NBA season predictions: Sporting News experts make picks for 2023-24 award winners, Finals and more

The 2023-24 NBA season is upon us and it has all the makings of an incredible one.

A busy offseason saw the entire landscape of the league shift with blockbuster trades sending Bradley Beal to the Suns, Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis to the Celtics, Damian Lillard to the Bucks and Chris Paul to the Warriors. Each contending team that made a splash over the offseason did it with the goal of dethroning the defending champion Nuggets.

Just four months removed from reaching the NBA's mountaintop, what does Denver have set for an encore? Will Nikola Jokic piece together another MVP campaign to help his team defend their title? Which offseason move should the Nuggets be most threatened by? Who will end the season on top?

The Sporting News enlisted nine members of our global team to chime in on the upcoming season, giving their picks for end-of-season awards as well as picks for the NBA Finals.

As the next chapter unfolds with the new season getting underway, find a breakdown of each pick and some rationale behind the selections.

MORE: The Sporting News ranks the top 30 players in the NBA

MVP prediction

Winner: Nikola Jokic (4)

Others receiving votes: Giannis Antetokounmpo (3), Jayson Tatum (2)

The case for Nikola Jokic: After leading Denver to a historic title last season, Jokic returned home to Serbia. And while he did take some time away from the game to tend to his horses, Jokic certainly spent plenty of time working on his game.

He now enters the new season refreshed and ready to build upon what he did last year.

As an encore to winning Finals MVP, Jokic is ready to put up yet another MVP-caliber campaign. Last season, Jokic just missed out on winning a third consecutive, coming in as a runner-up to Joel Embiid and finishing ahead of Antetokounmpo. With Embiid and the Sixers embattled in uncertainty and Antetokounmpo gaining a new running mate in Lillard, Jokic's path to the award seems pretty clear.

— Gilbert McGregor (@GilMcGregor_)

Rookie of the Year prediction

Winner: Victor Wembanyama (6)

Others receiving votes: Chet Holmgren (3)

The case for Victor Wembanyama: This is shaping up to be an outstanding rookie class. Chet Holmgren looks like he should be a two-way force from Day One. Scoot Henderson is going to put up tremendous statistics in Portland. And the Thompson twins’ athleticism is immediately translating.

Let’s be real, though — nobody is beating Wembanyama if he stays healthy and maintains what he showed in the preseason and Summer League. He made mind-blowing plays on both ends of the floor that went viral after every single game. This is the easiest prediction that we’ve made.

— Steph Noh (@StephNoh)

Defensive Player of the Year prediction

Winner: Bam Adebayo (3) and Anthony Davis (3)

Others receiving votes: Evan Mobley (2), Brook Lopez (1)

The case for Bam Adebayo and Anthony Davis: Adebayo has been in the conversation for years now and his presence on the defensive end is only going to get greater as time passes.

Adebayo, who will be 26 this season, came in at eighth on Steph Noh's list of the NBA's top 100 defenders. He will again anchor a Miami defense that will be one of the NBA's best. 

MORE: Ranking the top 10 defenders in the NBA

When healthy, Davis is one of the most impactful defenders in the game. Look no further than his defensive dominance throughout the Lakers' run to the 2023 Western Conference Finals for a recent example.

Davis has set a goal to play in all 82 games this season but he's missed at least 25 contests in each of the last three seasons. If he can meet the 65-game benchmark to win the award, Davis' defensive impact will be worthy of the league's highest defensive honor.

— Gilbert McGregor

Scoring champion prediction

Winner: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (5)

Others receiving votes: Joel Embiid (2), Giannis Antetokounmpo (1), Luka Doncic (1)

The case for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: SGA was in the running last season with an average of 31.4 points per game. He's already one of the best scorers in the NBA and, as we saw in the FIBA Basketball World Cup, there's still another level he can go to.

Helping his case is that Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo are now teammates, Luka Doncic will have a full season with Kyrie Irving as his running mate and the 76ers are looking to make Joel Embiid more of a playmaker after leading the league in scoring in back-to-back seasons. They'll still be in the mix, as will Stephen Curry, Jayson Tatum and Kevin Durant, but the path for Gilgeous-Alexander to lead the league in scoring is the clearest.

