You weren’t going to get Raptors coach Dwane Casey to bite. By the time last week’s All-Star Game rolled around, his team was in first place in the East, two full games ahead of the Celtics and 6.5 ahead of the Cavaliers. Toronto had made a much-ballyhooed change in its offensive strategy, de-emphasizing the DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry pick-and-rolls that had dominated their offense last season, and getting into an offense with more ball movement and open shots for all.
With the Celtics slumping and the Cavs undergoing a trade-deadline overhaul, the Raptors have ascended to a lofty position, considered by some now to be the favorites to win the Eastern Conference. Toronto has been known in recent years for its solid regular seasons and ensuing playoff flameouts, which have put Casey’s job on the line at various times, so perhaps that’s why he addresses any notion of a Raptors coronation with caution.
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“I don’t know,” Casey said when asked if the Raptors were the conference’s best team. “The record says we are, but for me to sit here and say we are the best team? We have confidence, but I’m not going to sit here and say we are the best team. Right now, we’re No. 1. The numbers say that.”
The numbers also show the net impact of the changes the Raptors made to their offense, and the reasons they did so. They needed to cut back on PNRs and find more shooters. Compare how the Raptors offense looked last season to how it looked in the playoffs — and where Toronto is now.
| Raptors offense | 2018 | 2017 | 2017 playoffs (rank of 16) |
| PNR Ballhandler % of plays (rank) | 20.1 (5) | 24.2 (1) | 19.2 (6) |
| PNR efficiency (rank) | 0.89 (7) | 0.95 (2) | 0.86 (12) |
| PNR FG % (rank) | 41.9 (19) | 46.1 (2) | 40.4 (12) |
| Spot-up shots % of plays (rank) | 21.9 (6) | 19.5 (20) | 24.0 (3) |
| Spot-up efficiency (rank) | 1.02 (14) | 1.00 (14) | 0.93 (15) |
| Passes per game (rank) | 297.4 (19) | 2773.4 (27) | 269.7 (7) |
| Offensive efficiency rating (rank) | 110.7 (4) | 109.8 (6) | 101.3 (14) |
Toronto was the heaviest pick-and-roll team in the league last year and very efficient with the play. The Raptors did not pass much, nor did they get spot-up shots. That cost them in the playoffs, where teams were able to take them out of the pick-and-roll and force them to shoot more. As the numbers show, the offense sputtered, from 109.8 points per 100 possessions in the regular season to 101.3 in the playoffs.
The numbers for 2018 show a more diverse offense. The ball handler pick-and-roll is down from 24.2 percent of the offense to 20.1 percent, and they’ve gone from 20th in spot-up shots attempted last season to sixth this year. They’re only 19th in passes, but they were 27th last year, and they’re making 24.0 more passes per game, which is the third-biggest leap from last year to this year in the NBA.
The hope is that the Raptors will be better prepared for the defenses they’ll see in the playoffs this year, and that teams who take out either Lowry or DeRozan — or both — will find the Raptors have other decent options. Toronto has been better at the defensive end (they rank fourth in efficiency), too, and the team has the top-rated bench in the league. All this should give Casey a certain ebullience.
Yet Casey spouts caution when it comes to inflating the Raptors’ prospects. The East is there for the taking, with Boston and Cleveland vulnerable. But we can look closer at Casey’s pessimism and see that he has a point. There are five good reasons to be worried about Toronto and its odds of reaching the NBA Finals.
Bench youth
This was Casey’s primary concern.
“I think our young core is coming along in a good way,” he said, “but I wouldn’t say they’re right ready to step through the door right now. They’re young guys. That would be the reason I would not say that this is the year we have to do it because I know they have a lot to learn.”
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Casey is right. The Raptors' bench has a net rating of plus-8.7, second-best in the NBA. But with Norman Powell being nudged out of the rotation lately, four of the team’s five top bench players are 25 or younger and, combined, they have just 198 minutes of playoff experience. That’ll scare a coach. (Powell, for the record, has 433 minutes.)
The one guy with significant playoff experience is veteran wing C.J. Miles, but his postseason track record is abysmal. In 34 games, he has averaged 6.7 points, shot 39.1 percent from the field and 26.5 percent from the 3-point line. Much of that experience came when he was very young in Utah, but he went to the playoffs the last two seasons with Indiana, and those were especially poor showings: 11 games, 4.8 points, 33.9 percent shooting, 19.4 percent 3-point shooting.
Clutch struggles
It was Lowry, not Casey, who brought up another dark spot on the Raptors’ recent ledger: They’ve gone cold in clutch situations over the past seven weeks.
“Just finishing games better,” Lowry said when asked about areas for Raptors improvement. “When we’re in close games, finishing better.”
All year, the Raptors have not been a good clutch team. They’re 14-13 when games are within five points in the final five minutes, and their net rating is minus-11.9 in those situations.
