After some remarkable machinations, the Magic have a situation many general managers dream of: young talent, an exciting new coach, a lottery pick and a ton of cap space.
That flexibility provides the chance for Orlando to go in a few different directions though options will depend on which free agents want to join up. If that openness is not enough, this could be the right time for the Magic to sell high on young players that do not mesh with their long-term vision.
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Let’s take a look at their free agents, salary cap space and assets for this summer before breaking down what needs to be done.
Potential free agents: Evan Fournier (restricted), Brandon Jennings (unrestricted), Ersan Ilyasova (partially guaranteed), Andrew Nicholson (restricted), Jason Smith (unrestricted), Dewayne Dedmon (restricted) and Devyn Marble (non-guaranteed).
Likely cap space: $40.5 million.
Realistic maximum cap space (using $92 million estimate): $46.6 million.
2016 NBA Draft assets: No. 11, No. 41 and No. 47 (from the Bulls).
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Evan Fournier. (Getty Images)
At the trade deadline, the Magic made a massive bet on this summer by trading about $25 million in 2016-17 salary (Tobias Harris and Channing Frye) for what essentially amounts to expiring contracts. Those moves plus exiling Maurice Harkless to Portland before the season transformed the Magic into a major player in the 2016 free agent sweepstakes with at least $40 million available for new additions.
Orlando has a talented foundation to spend around, including Aaron Gordon (20 years old), Mario Hezonja (21), Elfrid Payton (22), Victor Oladipo (24), Nikola Vucevic (25) and restricted free agent Fournier (23). That group plus another lottery pick this year provides enough depth to justify concentrating that cap space on a small number of players. However, the Magic will still need to secure those stars either by getting free agents to sign on or making trades to absorb higher-salary stars from teams looking to open up space or bring in young talent. After all, Orlando took a serious run at All-Star Paul Millsap last year and ended up with nothing to show for it.
Incidentally, the Magic have one of the restricted free agents another team may try to pry away. Fournier had a solid season and has done well with substantially more playing time since the Magic acquired him from the Nuggets for Arron Afflalo two years ago. At 23, the Frenchman is among the youngest free agents and should be able to improve from here and become a reliable secondary creator in a successful offense. However, he is not worth a max contract even in this market, so there is a possibility that another team could make an offer Orlando would be wise not to match. Fournier makes the situation even more challenging because his modest cap hold of $5.7 million would be perfect if the team is successful recruiting free agents. If that occurs, the Magic could spend most or all of their space and use Bird rights to go over the cap on Fournier, creating a deeper team without even stepping into the luxury tax this season.
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Ilyasova presents another fascinating situation. The stretch power forward’s contract is worth $8.4 million for next season, but only $400,000 is guaranteed. The Magic could keep him, cut him before his July 1 guarantee date or find another team that wants to take his salary on in a trade. The trade likely would have to be worked out in June, then formalized in July because so few teams have salary cap space right now. That narrow window could produce a transaction that works for both teams as it clears another $400,000 for Orlando but gives the other team a talented player on a one-year contract.
Orlando has also inspired intrigue around the league because the deepest part of the 2016 free agent class is at center. The Magic already have Vucevic on a reasonable contract for another three seasons, but new head coach Frank Vogel has done well with more defensively capable big men. Even if the Magic bring in another center, they could keep Vucevic because his $11.8 million contract is not too expensive for an elite backup.
Plus, the Magic could always hold onto the 7-footer who averaged 18.2 points and 8.9 rebounds per game last season for when some team inevitably suffers an injury and will sacrifice assets to stay afloat, like the Wizards trading a first-round pick for Marcin Gortat after Emeka Okafor’s injury a few years ago. Orlando also has two restricted free agent big men of their own: Dedmon would be a smart developmental risk under Vogel while Nicholson has shown potential as a stretch four.
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Like almost every young team, the Magic also need to determine whether their existing pieces fit together. They moved Harris partially to clear 2016 cap space but also to open up playing time for Gordon. After the trade, the No. 4 overall pick in 2014 averaged 12.0 points and 7.3 rebounds in 27.9 minutes per game. At the same time, they used the No. 2 pick in 2013 on Oladipo and the No. 5 pick on Mario Hezonja last year. If management identifies any of them or point guard Elfrid Payton as incongruent with their core, moving them early would be substantially better than waiting too long, particularly in the case of Oladipo because he is eligible for extension negotiations this offseason.
The Magic front office created a massive opportunity to add talent this summer and now has to make good on it. This young foundation certainly helps, but they will need to be persuasive, judicious and lucky to navigate this minefield correctly.