The Raptors have used player development and talented additions to improve each of the past five seasons and now are clawing at the Cavaliers for the top seed in the Eastern Conference.
Toronto and general manager Masai Ujiri will not be able to rest on their laurels, however. In an offseason where most teams are loaded with salary cap space, the Raptors instead will be hoping to keep an All-Star guard in town without much other room to build.
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Let’s take a look at their free agents, salary cap space and assets for this summer before breaking down what needs to be done.
Potential free agents: DeMar DeRozan ($10 million player option), Bismack Biyombo ($3 million player option), Luis Scola (unrestricted), James Johnson (unrestricted) and Jason Thompson (unrestricted)
Likely cap space: None
Realistic maximum cap space (using $92 million estimate): $18.8 million
2016 NBA Draft assets: Own first and lesser of Knicks/Nuggets firsts. No second round choices.
At one time, it looked like the Raptors could be major players in free agency this summer. However, they made the choice to strike earlier by signing DeMarre Carroll and Cory Joseph while also extending Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross in 2015.
Even though neither Ross nor Valancinas will be paid substantially more in 2016-17 than the cap holds they would have had as restricted free agents, that difference of a little less than $5 million could matter if All-Star shooting guard DeRozan ends up wearing a different jersey next season. DeRozan certainly will decline his cheap player option and become an unrestricted free agent, so the Raptors could lose him without compensation or the right to match any offer. That gives 26-year-old all the leverage in an offseason where he likely will command a maximum salary.
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Complicating matters further, most of the Raptors’ other free agents are worth bringing back. Biyombo certainly will turn down his player option after his best season, while role players Scola and Johnson also contributed to this successful season as they hit unrestricted free agency. While Toronto may let one or all three of those players go get paid elsewhere, replacing them will not be easy as the Raptors bid in a crowded marketplace.
If DeRozan returns, their best avenue to add a free agent comes in the form of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which will be $5,628,000 next season. Biyombo’s situation compounds this because, as a non-Bird free agent, the Raptors will need to use cap space or an exception to sign him if he commands more than $3.37 million in 2016-17 salary, which seems definite at this point.
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Fortunately, Toronto possesses another quality asset at their disposal. Beyond their own first round selection, the Raptors also have the rights to the lesser of the Knicks and Nuggets’ picks. That should be in the No. 7 to No. 11 range, which carries a reasonable expectation of an eventual rotation player on an insanely cheap contract as the cap rises in 2016 and beyond. If they want to be even bolder, the Raptors can acquire more established players using those picks and the fascinating group of young players they have collected over the past few seasons: Lucas Nogueira, Bruno Caboclo, Delon Wright and Norman Powell.
With Kyle Lowry hitting free agency in 2017, Ujiri and the Raptors have another fascinating opportunity to balance present and long-term interests. What they prioritize will have a major impact on the Eastern Conference hierarchy and the league as a whole.