After firing coach Lionel Hollins and reassigning general manager Billy King, the Nets must be honest with themselves.
They have the third-worst record in the NBA and have been outscored by 7.2 points per game this season. They have markedly less young talent than the other teams at the bottom of the NBA standings. Their only first-round pick in the next three NBA drafts likely will be the Celtics’ 2017 selection.
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The dire present has led many to focus on mismanagement and its long-term ramifications. However, whoever takes the reins next has a truly fascinating opportunity, with underrated potential to start building the foundation of a better team.
No more money problems
After years with the most expensive roster in the NBA, Brooklyn has very little bad money on their books moving forward. The Nets will be paying Deron Williams about $5.5 million a year through the 2019-20 season but that will be a small portion of the rapidly expanding cap as soon as this summer. The players Brooklyn has locked in under contract for next season are Brook Lopez, Thaddeus Young, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Bojan Bogdanovic and Chris McCullough, all of whom are good assets given their skill, age and salaries.
That means the Nets can be players in free agency and aggressively pursue the best players on the market. Trading someone like Young to a team with plentiful salary cap space should be easy, if space needs to be cleared. If stars like Kevin Durant or Al Horford elect to play elsewhere, the Nets then can wait out the market to see who falls through the cracks to be this year’s Jeremy Lin or Bismack Biyombo, two good players who took smaller contracts later in the free agency process.
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That is where the Nets hope their big market can be a help. With so many players hitting free agency, some will end up taking smaller deals than they deserve. The Nets hope those players prioritize market, which could leave them a base of low-cost players to save room for stars, either in 2016 or the future. The 76ers’ approach to minimum salaries for younger players would be a great model to follow for cheap depth, even without Philadelphia’s draft picks.
The other big opportunity for the Nets, if they strike out on free agents, would be to serve as trade partners for the winners of free agency. Teams likely will need to shed salary to open up room, and that will involve trading otherwise useful players. Tiago Splitter, Zaza Pachulia, Jeremy Lamb and Matt Barnes were acquired for basically nothing last summer, and similar players could be on the move this offseason.
What about this season?
The Nets owe the Celtics their 2016 and 2018 first-round picks. The Celtics have the right to swap picks with the Nets in 2017. That takes away any incentive for the Nets to tank. However, once a team such as the Nets faces the reality that it will not make the playoffs or retain its pick, the goal must change to making the best team for the following season and beyond. Those owed draft picks are sunk costs. The next general manager cannot afford to fret over them.
Looking to the future would produce meaningful changes in the present. Take 2013 first-round pick Sergey Karasev. King declined his cheap contract option for next season, and Hollins played him less than 100 minutes. New management must decide on his future quickly and either cut him or play him more.
Ten-day contracts now are available for NBA Development League call-ups. Brooklyn has a clear opportunity for playing time and a visible market, which should be major draws for the best players outside the NBA. If any of them stand out between now and April, the team should have the leverage to make them an offer for the rest of the season plus a cheap option for 2016-17. The Heat used that flexibility last season to bring on Tyler Johnson, now a valuable rotation player making the minimum.
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Along those same lines, the next Nets GM needs to do their best to find a new home for Joe Johnson. While it would be great to find a team willing to deal an asset for the seven-time All-Star, even finding a partner to help the Nets and Johnson agree to a reasonable buyout would be helpful. The Nets are about $1.4 million below the luxury tax line, which caps what they can do on the waiver wire as well as emphasizing how much they are spending on a bad roster. The Nets’ surprising army of guys with player options for next year, such as Shane Larkin, Thomas Robinson and Wayne Ellington, could garner small assets in February as well. If the Nets want to keep them, they can bring them back in the offseason.
Another fascinating opportunity for the Nets comes in the form of Jarrett Jack. While a torn ACL in his right knee ended Jack’s season, his contract for next year is partially guaranteed. That nuance means he can be traded in the span between the end of the season and the end of June, including the period surrounding the 2016 NBA Draft. With one year at $6.3 million, his contract might help a contender looking for a serviceable backup point guard next year. If no one bites, the Nets only have to put $500,000 on their books for the summer, so the risk is minimal.
With an honest evaluation of where the team stands and a willingness to squeeze the most out of every dollar and roster spot, the Nets’ next leaders can turn around the failures of their previous management. That does not mean it will be easy.