Big issue 1: Keep growing. That’s pretty much the only issue the Nuggets have in their immediate future. This year’s playoff run, which included two Game 7s, both against teams with far greater reservoirs of postseason experience, will be invaluable in building up a team featuring guards Jamal Murray and Gary Harris in the backcourt and star center Nikola Jokic in the frontcourt.
Harris is the old man of that troika, and he does not turn 25 until September. Jokic just turned 24, and Murray is only 22. There should be big things ahead for the franchise as long as those three are on board.
That’s not to say there aren’t concerns. Harris had a difficult season, battling through a variety of injuries — his hip, his adductor, his hamstring — that kept him out 25 games and knocked down his stats when he did play. Harris dropped from 17.5 points per game last year to 12.9 this year, and his effective field-goal percentage went from 57.0 to 48.8. He was better in the playoffs, but he’d do well to come back with a clean slate next season.
Jokic, for all his brilliance as a scorer and a passer, remains a big question defensively. The Nuggets did well to better cover for Jokic’s weak spots, in part because Paul Millsap was healthy this year. But Jokic will always be a plodding figure in the middle of the Denver D, and that’s always going to be an area to exploit for opposing offenses.
Murray appears headed to stardom and is capable of averaging 25 points for a full season soon. He is not a great playmaker, but Jokic’s passing makes up for that. Murray did slip when it came to getting to the rim this year, and his free-throw rate dropped. It’s nitpicking, but that’s something for him to work on going forward.
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Big issue 2: The Nuggets have never been shy about making a bold move, even if most of those moves — remember, they nearly signed Dwyane Wade three years ago — have not come to fruition.
The front office now has to grapple with its own success, which isn’t an easy thing. The team has a collection of valued young players, and Denver could try to make a home-run move, seeking to take advantage of its wave of success. Or it could sit back and let the young guys develop.
The boldest of moves, of course, would be to trade for Pelicans star Anthony Davis. There’s been no indication that Davis wants to be in Denver, but the Nuggets could take the same risk that Oklahoma City and Toronto took before them — trade for an impending free agent (Davis can hit the market in 2020) and hope to persuade him to sign on the following July.
The Nuggets would have no interest in giving up Murray or Jokic, but Harris would have to be part of the deal. Putting injured rookie Michael Porter Jr. into the package as well as some combination of Malik Beasley, Monte Morris and future draft picks would make a compelling offer to New Orleans.
A Davis trade could make the Nuggets the favorites in the West, too. A lineup built around Jokic and Davis with Murray in the backcourt would be tough to contend with for anyone in the conference. Davis might not stay, but a trip to the Finals might be enough to get him to stick around.
Free-agent outlook: The only free-agent question the Nuggets must answer is what to do with Millsap, who has a $30 million payday next summer — but that money comes at the team’s option. Millsap was solid at the power forward spot and a valued veteran leader, but he also is 34 years old and not the player he was when he signed in Denver.
Millsap is not worth $30 million for the Nuggets, but at the same time, if Denver does not keep him, the team would still be around the salary cap and would have very limited options at power forward. Millsap has said he wants to keep playing in Denver, and the Nuggets would probably like to have him back, at least short-term.
The most likely outcome is the Nuggets declining the final-year option, but Millsap accepting a lesser deal for two or three seasons.
The young folks: They’re all young, of course, which makes Denver the envy of the league and makes it still a surprise that this team won 54 games and challenged the Warriors for the top seed in the West.
Murray’s numbers — 18.2 points, 4.8 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game — held up in the playoffs, and he was a better scorer who forced his way to the free-throw line more. He handled the big stage well. That’s a good sign.
Also a good sign is that two of the team’s key bench players are 23 or younger — Beasley and Morris. Beasley had a breakout year, going from 3.3 points per game in 84 games in his first two seasons to 11.3 points in 81 games this year. He took only 110 3-pointers in his first two seasons, but this year, he launched 405 of them and made 40.2 percent.
Morris was a second-round pick in 2017 and played only three games last season. This year, he came on as a valued contributor on both ends, scoring 10.4 points per game on 49.3 percent shooting and 41.4 percent from the 3-point line.
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Wait till next year: The Nuggets have been one of the most aggressive teams when it comes to finding a big move to make, and maybe they’ll make a run at Davis or someone else. Even if they don’t, this is a team stacked with young players and in line to move up in the West if the Warriors are broken up.
There is always the threat of regression after an upward spike like what we’ve seen from Denver this year. That may happen. But if the Nuggets keep getting individual improvement, if Porter can get some meaningful minutes next year, if they keep their win total in the 50 range, this team will keep progressing and will be a threat in the playoffs.
It’s going to be an uncertain offseason most everywhere in the NBA, but the Nuggets have as good a short- and long-term future as anyone.