap holds for the Raptors’ free agents — DeRozan, Bismack Biyombo, Luis Scola, James Johnson and Jason Thompson — gives them more than $21 million in cap space. That is not enough to do much in free agency this year — most teams will have more — but could open up some fascinating possibilities for trades. Toronto works as a trade destination because those players are already on locked-in salaries that are typically cheaper than this season’s market, and the Raptors have assets that could be appealing.
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While players will also hit the market due to teams clearing cap space, the most interesting potential target for the Raptors is Nuggets forward Danilo Gallinari. The 28-year-old will make $15 million next season and has a $16 million player option for the following season that he will likely decline. His combination of floor spacing and ballhandling would add an element to Toronto’s offense that would complement both Lowry and Joseph, while DeMarre Carroll can guard the opposing team’s more dangerous forward. Ujiri traded for Gallinari as the centerpiece of the 2011 Carmelo Anthony trade when he was the Nuggets’ general manager, so he knows the Italian’s talent level.
The Nuggets would like to keep Gallinari, but his impending free agency brings risk that can be mitigated, especially if the Raptors are willing to involve the No. 9 pick. Ideally, Toronto could get Denver to send back one of its young players to complete the deal, but using No. 9 for Gallinari as the foundation is a fair base for further projections since it should be more favorable from there.
That theoretical trade would leave the Raptors with about $8 million in flexibility and 12 players and picks on roster. While there are other uses for that money, the most interesting final piece would be someone on roster this past season: Biymobo. The defensive-minded center will make more than $8 million, but the Raptors could clear out enough space to bring him back with a few other simple moves if they want. The big man appeared to enjoy his time in Toronto, has a close relationship with Ujiri and appears amenable to a return if they can make a reasonable offer. A starting salary of $16.5 million could produce a four-year, $70.5 million contract, which could be enough to keep him, if they want to spend that kind of money on a likely backup center.
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There would be three paths to clearing the necessary space:
1. Trade Ross. Toronto extended the swingman last summer for about $10 million per season, which could be appealing around the league. If Denver is pessimistic about using their cap space on free agents this summer, he could be included in the potential Gallinari trade, which opens up additional flexibility depending on how the moves are sequenced. The flip side is that the former dunk contest champion’s lack of consistent development has been noticed around the league, reducing his value despite his atheticism and shooting ability.
2. Trade Patterson and at least one of the youngsters. Brazilians Lucas Noguiera and Bruno Caboclo have not proven much in the NBA but still have enough potential to intrigue another franchise. Patterson is a steal on his contract and could garner a future asset and/or someone on a rookie scale deal if they need to clear a little more cap. The complicating factor here is that Patterson’s stretch-four ability is essential next to Valanciunas or Biyombo, and he would not be replaced easily.
3. Trade Valanciunas. This move would be biggest decision of the three but also potentially a perfect time for it, should they prefer Biyombo long-term. Valanciunas would net a significant return on the trade market since his remaining three years and $46 million puts him substantially below the rate for a starting-caliber center, particularly since he is only 24 and coming off several strong postseason showings.
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With any of these possibilities, the Raptors would have a quality team without owing DeRozan more than $20 million per season. Bringing back Biyombo and improving in defense at shooting guard would also make having a top-ten defense a reasonable possibility. Toronto would also retain Joseph at his reasonable salary and have solid depth in the non-traded pieces plus Powell, Wright, draft picks and a signee with the room mid-level exception.
The Raptors do not need to feel boxed in with DeRozan. They can avoid some of the most onerous possible contracts despite the pressure to succeed in Lowry’s final season on his current contract. With proactive management and the right moves, the second-place finisher in the East could be even more dangerous moving forward without overspending on a talented but imperfect player, even one who has been essential to their recent success.