In true NBA fashion, the standings weren't settled until the final day of the 2018-19 regular season. But late Wednesday night, the league's 16 playoff participants locked into their positions ahead of what should be an entertaining postseason run.
The Warriors are undoubtedly the favorite to win the Western Conference (and the 2019 NBA championship), but they must get past a feisty Clippers team in the first round, then the Rockets or Jazz just to reach the conference finals. The Nuggets are hoping to carry over the success from a 54-win regular season into the playoffs, but the Spurs, Thunder and Trail Blazers could all present the No. 2 seed with problems on that side of the bracket.
But all of that is down the road. Let's just break down each Western Conference first-round series to start and come up with some playoff picks.
NBA PLAYOFFS 2019: Full schedule | East predictions
NBA playoffs bracket 2019
NBA playoffs 2019: Western Conference first-round predictions
(1) Warriors vs. (8) Clippers
The backstory
The Clippers put together a scrappy, inspiring season with a good combination of tough veterans and talented, chip-on-the-shoulder youngsters. Unfortunately, three losses in their final four games left them stuck in the No. 8 slot with a meeting against the Warriors, West champs for four straight years.
All that scrap and inspiration does not figure to mean much against a juggernaut like Golden State, which is looking for one last championship before free agency kicks in, possibly costing the team star forward Kevin Durant. That’s a subplot here — if Durant leaves the Warriors, the Clippers are one of the biggest contenders to sign him. This series could be the prelude to a real rivalry.
The key player
Ho-hum. All Stephen Curry did this year for the Warriors was score 27.3 points per game, with 5.3 rebounds and 5.2 assists, while shooting 47.2 percent from the field and 43.7 percent from the 3-point line.
The Clippers mostly used Avery Bradley against Curry this season, but Bradley is gone, leaving Doc Rivers with some choices. He can use long-armed point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander against Curry or gritty defensive guard Patrick Beverley on him. Neither played Curry much during the regular season, but both can be expected to be physical with him in this series.
The big number
11. The Warriors will enter the postseason with the No. 11 ranked defense in the NBA, allowing 108.5 points per 100 possessions. That might seem to give the Clippers some hope, given that LA was ranked ninth in offensive efficiency this season (111.3) and averaged 115.1 points per game during the season.
Problem is, the Warriors coasted most of the first chunk of the season defensively, as they did last year when they also were 11th in defensive efficiency. But when the playoffs came around, Golden State was the No. 1 team in defensive efficiency, and ranked fifth in the category over its final 16 games (they were 12-4 in that stretch).
Most teams can’t really flick a switch in the playoffs, but the Warriors are an exception.
The prediction
It’s remarkable that the Clippers managed 48 wins this season, and they might have had a chance at an upset if they had not been stuck with the eighth seed. LA is a team on the rise, but they’re not ready for a Warriors upset just yet.
Warriors over Clippers, 4-1
(2) Nuggets vs. (7) Spurs
The backstory
The Nuggets have been out of the first round of the playoffs just once since 1994, but after a 54-win season, the team has high expectations. The issue, though, is that Denver is virtually devoid of postseason experience.
Its three top scorers — Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Gary Harris — are all under 24 years old and will be making their postseason debuts. They’ll be facing the Spurs, anchored by LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan, who have 116 games of postseason experience between them.
There’s a bit of an experience gap on the bench, too, where Denver’s Mike Malone will make his postseason coaching debut against Gregg Popovich, who will be in the playoffs for the 22nd consecutive year, with a record of 167-110.
The key player
Paul Millsap had his lowest scoring average in a decade this season (12.6 points), but he played well in the second half of the year and was signed by Denver specifically for playoff time.
This will be Millsap’s 10th postseason, and he has 87 playoff games under his belt. He will be expected to be a calming figure when adversity strikes, but he’ll also have to contend with Aldridge, who can score on Jokic with ease. Against Millsap — in only two games — Aldridge shot only 40 percent from the field and scored nine points in 38 possessions.
The big number
10.6. Denver was 34-7 at home this year, the best record in the league on their own court. They ranked third offensively (116.0) and fifth defensively (105.4) when playing in Denver, a 10.6 net rating that was second-best in the league.
That flips dramatically when the Nuggets hit the road — they’re 17th in defense (110.6) and 16th in offense (108.1). That’s a minus-2.5 net rating, 14th in the league. The Nuggets will open with two games at home, and it’s critical for the team to take pressure off itself by winning both.
