After four up-and-down years in the league, Patrick Williams truly is a beauty in the eye of the beholder prospect.
Williams was drafted with the No. 4 pick as one of the youngest players in the 2020 class. That necessitated some patience with his development, and he has shown flashes of a very valuable player. More often, however, he's either been hurt or disappeared on the floor.
There is certainly potential. He's one of the best second draft prospects available this summer. The Bulls will have his restricted free agency rights, but will they be willing to pony up if another team wants to throw a huge offer at Williams given their tight cap sheet and refusal to pay into the luxury tax next season?
Here's a look at the Williams situation from all angles.
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What is Patrick Williams worth according to impact models?
There are two things that a player needs in order to have a high valuation in a salary model — a lot of minutes and good impact on the court.
So far, Williams has had neither.
The most publicly respected models are all in unison on his mediocre play.
| Metric | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| DARKO | -0.6 | 220th |
| Estimated Plus-Minus | -0.7 | 196th |
| LEBRON | -1.4 | 402nd |
Williams is expecting to be paid like a good starter, but he looks more like one of the first guys off the bench. Making matters worse for him, he has averaged only 53 games per season.
Williams gave the Bulls about $5 million worth of production last year based on my salary model. If we can assume that he will buck the trend and play a normal amount of minutes, then he'd be worth a little less than $10 million.
That $10 million valuation isn't quite fair, though. Even four years into the league, Williams is still only 22 years old. He will likely improve. How much is the question. He was reportedly seeking over $20 million per year last summer on an extension with the team, according to ESPN's Zach Lowe. He would have to more than double his impact on the floor to justify that figure.
Is that type of improvement possible? Yes. Is it likely? He would be an extreme outlier for that to happen.
Even giving Williams an optimistic improvement of 25 percent better than what he contributed last season and good health, he'd be worth around $12 million.
What is Patrick Williams worth according to eye test?
Williams hasn't been a great NBA player thus far, but the PWill optimists have a good case for why he will become one.
Williams was drafted largely because of his physical tools. At 6-7 and 215 pounds with a 6-11 wingspan, he has the size and strength to guard the apex wing scorers in the league. He has been pretty good on that end of the floor, too, although his processing speed lags as a help defender.
Williams will probably be a good defender, maybe even getting some All-Defensive team buzz over the course of his new deal in a best-case scenario. If his offense becomes passable, then he easily becomes a $20 million player.
That offense is the problem. Williams has started 175 of his 213 games for the Bulls and only cracked 20 or more points 10 times. He's broken past 30 points once — in a meaningless Game 82 of the 2021-22 regular season. More often than not, he completely disappears on that end of the floor.
Williams was drafted with some hope of on-ball creation after playing some point guard in high school. He can get to a midrange jumper, but that's about it. His ballhandling is shaky to put it kindly. He regularly will dribble it off his leg on drives to the rim. He can make the occasional spectacular pass off the dribble or thunderous dunk, but there will be weeks between those highlight plays where he does nothing of consequence.
The one area where Williams is really good is as a 3-point shooter. He's hit 41.0 percent of his attempts over his career. That sounds great on paper, but he only took a career-high 3.4 attempts per game last season. He will regularly pass out of open looks or hesitate, allowing the defense to recover. He has sped up his release considerably, but it's still not fast.
A plus defender with size who can hit wide-open 3s is still a very valuable player in the NBA. Add in room for improvement, and it's easy to see why some team is going to talk themselves into giving Williams a lot of money.
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What should the Bulls do with Patrick Williams?
I've watched over 90 percent of Williams' games since he came into the NBA, including preseason and Summer League, and I still do not have a good feel of the type of player he will become. There is a massive difference in potential outcomes for him.
Williams optimists will point to players like Mikal Bridges, O.G. Anunoby and Jaden McDaniels as examples of what he could one day become. That seems possible but highly unlikely.
Here's how he compares to those players in DARKO:
A more medium-end outcome would be wings like Jerami Grant, Harrison Barnes or Deni Avdija.
Williams' low-end comp if his development stalls are players like Saddiq Bey, De'Andre Hunter or Marvin Williams — good fringe starters or first guys off the bench.
So should the Bulls gamble potentially $100 million over the next four years on one of these outcomes?
If I were the Bulls, then I would try to sign and trade Williams rather than place a risky bet on his development. He seems like a great third contract candidate and a very bad second contract one. He will likely underperform at least the first few years of his new deal. If he does end up hitting, then he will be up for an even bigger deal and have competition as an unrestricted free agent.
Rather than sinking more time and energy into a player who has not been developing in their system, I would see if he can thrive in a different environment. If he does end up becoming a great wing in his mid-20s, then the Bulls (or anyone else) can make a good offer down the road.
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Patrick Williams best landing spots
If the Bulls do want to keep Williams, then they are going to have to pay. Several of the rebuilding teams around the league have significant cap space to spend, and there aren't many young players to spend it on. Tyrese Maxey and Immanuel Quickley are the only better options, and they are locks to re-sign with their own teams.
Teams who want younger players will have to pick between Williams, Isaac Okoro, Obi Toppin, Simone Fontecchio and Saddiq Bey. That is an uninspiring list. Williams stands out as the one guy with a lot of upside.
The Pistons have the most money to spend this summer. They're projected by Spotrac to have $64 million available. The Sixers, Magic, Jazz, Thunder, Spurs and Hornets also have enough to offer Williams over $20 million annually.
In addition to the Thunder and Hornets, the Raptors have been mentioned as a possible landing spot for Williams in restricted free agency, per Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports. Other teams could enter the sweepstakes, but they would have to make moves to clear space or engage the Bulls in a sign-and-trade.
Williams' role hasn't been great with the Bulls. Like Lauri Markkanen before him, he could be one of these players who needs a change of scenery to thrive.
