Billy Donovan, Thunder must fix third-quarter problems to become true contender

The Thunder were leading on Monday night, 74-67, with 6:37 to play in the third quarter when Pelicans big man Anthony Davis lined up a shot from the top of the 3-point arc. He came up a basketball or two short for an airball, which was followed on the other end by an isolation pull-up by Carmelo Anthony over E’Twaun Moore that put Oklahoma City up by nine.

Lately, for the Thunder, that’s the last place they want to be. The third quarter has been a house of horrors for OKC, outscored in each third quarter of their last six losses, by an average of 8.0 points. That included the game against the Pelicans. Predictably, Anthony’s jumper was followed by a 16-5 Pelicans run over a four-minute span that turned a comfortable lead into a deficit, and OKC would go on to lose the game, 114-107.

"The second half," coach Billy Donovan said, outlining his team’s problem, "our ability to sustain the defensive level and us being able to sustain and get really good shots. We’ve got to be able to lay the first half and the second half somewhat similar — it doesn’t have to be exactly the same, but somewhat similar. We have not been able to do that."

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If you’re a Thunder fan, this act is getting old. The assembly of the trio of Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony brought with it expectations and excitement, and there have been stretches in just about every game OKC has played this year where the cause for that excitement is evident. Often, this team looks like one of the best three or four in the league.

But it disintegrates so quickly. In their last six losses (they’re 3-6 in their previous nine games), compare Oklahoma City’s first quarters to its third, and you see how the team has developed a habit of fast starts out of the locker room to open the game, but much slower starts coming out for the second half.

Here's how the Thunder's losses in November break down with their biggest first quarter lead followed by the third-quarter deficit:

Over the course of the first fifth of the season, the Thunder have been the second-best team in the league in the first quarter, with a margin of plus-7.7 points. In their last nine games, they shoot 46.0 percent in the first quarter, and make 42.9 percent of their 3s.

In the third, that all falls apart. Over the last nine games, the Thunder have been the third-worst team in the league in the third quarter, ahead of only the Suns and Kings. They have a minus-4.1 margin, and they are shooting 38.6 percent from the field.

In those last six losses, they have shot 33.6 percent from the field in the third quarter, while opponents have shot 49.2 percent. Much has been made of the Thunder’s poor performance in the clutch (they’re 1-8 in games within five points with five minutes or fewer to play). But clutch play is variable, and you can expect those numbers to even out over time.

The deflation that comes in each third quarter is the real culprit of the Thunder’s stumbling and bumbling opening month. So what’s behind that? As Donovan said, there is an issue with consistency, but why can’t the Thunder find that consistency?

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One scout who has seen the Thunder a few times puts some of the onus on Donovan.

"They’re not a great ball-movement team any way you look at it," the scout said, "but when you get into the second half of the game, when you have to make adjustments, they can be predictable. They were the same way last year, really. That isolation stuff they have gets a little easier to defend once you see it a few times, and if you bottle that up, they don’t do a great job creating open looks."

The Thunder do run isolation more than any other team in the league, at 13.1 percent of their possessions, and they’re not all that good at it — OKC ranks 19th in efficiency on isolation plays, scoring 0.87 points per possession. They’re even less good at it when the opposing defense has seen their sets and can figure out what’s coming. That’s where Donovan and his players could be more creative with the offense.

Another problem that pops up in the Thunder’s third quarters is their inability to control the paint. That is, in part, a product of more lax defensive effort. But it is also a result of a roster shortage.

The Thunder have no one behind center Steven Adams, and he is being asked to carry a heavy load in the middle. The only other Thunder center is little-used Dakari Johnson. Wing-oriented forwards George and Anthony man the power forward spot, with Jerami Grant (6-8) and Patrick Patterson (6-9) as the undersized frontcourt backups.

There would be a lot of pressure on Adams even if he had a decent backup. But he doesn’t. Those last six losses have shown the cost of that — the Thunder get killed in the paint in the third quarter. Overall, they’re a break-even team when it comes to points in the paint (39.5-39.5 points per game). But in their last six losses, they were outscored in the paint in the third quarter every time (except an 8-8 tie against San Antonio), and by a total count of 76-44, or 5.3 points per third quarter. That’s a sizable gap.

However you look at it, the Thunder have a big third-quarter problem. They’re not going to be anything close to the team that was expected unless they address that.