The prediction
The Nuggets are a juggernaut at home, and they’ve got home-court advantage. It’s not hard to imagine an upset in this one, but the Nuggets have an advantage in size and talent. Look for them to win a skin-of-the-teeth series.
Nuggets over Spurs, 4-3
(3) Trail Blazers vs. (6) Thunder
The backstory
The Blazers were rolling through the stretch run having adjusted their style of play to run the offense more often through big man Jusuf Nurkic and make the team less dependent on pick-and-roll basketball, which proved too easy to defend when Portland was swept from the first round last season.
Indeed, the Blazers dropped from third in the NBA in their use of pick-and-roll ball-handler offense (21.6 percent of their possessions) down to 11th (18.9 percent). But all that came crashing down in late March when Nurkic broke his leg, putting him out for the postseason. The Blazers played well after Nurkic’s injury (7-2), but they were playing inferior competition.
On the other side, the Thunder plowed through an easy early schedule and were 38-20 with a win in their first game after the All-Star break. But the schedule caught up with them, and the team underwent a 6-13 stretch before closing with five straight wins to seal the No. 6 spot.
The key player
Paul George was a legitimate MVP candidate leading up to the All-Star break, but as is his habit, he slumped badly in the second half — his shooting dropped from 45.3 percent to 40.0 percent and this 3-point shooting went from 40.6 percent to 33.6 percent. That’s been a pattern in his career.
But another pattern for George has been strong bounce-back performances in the playoffs. He has averaged 26.5 points, 7.3 rebounds and 4.4 assists in the last three springs. The Thunder have a talent advantage here, but only if George shakes off his late-season struggles.
The big number
19.7. For the Thunder, 19.7 percent of their possessions come in transition, which ranks fourth in the NBA. But watch the Thunder’s shot selection, and you’ll not be surprised to know that OKC scores 1.05 points per possession on the break, 28th in the NBA.
Defensively, Portland ranks sixth in points per possession allowed on the break (1.06), so expect the Blazers to do well disrupting the Thunder’s running game. Oklahoma City must get better shots and convert more in transition to advance past this series.
The prediction
It was an all-around breakout season for Nurkic, and it’s too bad that he will miss this postseason. It would have been interesting to see whether the Blazers’ new approach could be carried into the playoffs.
But it was not to be. That leaves the door open for the Thunder to advance.
Thunder over Trail Blazers, 4-2
(4) Rockets vs. (5) Jazz
The backstory
The Rockets come into the postseason a much different team than they were last year, having rebuilt the bench — none of top reserves Austin Rivers, Danuel House or Kenneth Faried was with the team to start the year — on the fly and withstanding a disappointing 11-14 start to the season. But they’ll again face the Jazz in the playoffs, the team that the Rockets disposed of in five games in the conference semifinals last year.
Houston has designs on a rematch with the Warriors, which could be on the horizon in Round 2. But it would be a mistake to overlook the Jazz, who finished the year (as usual) on a hot streak, winning 18 of 24 games. Utah was the No. 1 defensive team in the league in that span (104.1 points per 100 possessions), but the Jazz should be warned — the Rockets were No. 2 defensively in that same stretch, going 20-4 and allowing 105.2 points per 100 possessions.
The key player
James Harden scored, incredibly, 36.1 points per game this season, with a 40.9 usage rate and 11.0 trips to the free-throw line per game. But Utah did well defending him last year, allowing him to score 28.0 points per game but with terrible shooting numbers (40.4 percent from the field and 29.5 percent from the 3-point line).
The guy who made the difference in the series was point guard Chris Paul. Because the Jazz spent so much attention on Harden, Paul thrived, scoring 24.6 points per game on 48.4 percent shooting and 44.1 percent from the 3-point line. He also averaged 7.0 rebounds and 6.2 assists.
The big number
39.3. For his career, Donovan Mitchell is a 43.4 percent shooter, with an average scoring mark of 22.1 points. Against Houston, though, Mitchell has just had a hard time. He’s played the Rockets 13 times in the regular season and playoffs, and he has averaged only 19.6 points, shooting 39.3 percent from the field and 25.6 percent from the 3-point line.
The Jazz offense was very good down the stretch, with Mitchell (26.7 points, 46.1 percent shooting, 45.1 percent 3-point shooting) leading the way. Which Mitchell will we see? The one who struggled so badly against Houston, or the one who finished the year so strong?
The prediction
The Jazz can play defense well enough to muck up the series against Houston and keep things close. But they don’t have the finishing ability that the Rockets have. This is a bad matchup for the Jazz.
Rockets over Jazz, 4-2