With just days remaining in the NBA season, there is much to be determined about the playoff picture. Within that context, there’s much to learn about just how well-stocked teams will be once the playoffs begin — injuries have been a frustrating theme among some of the league’s best teams in the past month-plus.
Getting to the playoffs, though, is one thing. Having a real chance at winning a title — or heck, a chance at winning a series — is quite another. With that in mind, we ranked all 17 potential playoff teams, not based on their status with two days to go, but on what their best-case scenario looks like, and how likely they are to achieve that best-case.
There aren’t many teams with real chances at the championship but, in our estimation, there are a surprising number with a shot at getting to the NBA Finals...
1. Warriors
Best case: NBA champions
Best-case outlook: Strong. Even with the knee surgery on star guard Stephen Curry, and even with a potentially rough path through the West playoffs, the Warriors will come into the postseason with three things no other team can match: experience level, talent level and the ability to create mismatches.
There is more intrigue here than there was last year, given Curry’s health question and the fact that the W’s went only 17-13 with Curry sidelined (41-10 with him on the floor). But there are still too many weapons, beginning with Kevin Durant, for opponents to lockdown on this team, and the Warriors should survive until Curry can get back. They’ll have to hit their stride shortly thereafter.
2. Rockets
Best case: NBA champions
Best-case outlook: Improving. Give full credit to the Rockets for brushing off the notion that the next few championships should be handed over to the Warriors. Instead, they put together a team that has had the best season in the league and can give the Warriors a legitimate run in the playoffs.
The problem for the Rockets figures to be the variety of Golden State’s weapons in the West finals, and the mismatches the Warriors can force. But if Curry is not healthy by late May, or if some combination of Rockets role players (Eric Gordon and/or P.J. Tucker may be good bets) can catch fire from the arc, the Rockets can win the whole thing, and that makes them better than a longshot bet to bring home a championship.
3. Cavs
Best case: NBA Finals
Best-case outlook: LeBron James. It’s very, very difficult to imagine this team getting past the Warriors or Rockets in the NBA Finals, given the level of uncertainty in its supporting cast — heaven help the team that leans too heavily on Jeff Green. But it’s also difficult to imagine a team in the Eastern Conference stopping the Cavs as long as they have James.
He has had to take on an enormous load since their deadline day overhaul, averaging 30.1 points on 53.8 percent shooting, with 10.1 rebounds and 10.0 assists. He is taking 21.2 shots per game since the team’s monumental trades, a number he has matched only twice in his career. That could catch up to him.
But until any team in the East shows it has an answer for James in a playoff series, the Cavs remain the East favorites, even if they’re the No. 4 seed.
4. Raptors
Best case: NBA Finals
Best-case outlook: Better than ever. The Raptors overhauled their offense, deepened their bench and got more aggressive on defense this season, all in an effort to alter their history of underwhelming performances in the playoffs. It paid off even before the postseason, though, with Toronto setting a franchise record of 57 wins and the team winning the top seed in the conference.
But the test of everything the Raptors have accomplished so far will come — barring a surprise from an East upstart — when they play the Cavaliers, perhaps as early as the second round. Get past Cleveland, the team that has eliminated them from the playoffs the past two seasons, and the East is likely theirs. Lose, and it’s back to the drawing board.
5. 76ers
Best case: NBA Finals
Best-case outlook: Processing. There are two ways to look at the Sixers. First, they are way too inexperienced to warrant consideration as an NBA contender. The starting five (when healthy) has 88 games of playoff experience, and all 88 belong to J.J. Redick. Or, we could look at them the second way: Maybe they’re just young and dumb enough to not put any special pressure on themselves this spring, and their lack of experience turns out to be an advantage. Ignorance is bliss, and all that.
The big problem is that they’re likely to play the bulk of the first round of the postseason without star center Joel Embiid as he comes back from surgery to the orbital bone around his eye. But consider the possibility that the Sixers land the No. 3 seed, beat up on some zombie No. 6 seed (Miami, Milwaukee or Washington) without Embiid, get the hopelessly injured Celtics in the second round, with Embiid returning and getting back to form, then face the worn-out survivor of a Cleveland-Toronto showdown in the conference finals.
Would it be so crazy for the Sixers to beat either the Cavs or Raptors in late May?
6. Jazz
Best case: Western Conference finals
Best-case outlook: Injury-dependent. Claiming the No. 3 seed could provide Utah its best shot at cracking through the Houston-Golden State wall at the top of the West. The Jazz are likely to have a tough first-round matchup, but if they can survive that and reach the conference semis against the Warriors — who will have Curry still coming back from his knee surgery — they would be in position to give Golden State a good series, and maybe pull off a shocker.
They’re the best defensive team in the league entering the postseason, and point guard Ricky Rubio has always been an irritant for Curry, holding him to 41.9 percent shooting from the field in their 13 matchups.