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But it’s been especially bad lately. Going back to Jan. 9, the Raptors are 4-7 in clutch situations. Their offensive rating is 96.6 points per 100 possessions, and their defensive rating is 120.3. That’s a net of minus-23.7, which ranks 27th in that span — ahead of only tanking teams Orlando, Dallas and Phoenix.
The prime culprits have been Lowry and DeRozan. In the Raptors’ last 11 clutch situations, Lowry has scored 2.1 points on 33.3 percent shooting and 12.5 percent 3-point shooting. DeRozan has averaged 3.3 points on 40.6 percent shooting. When the playoffs come, the Raptors will need to rely on their two top stars to close out games, but that’s not happening now.
So-so shooting
The Raptors have gone to great lengths to change the offense and create open looks for a variety of shooters, but there is one hitch in that approach: These are not great shooters.
Toronto is shooting 35.5 percent from the 3-point line, which ranks 21st in the league. That makes an offense designed, in part, to create more open 3-pointers an iffy proposition. The charts below compare the Raptors’ 2016-17 3-point shooting, broken down by the proximity of the nearest defender, with this year’s 3-point shooting.
| 2016-17 | 3-pts, closest defender | |
| Distance | % of shots taken (rank) | 3-point FG % (rank) |
| 2-4 feet | 4.0 (10) | 30.1 (12) |
| 4-6 feet | 11.2 (15) | 35.6 (15) |
| 6-plus feet | 14.6 (25) | 39.0 (12) |
| 2017-18 | 3-pts, closest defender | |
| Distance | % of shots taken (rank) | 3-point FG % (rank) |
| 2-4 feet | 5.7 (5) | 31.1 (14) |
| 4-6 feet | 12.7 (16) | 34.3 (18) |
| 6-plus feet | 19.8 (7) | 37.6 (22) |
The Raptors were above average (39.0 percent) on wide-open 3s last year, which explains why they wanted more of those shots this year. But they’ve been in the bottom third of the league (37.6 percent) at knocking down even wide-open looks this season. That’s a red flag.
Road woes
The Raptors will be under some pressure to come up with the No. 1 seed in the East this year, and Casey said it would be a good accomplishment for the franchise more than anything else.
“It’s important moreso for our organization and our growth pattern that we have, and pride,” Casey said. “We have put in a lot of time and work and sweat, where people doubted us… It’s important, but again, if we are [the No. 1 or No. 2 seed] where we have home-court advantage, that’s just as important for this season. For the big picture, it’ll be a feather in our cap and a motivational piece to finish at the top.”
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But the Raptors have not been a great road team this year, and that’s a factor here, too. They’re 17-12, which is good enough for second in the East, but they’ve loaded up on wins against bad teams to compile that mark. The Raptors are 11-2 against sub-.500 teams on the road, and just 6-10 against teams over .500.
This relates to Casey’s concerns about the youth on his bench — the Raptors reserves are considerably less effective in away games, as the chart shows.
| Scoring | Off. rating | Def. rating | Net rating | |
| Starters, home | 70.1 | 111.3 | 102.5 | 8.8 |
| Starters, road | 72.4 | 112.1 | 106.1 | 6.0 |
| Bench, home | 42.8 | 112.1 | 97.8 | 14.3 |
| Bench, road | 38.6 | 106.7 | 103.7 | 3.0 |
At home, the bench has a plus-14.3 net efficiency rating, but on the road that is just plus-3.0. Only two other teams (Philadelphia and New York) have bigger disparities between how the bench plays at home vs. the road.
LeBron James
It’s simple, and it’s the problem that any East team hoping to reach the NBA Finals has to accept. For seven straight years, the conference has been represented by James’ team, and no matter the troubles Cleveland is working through now, the James problem is not going anywhere.
“As long as you have LeBron as your leader and the head of your team,” Casey said, “you always have a chance to be good.”
Casey has experienced this firsthand. The Raptors have been eliminated by James’ Cavaliers in each of the last two playoffs, and James was a wrecking ball in both series. The litany of Raps defenders he laid to waste is long: DeMarre Carroll, Powell, Terrence Ross, Patrick Patterson, James Johnson, P.J. Tucker.
In the 10 playoff games, James shot better than 50 percent every time, scoring 30.0 points with 8.4 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game. But the real story of his dominance is told with his shooting: 60.1 percent from the field and 41.7 percent from the 3-point line.
The Raptors have had no one on hand who could slow down James in the last two years. This year? Rookie OG Anunoby would get big minutes on James, but after him, it’s the likes of Powell and Miles.
Getting to the Finals probably means knocking off James’ Cavs, in the second round or the conference finals. Toronto has had no luck reining in James the last two postseasons. Could they do it this time? It’s a tough question, one of a few for this Raptors team.