The Pistons chose wisely to spend some of their 2016 cap space on Tobias Harris at the trade deadline, but doing so significantly lowers the stakes and possibilities of their offseason.
That said, they still have enough cap space to help make their team better moving forward either through adding another starting-caliber player or a few depth pieces at positions of need. If they keep making aggressive moves like the Wednesday trade of Jodie Meeks to the Magic, they might end up surprise players on the market.
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Before we get into that, let’s take a look at their free agents and cap situation.
Potential free agents: Andre Drummond (restricted), Anthony Tolliver (unrestricted), Cameron Bairstow (non-guaranteed), Steve Blake (unrestricted), Joel Anthony (non-guaranteed) and Lorenzo Brown (non-guaranteed)
Likely cap space: $21 million
Realistic maximum cap space (using $94 million estimate): $24.3 million
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One of the commonly held justifications for Drummond not getting an extension last summer was that waiting created temporary cap space that the Pistons could use like the Spurs did with Kawhi Leonard in 2015. The gap of about $14 million between Drummond’s $8.2 million cap hold and his eventual maximum salary aligns pretty directly with Detroit’s usable space.
Coach and team president Stan Van Gundy made the wise decision at the trade deadline to cut into that space by trading for Harris, who will make $48 million over the next three seasons. It is exceedingly unlikely that the Pistons could have done better with that space in free agency than the talented young forward. Harris, 23, was reinvigorated in Detroit and averaged 16.6 points and 6.2 rebounds a game with efficient shooting.
They also traded for Rockets big man Donatas Motiejunas at the deadline, but the Pistons rescinded that deal because of health concerns. They ended up using the pick they would have sent to Houston on Marquette forward Henry Ellenson, who may fill Motiejunas’ intended role as a floor-stretching big man off the bench who can play a little with the starters, as well.
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Having a little less than a maximum salary spot — barring another move — the Pistons should try to strike early on a smaller name who could be a useful part of their team, as the Trail Blazers did with Al-Farouq Aminu last season. This year’s market will be much more lucrative, but it would only take one player to say yes to make that tact fruitful. If they feel comfortable with him defending opposing small forwards some of the time, Orlando’s Evan Fournier could be a compelling target later in free agency because he can create and hit open shots, two of Detroit’s bigger needs at the moment. Restricted free agents are always a gamble because their team can match but a strong offer sheet could be too rich for the ambitious Magic.
Detroit would also be a reasonable trade partner for any teams that need to clear space early in free agency, since most other franchises will still be gunning for the biggest fish remaining. Those acquisitions from cap-clearing teams have been some of the best values in the last few offseasons.
At the moment, the Pistons’ most glaring need is at backup point guard. Trading Brandon Jennings in the Harris deal expedited this issue, but it was coming regardless since Jennings’ contract expired at the end of the season. Unfortunately for Detroit, 2016 is a shallow point guard class, and there are more than a few teams that may feel pressure to pay backups starter money since there are not enough good players to go around.
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In the fall, another challenge arises. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will be up for an extension this offseason as well. His defensive versatility and overall impact will mean a high price tag despite his offensive inconsistency, but the Pistons are in a different position entering next offseason. Drummond’s new contract will reduce Detroit’s 2017 space significantly, so locking up Caldwell-Pope at a reasonable-if-high rate would make sense rather than watching him increase his value to max level with a breakout season, particularly with the cap rising again so rival teams will have plenty of money to spend.
Having a significant number of players under contract and comparatively little cap space makes Detroit a natural fit to make a quick, strong bet on a single player who can be a part of their rotation and ideally start in the near or long term. Getting an early commitment on the right guy could strengthen their team for years to come.