The playoffs are here! Finally! A ridiculous NBA regular season concluded Wednesday with the Warriors breaking the 1995-96 Bulls' single-season wins record and somehow getting upstaged by Kobe Bryant dropping 60 points in his final game.
But the playoffs are here! That means it's time to talk about matchups and strategies. It's time to make predictions using everything we've learned from the regular season (or throwing that all away, in some instances).
MORE: 23 most-hated NBA players ever | Draft prospect rankings
You can find the first-round NBA playoff schedule here, but we're going to spoil the results because Sporting News' Adi Joseph is sure these first-round picks will be perfect.
WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
Warriors vs. Rockets prediction
Season series: No. 1 Golden State (73-9) beat No. 8 Houston (41-41) in all three meetings, by an average of 12.3 points.
Analysis: The Warriors simply are better than anyone — ever — and that’s good enough to make them the clear-cut favorite here. But on top of that, they get to start with a matchup they love. Even last season, when the Rockets were much better, they lost eight of nine matchups with Golden State, including 4-1 in the Western Conference finals. The Rockets seem headed for an offseason of change with three of their top big men hitting free agency and interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff likely on the way out unless he can pull out a playoff miracle and win this series.
Prediction: Warriors 4, Rockets 0
MORE: How many games will Warriors lose? | Stephen Curry film session: How does he get so open?
Spurs vs. Grizzlies prediction
Season series: No. 2 San Antonio (67-15) beat No. 7 Memphis (42-40) in all four meetings, by an average of 12.5 points.
Analysis: The Spurs have owned the Grizzlies for years, even when the Grizzlies have been healthy. That’s not the case now. This is the ugliest first-round matchup of the playoffs. The Grizzlies are without their two best players, center Marc Gasol and point guard Mike Conley, and are 2-14 in their last 16 games and 1-10 in their last 11. The Spurs are rested, tested and simply much better, even if Gasol and Conley somehow were to play.
Prediction: Spurs 4, Grizzlies 0.
MORE: Why Spurs need Duncan and Ginobili back next year, too
Thunder vs. Mavericks prediction
Season series: No. 3 Oklahoma City (55-27) beat No. 6 Dallas (42-40) in all four meetings, by an average of 9.5 points.
Analysis: Dirk Nowitzki has experienced one sweep in his career: 2012 vs. the Thunder. And that was with a better Mavericks team. But the Thunder finished the season flimsily, and the Mavs have so many veterans that they could make this series more interesting than it should be on paper. The problem is that the matchups are very much against them: The Thunder have perhaps the two best isolation players in the NBA, and the Mavericks’ defense struggles in one-on-one situations. Dallas coach Rick Carlisle is one of the best — and, in a matchup against rookie NBA coach Billy Donovan, that probably is worth a win — but he simply doesn’t have the same top-level talent or the matchups to his advantage.
Prediction: Thunder 4, Mavericks 1.
MORE: Jazzed-up pick-and-roll that makes the Thunder unstoppable
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers prediction
Season series: No. 4 Los Angeles (53-29) beat No. 5 Portland (44-38) in three of four meetings, with an average margin of 1.75 points.
Analysis: Clippers point guard Chris Paul has kind of had Blazers foil Damian Lillard’s number for years. A big part of the reason is the Clippers’ excellent pick-and-roll defense, which neutralizes what Lillard does best. Lillard shot 32.4 percent against the Clippers, a trend that would sink upstart Portland if it continues. The advantage here for the Blazers is that the Clippers still are figuring out how much Blake Griffin can give them. If Portland can exploit the recovering star power forward, they could pull off a stunning victory. But I wouldn’t bet against Paul here.
Prediction: Clippers 4, Trail Blazers 2.
MORE: Do the Clippers have to blow everything up if they lose early?
EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
Cavaliers vs. Pistons prediction
Season series: No. 8 Detroit (44-38) beat No. 1 Cleveland (57-25) in three of four meetings, with an average margin of 1.75 points.
Analysis: Even beyond their head-to-head edge, the Pistons match up very favorably with the Cavaliers. Cleveland’s only real answer to All-Star center Andre Drummond’s size and physical dominance is benched big man Timofey Mozgov, who has been in poor form all season. The Pistons have several versatile forwards to throw at LeBron James, and shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a nightmare matchup for already-struggling Kyrie Irving. But you can’t bet against James in the playoffs until at earliest the NBA Finals, and if things do get rough, it’s easy to imagine him shutting down the Reggie Jackson-Drummond pick-and-roll on his own. The Cavs have a significant-enough talent edge to prevail here either way.
Prediction: Cavaliers 4, Pistons 2.
MORE: Why the Kevin Love-to-Boston trade rumors won't ever die
Raptors vs. Pacers prediction
Season series: No. 2 Toronto (56-26) beat No. 7 Indiana (45-37) in three of four meetings, with an average margin of 2.3 points.
Analysis: Paul George made only 20 of his 65 shots from the field and never topped 20 points this season against the Raptors. Those are brutal numbers from the Pacers’ only star, who averaged 23.1 points per game this season. George is playoff-proven, though — he led Indiana to consecutive Eastern Conference finals with a very different roster around him in 2013 and 2014. The Raptors, meanwhile, are trying to break through for the first playoff series win since Vince Carter’s heyday. They have to be thrilled to land this matchup, though, because they will be able to play small or big and match up with George however they want — perhaps even with rookie Norman Powell, an outstanding defensive prospect. George will win the Pacers at least one game, though. And if he gets going, this could be another ugly first-round exit for Toronto. Don’t count on that.
Prediction: Raptors 4, Pacers 1.
MORE: DeRozan's free agency is a bigger test for the Raptors than this
Heat vs. Hornets prediction
Season series: No. 3 Miami (48-34) and No. 6 Charlotte (48-34) split their four games, with Charlotte holding an edge in average margin of 2.0 points.
Analysis: These teams are so different that it’s only fitting they split their season series and hold the same record. The Hornets have a slightly better offense and push the pace slightly more. The Heat have a slightly better defense and better one-on-one scorers, which often can be important in the playoffs. They also have much more experience. Charlotte probably had the better, less rocky season, but Miami was built for the playoffs. Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson, who at times seemed out of place in the regular season, are aces in the playoffs, when defenses get tighter and play becomes more individualized. Can the Hornets spread the court and keep their passes sharp enough to be effective? The Hornets are such a good home team that they should be able to drag this series out. But if it comes down to a Game 7 in Miami, they’ll be looking back at their regular-season schedule and how close they came to sealing home-court advantage with any extra victory.
Prediction: Heat 4, Hornets 3.
MORE: Here's how the MJ-owned Hornets feel about Crying Jordan
Hawks vs. Celtics prediction
Season series: No. 4 Atlanta (48-34) beat No. 5 Boston (48-34) in three of their four meetings, with an average margin of 7.5. points.
Analysis: This series is the closest of the first round. The most fascinating part is how both of these teams boast elite defenses and fast paces. That’s because they are two of the most cutting-edge teams in terms of system development and analytics. This series is a basketball nerd’s dream, essentially. But the Hawks have two huge advantages: 1. The two best players in the series, Paul Millsap and Al Horford, will be matched up against an occasionally clunky and young Celtics front line, and 2. They have significantly more playoff experience, as this Celtics roster mostly has never won a playoff game while the Hawks are coming off a trip to the Eastern Conference finals. Brad Stevens is a coaching genius, but Mike Budenholzer can more than hold his own, and the Hawks have been exceptional over the past month-plus.
Prediction: Hawks 4, Celtics 3.
