The Clippers kicked off trade season with a bang Monday by sending Blake Griffin, Brice Johnson and Willie Reed to the Pistons for Tobias Harris, Avery Bradley, Boban Marjanovic and two future draft picks.
Whereas the trade gives the Clippers some future flexibility while helping them remain competitive in the Western Conference this season, the Pistons made a win-now move by acquiring a five-time All-Star who is two months removed from celebrating his 29th birthday. The Pistons started the season out strong, but they now find themselves 2.5 games outside the playoff race in the Eastern Conference following an eight-game losing streak. The hope is adding the best player in the deal will help them recapture some of their early-season magic and push them into the playoffs for only the second time in almost 10 years.
DEVENEY: Pistons gamble on Griffin, but will it pay off?
The biggest asset Griffin brings to the Pistons is his ability to create his own shot. Unlike Harris and Bradley, who have been assisted on the majority of their made field goals this season, Griffin is comfortable scoring with his back to the basket, where he generates 23.0 percent of his offense, and in isolation, where he generates 11.2 percent of his offense. He hasn’t been the most efficient scorer out of those plays this season, but Griffin is a difficult matchup for opposing big men when healthy because he has the strength to overwhelm power forwards in the post and the athleticism to beat centers off the dribble when he faces up to the basket.
Having played with Chris Paul for most of his career, Griffin can complement ball-dominant playmakers as well, which bodes well for his fit with Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith. Griffin has improved greatly as a midrange shooter since he was first drafted, and he’s extended his range out to the perimeter this season, having made nearly as many 3-pointers this season (64) as he did in his first seven seasons with the Clippers (80). Furthermore, only eight power forwards are currently making more 3-pointers per game than Griffin (1.9), and even fewer are taking more 3-pointers per game (5.7). The combination has defenses respecting him more and more from distance.
While Griffin shouldn’t be expected to be the best 3-point shooter on the floor at all times, he does provide value outside of the paint. His ability to pop in pick-and-rolls in particular should keep teams from clogging the lane when Griffin and Drummond are on the floor together.
The Pistons will likely come across some spacing issues because they traded their two best perimeter shooters in Harris and Bradley to acquire Griffin, but Griffin is comfortable operating from the perimeter as a power forward. Don’t be surprised, however, if Griffin logs more minutes at center in Detroit so that Stan Van Gundy can stagger his minutes with Drummond and give him opportunities to play alongside a stretch four in Anthony Tolliver.
As for Griffin’s fit next to Drummond, who is a similar offensive threat as DeAndre Jordan at the center position, the two shouldn’t have a problem developing chemistry. Like Jordan, Drummond is an explosive big man who generates a high portion of his offense in pick-and-rolls (10.8 percent frequency) and off cuts (16.6 percent frequency).
The Pistons can run high-low actions between the two, and Van Gundy will be able to continue running the offense through Drummond at the elbows, only now Griffin will be the one receiving handoffs from Drummond and running pick-and-rolls as the secondary ballhandler, not Harris.
Griffin might even benefit from playing alongside Drummond, who leads the league in scoring off putbacks. Having someone as dominant as Drummond on the offensive glass might give Griffin more confidence to look for his own shot knowing the second-best offensive rebounder in the league will clean up any misses.
Jordan is no slouch on the offensive glass, but Drummond has always been slightly better in that regard.
Having another playmaker on the court will lessen the creative burden for Jackson, who has never been a pass-first point guard. It’ll also add a much-needed layer to Detroit’s offense that is once again near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency.
Griffin gives Jackson another pick-and-roll partner, and Griffin’s passing ability should make them slightly less predictable on offense. These are all good things. The question is whether that alone can make up for the depth issue the Pistons now have in the backcourt, as parting ways with Harris and Bradley puts pressure on Stanley Johnson, Luke Kennard and Reggie Bullock to step up.
Griffin’s health is another big question considering he has a long list of injuries that have forced him to miss more than 80 games over the last three seasons. It’s particularly concerning seeing as Griffin is in the first year of a five-year extension worth $173 million. It might not look like a terrible deal on paper this season, but he will make close to $40 million in 2021-22 when he is 32 years old. If the last three seasons are a sign of what’s to come for Griffin health-wise, there’s a strong possibility this deal will come back to haunt the Pistons.
Finally, as much as the Pistons need Griffin’s scoring and playmaking, adding a high-usage power forward to their frontcourt could have a negative impact on Drummond’s production. A big part of the Pistons’ success this season has been the evolution of Drummond, who has taken on more playmaking responsibility in the half court. Griffin is at his best when the offense runs through him, meaning Drummond could see his touches decline — and there will be even less touches to go around when Jackson returns from an ankle injury that has sidelined him since Dec. 28. (It doesn’t help that Griffin and Drummond operate from similar positions on the floor, either.)
So there are reasons to believe the Pistons will eventually walk away from this trade as winners when it’s all said and done, but there are also reasons to believe the Pistons gave up too much for someone who isn’t as productive as he once was, especially if the rest of their roster fails to develop around Griffin and Drummond. Which one of those extremes you believe will come true likely hinges on your confidence that Griffin can overcome an unfortunate run of injuries and return to his All-Star form.
