Nerlens Noel came off the bench and checked in for the final two minutes of the Mavericks' loss Sunday night against the Thunder. Noel was the last player on the active roster to enter the game. It was yet another frustrating moment for the former top-10 pick, who has seen a precipitous decline in minutes since the start of November.
The former Kentucky star averaged 7.3 points and 6.3 rebounds over 19.4 minutes per game in October, but he's only playing nine minutes per game this month, hitting rock bottom with a DNP (coach's decision) Saturday against the Cavs.
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"Look, minutes have to be earned," Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle said after Dallas' loss to Cleveland (via ESPN). "At this point, if it's between him and [backup center] Salah [Mejri], Salah has earned the minutes. There's no doghouse here. There just isn't. It's pretty simple: You compete, and if you earn minutes, you get minutes. And you've got to compete to keep them, because it's a competitive situation."
It's shocking to see the 23-year-old relegated to bench status on the worst team in the league. The Mavericks have lost 12 of their first 14 games and own the third-worst net rating in the league (minus-9.5) ahead of only the lowly Kings (minus-11.6) and Bulls (minus-12.4). The relationship between Noel and the Mavericks seems like it just isn't working, and there's reason to blame both sides.
Noel accepted the $4.2 million qualifying offer this summer and will become an unrestricted free agent in 2018. Mavericks owner Mark Cuban originally offered Noel a four-year, $70 million, but that was gone once Noel asked for a max deal, according to ESPN's Tim MacMahon. This negotiation laid the groundwork for the current predicament.
Had the Mavericks and Noel reached an agreement on a long-term deal, it's hard to see how Carlisle could keep him on the bench. Teams don't pay players $70 million to watch. Carlisle is an old-school coach who wants to see young guys earn their way onto the floor, and he has that luxury with his track record and little pressure to develop someone on the qualifying offer. Cuban is unlikely to go to bat for Noel now.
This has gone so far as to be a detriment to the team, especially considering Dirk Nowitzki is having the worst statistical season of his career and is a liability defensively. But Nowitzki earned his spot by delivering a championship to Dallas as part of a Hall-of-Fame career. He's getting the Kobe Bryant treatment, albeit much less high maintenance, for better or worse. When Nowitzki is out, why not throw Noel into the lineup with Dennis Smith Jr., Harrison Barnes and Wesley Matthews to see what will happen?
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Well, there's the other side of this situation. Noel has been bad. He easily has the worst net rating on the team (minus-19.1), and his on/off splits are straight out of a horror movie: 96.2 offensive rating and 115.3 defensive rating while on the floor vs. 101.1 offensive rating 106.5 defensive rating while off. Meanwhile, Mejri is one of only five Mavericks players with a positive net rating (plus-3.7), and in a small sample size, the team has performed dramatically better with him on the floor.
Despite Noel's immense talent, he strays from Carlisle's plan of attack and takes too many chances, particularly defensively. Noel used his quick hands and instincts to become only the 22nd player in NBA history to average at least 8.0 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and 1.5 steals for a full season (min. 70 games), and he did that as a rookie with the Sixers. However, Carlisle expects Noel to be disciplined and protect the rim, and the Mavericks simply don't have the defensive talent to overcome one player's unnecessary risks.
Noel has also seen his usage percentage on offense drop to a career-low 14.6 percent, and there are times when it appears his lack of touches has impacted his effort on the other end, which is often the case for big men. Mejri has an even lower usage percentage (12.6), though, and he continues to set hard screens, dive to the basket and at least provide a presence at the rim within the confines of Carlisle's system.
It becomes a chicken or the egg argument. Is Noel unable to show his worth because he's not receiving the minutes, or is he not receiving the minutes because he hasn't shown much to Carlisle? The truth lies somewhere in the middle.
To his credit, Noel has not created any additional distractions. He's focused on what he can control.
"I'm a very self-confident player," Noel said after riding the bench against the Cavs. "I know I can go in there and change games. When my number is called, I'll do just that and help some winning efforts. That's all my play style is about, is just winning. When I'm called on, I'll bring my winning effort."
When Carlisle will call Noel's number for more than mop-up duty is anyone's guess. But it would be in the Mavericks' best interest to find out what they have in Noel now — or find out what they can get for him.