7. Trail Blazers
Best case: Western Conference finals
Best-case outlook: Also injury-dependent. The Blazers have gone 4-6 in their last 10 games, taking some of the steam out of their candidacy as a Western Conference darkhorse, and putting their grip on the third seed into question. The defense has slackened lately (104.6 points per game allowed in that span), and the team has struggled with its shooting (28.9 percent from the 3-point line in that span).
The schedule has been rough, and the Blazers are not going into the playoffs on a high note. But their path to their best-case is the same as Utah’s — get the No. 3 seed, hope that Curry is not 100 percent on his return and shock the Warriors in the second round.
8. Thunder
Best case: Western Conference finals
Best-case outlook: Why not? It is every bit as likely that we see the Thunder flame out fantastically in the first round as we see them surprise everyone and somehow find themselves in the West finals. This has been the most erratic team in the league all year, with a 4-3 record against Golden State and Houston, but an 8-15 record against the rest of the West playoff hopefuls.
This is, after all, the group that beat the Warriors in Oakland by 20 in early February, then lost in Oakland by 32 less than three weeks later. But the Thunder can be a good defensive team, and the postseason schedule is set up to benefit a team with a weak bench like this one — OKC is 38-25 when it has one or two days off, and 9-9 otherwise.
9. Celtics
Best case: Eastern Conference semifinals
Best-case outlook: Wounded, but viable. News that Kyrie Irving will join star Gordon Hayward in civilian clothes for the Boston playoff run put a hard cap on how long that playoff run can go. The Celtics still have enough talent to get past a going-through-the-motions team like Milwaukee or Miami, and they would rather not see rival Washington, which could snap out of its funk in the first round if the Celtics are on the docket.
But there’s virtually no chance the Celtics can handle either Cleveland or Philadelphia in the second round as short-handed as they are.
10. Pacers
Best case: Eastern Conference semifinals
Best-case outlook: Matchup issues. The Pacers remain the last team to have beaten the Sixers, and won three of four against Cleveland this season. That should give them some optimism against either of their potential first-round opponents in a 4-5 matchup. But the choices are not great.
Indy could wind up with the Sixers, playing without Embiid, but would not have home-court advantage in that case. Or the Pacers will get Cleveland, with a shot at home court, but with a perfectly healthy LeBron in the wine-and-gold. An upset of the Embiid-less Sixers is possible, but Philadelphia is a deeper team capable of simply outrunning the Pacers in a playoff series.
11. Wizards
Best case: Eastern Conference semifinals
Best-case outlook: John Wall is all the way back. There’s too much talent to write this team off completely, but Washington is 6-13 since late February, which includes two losses in three games with Wall back.
The Wizards are looking at the likelihood of the No. 8 seed, but they’re experienced enough to possibly pull things together once the postseason starts. There’s little evidence of an impending resurgence lately, however.
12. Timberwolves
Best case: Western Conference semifinals
Best-case outlook: Jimmy Butler is all the way back. The Timberwolves have Butler on the floor again, which makes them a tougher draw than most No. 6-8 seeds, and gives them a small chance at a first-round surprise. But they must make the playoffs first, and a home game against Denver on the last day of the season will determine whether that happens.
13. Spurs
Best case: Western Conference semifinals
Best-case outlook: Meh. We may see the Spurs slide to No. 8 in the conference, depending on how they play in New Orleans on the season’s final day. That might set up a playoff disaster, though, as Houston would be a terrible matchup for this Spurs bunch, despite the flameout of a year ago by Rockets star James Harden. Should the Spurs land at No. 6 and get a matchup with the Trail Blazers, they’d at least have a chance at a series win.
14. Pelicans
Best case: Western Conference semifinals
Best-case outlook: Longshot. The problem is the Pelicans are lacking depth outside Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday, and it’s hard to find a favorable matchup for them. The presence of Davis and the projected absence of Curry are the only reasons they’re not a certain first-round out. But they’re close.
15. Bucks
Best case: Eastern Conference first round
Best-case outlook: Already done. We’ve all been sucked into believing the Bucks could be a surprise too many times, haven’t we? They have the talent to beat a banged-up No. 2 seed in Boston, but they don’t seem to have much drive or determination. Maybe they’re letting loose on the reins to ensure a series with the Celtics, but they’ve been disappointing all year.
16. Heat
Best case: Eastern Conference first round
Best-case outlook: Done. If a 24-point loss to the Knicks on Friday night is any indication, this team is not going into the playoffs in tip-top shape. They play enough defense to muck up a series, but not enough offense to win one.
17. Nuggets
Best case: Western Conference first round
Best-case outlook: Surprisingly possible. Beat the Timberwolves on the road, and the Nuggets are in. They’d get swamped against the Rockets, of course, but considering they’ve not been a playoff team in five years, they’ll accept that fate.