— Scott Rafferty (@crabdribbles)

Most likely first-time All-Star prediction

Winner: Jalen Brunson (3) and Jamal Murray (3)

Others receiving votes: Mikal Bridges (2), Paolo Banchero (1)

The case for Jalen Brunson and Jamal Murray: After six players made their All-Star debuts in 2023, who's to say there can't be more than one most likely first-time All-Star?

Last season, Brunson's averages of 24.0 points and 6.2 assists per game were certainly of an All-Star caliber, but he missed out on a selection due to the bevy of guard talent in the East. And while Damian Lillard has joined the conference, both Jrue Holiday and Kyrie Irving have left. Brunson could be the guy that snags the open All-Star spot in the backcourt.

Murray is again at peak form after easing his way back into the action to begin last season. He's been a fringe All-Star in years past but hasn't gotten over the hump just yet. With his Finals performance fresh on the minds of many, Murray enters the year with a champion's reputation and the expectation that an All-Star nod will soon follow.

— Gilbert McGregor

Eastern Conference winner prediction

Winner: Celtics (5)

Others receiving votes: Bucks (3)

The case for the Celtics: If it feels like the East is going to come down to one of two teams, that's because it probably is. 

And while Milwaukee's pairing of Antetokounmpo of Lillard could be lethal, Boston bolstered its roster with the additions of Holiday and Porzingis to create a top six that also includes Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford and Derrick White. 

Barring unforeseen circumstances or setbacks, it feels like a crash course toward an Eastern Conference Finals series that features the Bucks and Celtics, but Boston's strength at the top makes all the difference. As talented as Milwaukee is, it's also one of the league's older teams with a first-year head coach.

Fewer questions for the Celtics means more certainty about their ability to contend and make it out of the East.

— Gilbert McGregor

Western Conference winner prediction

Winner: Nuggets (5)

Others receiving votes: Lakers (1), Suns (1), Warriors (1)

The case for the Nuggets: This is a year where there are at least five Western Conference teams that could play their cards right to make a Finals run. That said, none of them have the Joker.

As a franchise, Denver has now gotten over the hump for the first time ever and will go from the hunter to the hunted. Something tells us that it's a position the Nuggets won't take lightly.

Denver already knows it can win a title with a core of Jokic, Murray and Michael Porter Jr. Where the uncertainty lies is with the supporting cast's ability to replace who was lost in the offseason.

Other West contenders, however, face uncertainty surrounding their stars. Denver is all set at the top and with respect to making Finals runs, that's what's most important.

— Gilbert McGregor

NBA champion prediction

Winner: Celtics (4)

Others receiving votes: Bucks (2), Lakers (1), Nuggets (1)

The case for the Celtics: Winning banner No. 18 is the driving force for the Celtics franchise and in the last two years, they've come painstakingly close to getting there.

Many of the faces have changed but the sting from a Finals loss in 2022 and an Eastern Conference Finals loss in 2023 can be felt by everyone in the organization — new and old. 

Joe Mazzulla is no longer a rookie head coach. Boston has added two more players with All-Star potential in Holiday and Porzingis. White is one of the NBA's best defenders. Brown's made the All-NBA leap. Tatum can make an MVP leap.

The Celtics' letdowns have taught them what it takes to win. There's no question that they have the talent on paper but they now have the mental fortitude to put everything together.

There's a reason why they ended up as the favorite to win it all.

— Gilbert McGregor

Other NBA predictions this season

Best record: Celtics (4 out of 8 votes)

Top fantasy player: Nikola Jokic (7 out of 8 votes)

In-Season Tournament winner: Thunder (3 out of 8 votes)

2023 All-Star most likely to take step back: Lauri Markkanen (3 out of 8 votes)

Most impactful new acquisition: Damian Lillard (6 out of 8 votes)

Team most likely to exceed Vegas: Hornets, Magic, Nets (2 out of 8 votes each)

Team most likely to fall short of Vegas: Cavaliers (4 out of 8 votes)

Full voting results

Team predictions