Just under seven months ago, the Clippers decided to bring Blake Griffin back at just under a full maximum contract (five years, $171.2 million) that immediately became one of the league’s biggest albatrosses. It earned a place on that list despite Griffin being a productive player when healthy, as skill partially replaced his decreasing athleticism due to the combination of injuries and normal aging.
Rather, the problems arose out of the fact that the he has missed about a third of the prior three seasons and has not appeared in more than 67 games over a full season during that time. Furthermore, Griffin signed that contract a few months after his 28th birthday, meaning he will be post-prime for most if not all of his new huge money deal.
DEVENEY: Pistons gamble on Griffin, but will it pay off?
Stan Van Gundy just valued Griffin and his onerous contract as a huge positive, making one of the worst trades in the last decade.
The terms...
The Clippers trade Griffin, Willie Reed and Brice Johnson to the Pistons for Tobias Harris, Avery Bradley, Boban Marjanovic, their 2018 first-round pick (protected, technically) and a 2019 second-rounder.
The trade for the Pistons...
One of the most dangerous situations in the NBA is a general manager who feels the pressure to save his job because it often produces moves with possible short-term benefits, but disastrous long-term consequences. Orlando trading Victor Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova and a lottery pick for Serge Ibaka on an expiring contract during the 2016 NBA Draft serves as a strong recent example, but there are so many over the years.
This time, Van Gundy made a massive bet on a Griffin/Andre Drummond frontcourt being a viable foundation for the future, as the two will make $57.3 million combined in 2018-19 and $61.3 million combined in 2019-20. Those commitments come on top of Josh Smith’s locked-in $5.3 million on the books through 2019-20 and about $10 million per season for Jon Leuer. That quartet takes up 72 percent of the salary cap next season and 70.5 percent in 2019-20, leaving the Pistons with only internal improvement, salary cap exceptions, draft picks and minimum contracts as the ways to better their roster for at least the next two-plus seasons.
Those limited means will have to do serious work because Detroit has an extremely limited cupboard at shooting guard and small forward now. Reggie Bullock, Luke Kennard, Stanley Johnson and Langston Galloway are the only players at those two positions under contract beyond this season, and the Mid-Level exception will not be enough to sign most free agent swingmen this summer. Next season marks the Pistons’ best chance at contention, and they will need to improve significantly to advance beyond the first round of the playoffs. They will also need a healthy and effective Reggie Jackson, which has not exactly been the case most of the last few seasons.
MORE: NBA community reacts to news of Griffin trade
On top of all that, Detroit gave up some real value in the trade. Van Gundy acquired Harris in a heist two seasons ago, and the 25-year-old is in the midst of arguably his best professional season and has another year under contract at a team-friendly $14.8 million. Bradley will become more expensive this summer as an unrestricted free agent but could have been moved for an asset at the deadline if Van Gundy and ownership felt uncomfortable paying him in July. Detroit’s own first-round pick should be in the lottery this season, and while Marjanovic has not lived up to his $7 million per season, that is the only negative asset the Pistons included in the deal, and it is a comparatively small one in a deal this massive.
For the Pistons, this is more of a headline move than anything else, and those benefits fade away quickly unless the team actually wins. The Griffin/Drummond combination has potential, especially if Griffin’s 3-point shooting this season is not an aberration, but Detroit will need that duo to propel the offense and defense with such weak talent around them and few ways to improve. Those pressures will only increase as Griffin ages, and his injury risk will remain a credible concern for the entirety of this lucrative contract.
The trade for the Clippers...
Last summer, the Clippers did not have the stomach to commit to a full rebuild even after Chris Paul opted in to facilitate his trade to Houston, which netted a surprisingly robust return. The front office instead reloaded by refusing to trade DeAndre Jordan, keeping the acquired Rockets and paying Danilo Gallinari $65 million over three years with Griffin’s massive five-year, $171.2 million contract with a final season player option serving as the centerpiece.
That decision appeared catastrophic about two months ago when the "if healthy" team was anything but and looking out of the playoff picture. However, the Clippers played their way back into the postseason conversation, including the time Griffin missed time with a sprained MCL, and now benefit from Van Gundy overvaluing Griffin to push one of the largest undo buttons in NBA history.
MORE: Griffin trade shows Doc Rivers lost fight for Clippers' future
Management can either keep Harris and Bradley like it did in the Paul trade seven months ago or move them to other teams in exchange for assets, and the Clippers could do the same with Jordan and Lou Williams. The bold path would be to continue clearing space and bottom out for a season or two, which would not coincidentally be when their own draft pick is lottery protected from a prior trade, unless a max-caliber free agent decides to come aboard. But there are a series of middle paths which appear more likely at this moment.
As of now, the Clippers could easily open up about $20 million in space this summer if Jordan leaves or have almost entirely clear books in 2019 if they can be more patient and wait for Marjanovic, Austin Rivers and Wesley Johnson’s contracts to expire at the end of next season. The front office may try to have it both ways this offseason, but Jordan’s unrestricted free agency presumably prevents that and may dictate the eventual outcome.
Shedding the downside of Griffin’s deal allows a team in one of the league’s most desirable markets to eventually get back in the free agent game while building its asset base and staying relevant if that remains the priority.
One other remarkable element of the deal is that the Clippers may be better this season if they choose to keep it together than they would have been before the trade. While Griffin is the superior player, Harris and Bradley add depth and floor spacing they sorely needed and complement the existing roster very well, though the "if healthy" tag still applies, and Bradley is dealing with a nagging groin issue.
The next week-and-a-half will tell us substantially more about whether the new voices in the Clippers' front office have enough sway to make more big picture moves, but the table is set for even more fascinating decisions.
While there are many other parts of the deal, including players who could be valuable pieces of successful teams, this all comes back to Griffin. If Van Gundy is right and he can stay a significantly positive player through his early thirties, the Pistons opened up a path to consistent competitiveness that was mostly closed off by other shortsighted moves. If Griffin falls below that level due to health problems, aging, bad luck or anything else, Detroit cannot hit its own undo button.