With their core under contract and a new coach hired, the Pacers can aggressively pursue a smaller number of free agents well-suited to complement the team long term. However, desperation moves could create salary obligations, which in turn could hamstring Indiana during the timeframe when Paul George and Myles Turner are on team-friendly contracts.
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With that balance in mind, let’s take a look at the Pacers’ free agents, salary cap space and assets for this summer before breaking down what needs to be done.
Potential free agents: Ian Mahinmi (unrestricted), Jordan Hill (unrestricted), Solomon Hill (unrestricted via declined option), Ty Lawson (unrestricted), Glenn Robinson III (non-guaranteed) and Shayne Whittington (non-guaranteed).
Likely cap space: $24.8 million
Realistic maximum cap space (using $92 million estimate): $32.3 million
2016 NBA Draft assets: Own first- (No. 20) and second- (No. 50) round picks. The Pacers are the only NBA franchise with no draft obligations in either direction.
With Nate McMillan now hired to replace Frank Vogel, the Pacers have a very straightforward summer plan: They must draft well and make the best possible use of their financial flexibility.
With George, Turner, George Hill, C.J. Miles, Monta Ellis, Rodney Stuckey and Lavoy Allen already under contract, Indiana could choose to use their considerable cap space on one or two players while maintaining a reasonably deep team. However, that requires the right player choosing the Pacers, and that will be challenging considering how many other teams can make big offers this summer.
If Indiana strikes out on the biggest names, it could be a team that plays a role in the restricted free agent market. Harrison Barnes, Evan Fournier, Jordan Clarkson and Allen Crabbe all make sense alongside their current core.
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The Pacers’ most important free agent is Ian Mahinmi. He has blossomed in Indiana and deserves a spot in a team’s rotation as a center who can start or come off the bench. As an unrestricted free agent, Mahinmi can leave if he chooses depending on what teams show interest.
By declining Solomon Hill’s fourth-year player option, Indiana made the former first-round pick an unrestricted free agent. Declining his option prevents the Pacers from offering him a 2016-17 salary higher than $2.3 million, the number once attached to the option they declined. The athletic swingman has not displayed the skill necessary to start but he plays hard and makes an impact on defense. His ability to play some minutes at power forward helped Indiana in the playoffs and could be a selling point in free agency.
It may not be likely, but the Pacers should definitely listen if teams call about either Ellis or Stuckey. The team’s two scoring combo guards, both signed last summer, will combine to make almost $18 million next season and largely duplicate one another. The market may be tepid, but scorers always seem to draw interest. Clearing one or both could open the door for a more balanced and hopefully younger collection of perimeter players.
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As was the case last year, Indiana would benefit substantially from patience. George and Turner are under contract for 2017-18, and next summer should end up being a better time to strike on free agents. Why? Other franchises might spend recklessly this summer, and 2017’s class looks better and deeper than 2016’s.
That would position the Pacers to cash in once other teams have cashed out.