Back in 2019, our Micah Adams tried to predict who would win the 3-Point Contest during All-Star Saturday Night by looking at how each player in the competition fared from all five spots on the floor where the racks are placed.
He turned out to be wrong — sorry, Micah — but it sure was a fun exercise, so we're going to do it again.
This year's 3-Point Contest participants are CJ McCollum, Trae Young, Zach LaVine, Desmond Bane, Karl-Anthony Towns, Fred VanVleet, Luke Kennard and Patty Mills. That's four All-Stars in Young, LaVine, Towns and VanVleet, plus four of the league's sharpest shooters in McCollum, Bane, Kennard and Mills.
Will LaVine become the first player in NBA history to win the dunk and 3-Point contest in their career? Can Towns, who calls himself the "greatest big man shooter of all time," take one home for the 7-footers? Will a non-All-Star show the All-Stars how it's done?
Let's talk this one through one spot at a time.
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Left corner
Players either start here or end here.
Mills (23) leads the way in makes from the left corner to this point of the season, but LaVine (15) isn't far behind him and has been much, much more efficient, connecting on them at a — are you sitting down for this? — 57.7 percent clip.
LaVine put his money rack in the left corner last year. Based on how automatic he's been from that spot this season, don't be surprised if he does it again.
| Player | 3PT FG | 3PT FG% |
| CJ McCollum | 12-35 | 34.3 |
| Trae Young | 3-4 | 75.0 |
| Zach LaVine | 15-26 | 57.7 |
| Desmond Bane | 22-55 | 40.0 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 5-14 | 35.7 |
| Fred VanVleet | 17-34 | 50.0 |
| Luke Kennard | 7-16 | 43.8 |
| Patty Mills | 23-56 | 41.1 |
Left wing
This is pretty dang close with everyone but Towns and Young being in the same ballpark in terms of makes and only 6.0 percentage points separating the most efficient (Kennard) from the least efficient (Bane).
In saying that, keep an eye on VanVleet (62), LaVine (50) and Mills (52). They've each made 50-plus 3s from the left wing this season at a similar rate. They seem to like this spot.
| Player | 3PT FG | 3PT FG% |
| CJ McCollum | 45-114 | 39.5 |
| Trae Young | 36-87 | 41.4 |
| Zach LaVine | 50-121 | 41.3 |
| Desmond Bane | 47-125 | 37.6 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 29-75 | 38.7 |
| Fred VanVleet | 62-159 | 39.0 |
| Luke Kennard | 48-110 | 43.6 |
| Patty Mills | 52-127 | 40.9 |
Top of the arc
This has to be where Towns puts his money rack, right?
Not only is Towns (59) a shade behind Young (64) for the most makes from the top of the arc, but he's been the most efficient of the group. Only Bane can come close to him in that department.
This is where the big fella shines as a 3-point shooter.
| Player | 3PT FG | 3PT FG% |
| CJ McCollum | 20-57 | 35.1 |
| Trae Young | 64-178 | 36.0 |
| Zach LaVine | 29-90 | 32.2 |
| Desmond Bane | 36-76 | 47.4 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 59-122 | 48.4 |
| Fred VanVleet | 41-123 | 33.3 |
| Luke Kennard | 23-51 | 45.1 |
| Patty Mills | 29-79 | 36.7 |
Right wing
You think VanVleet was good from the left wing? He's even better from the right wing.
Mills is also cash from this spot. I promise his shooting percentage isn't a typo.
| Player | 3PT FG | 3PT FG% |
| CJ McCollum | 41-99 | 41.4 |
| Trae Young | 52-133 | 39.1 |
| Zach LaVine | 27-76 | 35.5 |
| Desmond Bane | 45-102 | 44.1 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 14-44 | 31.8 |
| Fred VanVleet | 64-142 | 44.4 |
| Luke Kennard | 45-99 | 45.5 |
| Patty Mills | 58-116 | 50.0 |
Right corner
What the wings are to VanVleet, the corners are to LaVine.
Once again, LaVine is up there in makes and laps everyone in efficiency. Whether he puts his money rack in the left or right corner, look for him to start and finish strong.
| Player | 3PT FG | 3PT FG% |
| CJ McCollum | 10-23 | 43.5 |
| Trae Young | 3-9 | 33.3 |
| Zach LaVine | 14-25 | 56.0 |
| Desmond Bane | 12-28 | 42.9 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 3-14 | 21.4 |
| Fred VanVleet | 16-36 | 44.4 |
| Luke Kennard | 14-30 | 46.7 |
| Patty Mills | 24-65 | 36.9 |
The pick: Fred VanVleet
I promise I'm not showing my NBA Canada bias here.
The argument for VanVleet is that he's been money from four of the five spots in the 3-point contest and oh, by the way, only Stephen Curry (4.6) is making more 3s than him (4.0) on a per-game basis this season.
To boot, VanVleet is one of the league's best standstill 3-point shooters. According to NBA.com, he's one of 275 players who have attempted at least 50 catch-and-shoot 3s this season. Want to guess how many have made them at a higher rate than VanVleet?
Four.
LaVine and Young are two of those players, but they haven't made nearly as many catch-and-shoot 3s as VanVleet. Volume matters.
Don't sleep on Mills or Kennard, though. Mills has made the fourth-most 3s in the NBA this season while Kennard has been one of the most efficient. Kennard is also the only player in this season's 3-point contest shooting at least 40 percent from each location.
