On the surface, the Western Conference Semifinal series between the Nuggets and Suns is an offensive showcase. Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are all capable of dropping 40-plus points on any given night.
But the outcome of this matchup could very well boil down to how a role player performs on the other end of the floor.
Deandre Ayton's defense on Jokic could be the swing factor in this clash of top-four seeds — and there is reason to believe that Phoenix's big man may be able to limit the effectiveness of the two-time MVP more than your typical center.
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Deandre Ayton has defended Nikola Jokic well in the past
There is no way to completely shut down a player of Jokic's caliber. He is simply too skilled offensively, and he can impact the game in multiple ways.
But Ayton has shown that he can at least make Jokic work for his points. In the 2021 West Semifinals against the Suns, Jokic averaged 25.0 points, 13.3 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game, but he shot 47.7 percent from the field and 27.8 percent from 3-point range, well below his season and career marks.
According to NBA.com's tracking data for that series, Jokic made 27 of his 64 field goal attempts (42.2 percent) and just two of his 12 3-point attempts (16.7 percent) when directly matched up with Ayton.
At 7-0 and 250 pounds, Ayton has the size to hold his ground in the post, but he is also athletic enough to stick with Jokic on dribble drives or cuts.
Jokic even acknowledged Ayton's defensive effort that year, saying that he was the center who gave him the most trouble.
However, it's worth noting that Jokic wasn't exactly playing for an All-Star team during the 2020-21 season. The Nuggets needed backup guards like Facundo Campazzo, Monte Morris and Austin Rivers to log heavy minutes. Denver got swept out of the playoffs by Phoenix, losing three of the four games by double-digits.
With the Suns having to account for better talent around Jokic, the results could be different this time.
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In the three regular season games since that series, Jokic's individual numbers against Ayton have been much better. He has hit 21 of his 33 field goal attempts (63.6 percent) and dished out 17 assists, per NBA.com.
In Denver's Christmas Day win over Phoenix, Jokic totaled 41 points, 15 rebounds and 15 assists in 44 minutes. He greatly benefited from the return of Jamal Murray, who missed the 2021 playoffs and 2021-22 season because of an ACL injury.
That chemistry Jokic has developed with Murray and his other teammates as well as the attention they draw compared to rosters of the past should help him avoid his previous Ayton-related struggles.
Ayton will enter this round with plenty of motivation to prove his success wasn't a fluke, though, setting the stage for what should be a fascinating battle.
"It's going to be fun," Ayton said. "They're the best. Suns basketball, we want to compete and beat the best. That's what we're looking forward to. We know it's not going to be easy, but it's going to be a great series where mano play against mano."
