Last season, most teams had played 55 to 57 games by the All-Star break, which also functioned as a buffer time for assessment and negotiation before the league’s trade deadline. Partially inspired by the awkwardness surrounding DeMarcus Cousins, the league moved up the deadline this season to Feb. 8 while also spreading out the season by starting earlier. These two factors will combine to make for a different dynamic at the trade deadline.
Having the All-Star break before the deadline allowed front offices to take stock of their place in the playoff picture during a time when no games were being played. As such, it is fair to consider that 55 to 57 games played the line for evaluation. This time around, teams will have played slightly fewer contests when the deadline occurs thanks to the schedule changes, but major decisions like whether a franchise will be a buyer or seller typically need to be made ahead of that point.
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If we use a similar one-week decision window that was previously the All-Star break, this season teams will be choosing their path around Feb. 1. That meaningfully shifts the balance of the schedule and increases the uncertainty front offices will have to contend with. Instead of 56 played games and 26 to go, it will be closer to 50 played and 32 to go.
At the 2017 All-Star break, 12 of 15 Eastern Conference teams and 13 of 15 Western Conference teams were within four games of the eighth seed, but remember that seven of the eight West playoff teams were basically settled.
The 50-game mark comes at a similar place both seasons (Feb. 2 or thereabouts), and the differences between then and the trade deadline are interesting. In 2016-17, only three teams were clearly out of playoff contention at that point: the Nets, Suns and Lakers. A few others like the Sixers and Magic were on their way out, but the first two weeks of February provided some meaningful clarity. Eventually, the Magic traded Serge Ibaka to the Raptors, and the Sixers traded Nerlens Noel to the Mavericks.
We are still too early in the 2017-18 season to confidently predict where it will go, but one preliminary element to watch is that the race for playoff spots is wide-open. The Western Conference landscape recently shifted with Rudy Gobert’s injury, while improvement from Detroit, Philadelphia, Orlando and Indiana may move the necessary win total in the East up from preseason projections.
All of these dynamics feed together to create one of the key questions in the NBA this year: How many buyers and sellers are there, and when will those teams be confident enough in their status to make moves?
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New Orleans stands out as a test case. Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins have dominated in stretches to start the season, and the Pelicans are currently 10-8 in a stacked Western Conference. Cousins’ pending unrestricted free agency carries significant risk, as the team cannot replace the All-Star should he choose to change teams in July. New Orleans could easily shift between tentative buyer and tentative seller over the next 10 weeks, but the 50-game mark could just be too early for it to know definitively, potentially inspiring a holding pattern, though pressure from ownership and a lack of job security could push general manager Dell Demps toward buying if the Pelicans are in the playoff hunt.
Indiana could end up being another key figure in this process. It started the season surprisingly strong but also possesses a cadre of veterans who could be productive on playoff teams should the Pacers’ postseason chances drop between now and early February. Power forward Thaddeus Young has a $14 million player option for next season, while Cory Joseph has one year worth $7.9 million. Indiana also has Bojan Bogdanovic and Darren Collison on lightly guaranteed 2018-19 contracts. That flexibility could be enticing at the deadline. Shifting from 56 to 50 games played makes that a less likely proposition, but an early decision could also open up even more cap space in the summer of 2018 when so few teams will have space with which to work.
While the teams on the buyer/seller margin are the most interesting, an early decision date also affects how intensely teams on one side or the other are willing to approach the trade deadline. Cleveland’s inauspicious start has opened up the top of the East somewhat, but 50 games might not be enough to sell Toronto, Washington or Boston on the urgency to stock up for this playoff run instead of exhibiting more patience. The West could be clearer by then, but Oklahoma City has to balance lowering its luxury tax bill with a desire to put together the most competitive team possible, and less information about where it is in the hierarchy makes that more challenging.
These factors do not necessarily mean that this season’s trade deadline will be less active or interesting than its predecessors. After all, there are so many other elements in play, including which players are on expiring contracts, the unusual lack of flexibility next offseason and the uncertainty surrounding LeBron James.
The shortened timeline means front offices will have to alter their approaches and expectations in ways that should affect their scouting and player evaluation this entire season, which could have far-reaching implications.