In true NBA fashion, the standings weren't settled until the final day of the 2018-19 regular season. But late Wednesday night, the league's 16 playoff participants locked into their positions ahead of what should be an entertaining postseason run.
The Eastern Conference is looking top-heavy to start with the Bucks, Raptors, Sixers and Celtics all expected to advance to the second round. The East bracket could have a far-reaching impact on these teams beyond the playoffs with a pivotal offseason on the horizon. Get bounced early, and it could prove costly in free agency.
But all of that is down the road. Let's just break down each Eastern Conference first-round series to start and come up with some playoff picks.
NBA PLAYOFFS 2019: Full schedule | West predictions
NBA playoffs bracket 2019
NBA playoffs 2019: Eastern Conference first-round predictions
(1) Bucks vs. (8) Pistons
The backstory
The Bucks enter the playoffs as the only 60-win team in the NBA, a mark they hit for the first time since 1981. They started the year 7-0 and finished with the highest-rated defense in the league (104.9) and the third-rated offense (113.5), for a league-best net rating of 8.6.
Of the Bucks’ starters, only Eric Bledsoe and Tony Snell have every been out of the postseason’s first round (each made one appearance in a conference semifinal), and on the bench, George Hill is the only player with extensive playoff experience, at least until Pau Gasol gets healthy. As a franchise, the Bucks have not won a series since 2001, so there’s some pressure on this bunch to back up what they did in the regular season.
On the sidelines, this matchup features last year’s Coach of the Year, Dwane Casey, against this year’s likely recipient of the award, Milwaukee’s Mike Budenholzer. Safe bet that Budenholzer will enjoy a better fate than Casey, who was fired after last season despite his award-winning performance in Toronto. This year, he did an admirable job leading a team that had been 17-23 to a .500 record and a playoff spot.
The key player
Milwaukee swept four games from Detroit in the regular season, and while Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton are the All-Stars for the Bucks, point guard Eric Beldsoe led the charge against Detroit, averaging 20.5 points and 6.5 assists while shooting 51.6 percent from the field and 40.0 percent from the 3-point line in the four games.
Bledose will also be the primary defender against Pistons point guard Reggie Jackson, who improved as the season went on and was a big part of Detroit’s second-half turnaround.
The big number
42.2. No team was stingier when it came to yielding points in the paint this season then the Bucks, who thrived by sticking center Brook Lopez near the rim and allowing his presence to deter drives.
Milwaukee will allow opponents to shoot 3s — it led the league with 36.3 attempts against per game — and teams shoot 36.1 percent against the Bucks. But they’re not going to allow you to get to the rim on them. The Bucks allowed only 23.9 percent of opponents’ shots to be at the rim, lowest in the NBA.
The prediction
The Pistons rallied nicely late in the year, but the Bucks are a terrible matchup for them. They could make a series of it if they’re hot from the 3-point line, but they can’t win four out of seven.
Bucks over Pistons, 4-1
(2) Raptors vs. (7) Magic
The backstory
The Raptors enter the playoffs under as much pressure as any team, certainly in the East.
Not only are they looking at a history of postseason flops, including the sweep at the hands of the Cavaliers in last year’s conference semifinals (which pushed the team to make Nick Nurse coach and let Dwane Casey go), there was, too, the blockbuster deal for Kawhi Leonard, who will be a free agent this summer. His interest in staying with the Raptors could be influenced by how far the team goes in the playoffs.
They’re going against the worst kind of foe — a Magic team that has nothing to lose, that was not supposed to be a playoff team entering the season and was left for dead at 20-31 before rallying to finish 22-9.
The key player
Few players gave Toronto fits quite like Orlando All-Star Nikola Vucevic, who averaged 20.0 points, 15.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists (55.0 percent shooting and 45.5 percent from the 3-point line) in the four regular-season games that the teams split this year.
He plays a perimeter game as a shooter and passer, which spells trouble for the Raptors’ elder big men, Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka, and will likely force Nurse to use Pascal Siakam, who is a bit undersized for the matchup, on him.
The big number
18.0. Leonard had an outstanding comeback season in Toronto (26.6 points, 7.3 rebounds, 49.6 percent shooting), but did not fare well when facing Orlando, averaging only 18.0 points per game and struggling against versatile Magic forward Aaron Gordon.
According to NBA.com stats, Gordon guarded Leonard on 43 possessions in three games this season and allowed him only 40.0 percent shooting. The Raptors need more production out of their offensive anchor.
The prediction
This won’t be a cakewalk for the Raptors. The Magic closed the season strong. They defend well, and they can create matchup problems for Toronto. But they lack the experience or depth to pull off the upset.
Raptors over Magic, 4-2
(3) Sixers vs. (6) Nets
The backstory
As ever with the Sixers, the story is the health of center Joel Embiid. He came out of the All-Star break with a mysterious knee injury that caused him to miss eight games down the stretch, and now it appears he might not play in the opener against Brooklyn. That would be a tough blow to a team that is still working out its chemistry after making two in-season blockbuster trades, first for Jimmy Butler then for Tobias Harris.
The group of Embiid, Harris, Butler, JJ Redick and Ben Simmons has been together in the starting five only 10 times this season. It won’t help that the Sixers start the postseason with the ever-hustling Nets, whose backcourt depth — All-Star D’Angelo Russell and Spencer Dinwiddie as the starters with Caris LeVert and NBA 3-point leader Joe Harris off the bench — presents a major problem for Sixers coach Brett Brown.
The key player
It’s Embiid, all the way. In his last appearance against Brooklyn, Embiid had 39 points, 13 rebounds and six assists.
He torches the combination of Jarrett Allen and Ed Davis in the middle for the Nets, so whatever advantage Brooklyn might establish on the perimeter can be wiped out by Embiid playing the wrecking ball on the interior. But he’s got to be healthy.
The big number
102.64. That was the Sixers’ pace factor this season, eighth in the NBA. They prefer to play fast.
But maybe not against the Nets, who have a pace factor of 101.78, 11th in the league. They, too, can play fast and considering their depth in the backcourt — as well as the advantage Embiid gives them in the half-court game — it might be wise for the Sixers to slow things down.
Neither team is particularly efficient in transition, but slowing things down would play more to Philadelphia’s advantages.
The prediction
The Nets have what it takes to put a scare into the Sixers, but not enough frontline talent to move to the second round. It’s been a brilliant season in Brooklyn, and being able to push Philly in this series should be taken as a positive.
76ers over Nets, 4-3
(4) Celtics vs. (5) Pacers
The backstory
These two teams come into the postseason after very different regular seasons, both tinged with disappointment.
Boston was expected to be a championship contender this season, but an utter failure of chemistry left the team short all year. The young players who excelled in the postseason last year — Terry Rozier, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum — had their roles reduced with the return to health of Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, and none seemed to take it very well. The Celtics finished with 49 wins, worse than their finish in the last two seasons.
The Pacers were 32-15 on Jan. 23, third in the East, when star guard Victor Oladipo broke his leg and ended his season. The team managed showed some toughness in withstanding the injury for a while, but a difficult schedule led to a 7-12 finish to the season.
The key player
After Oladipo went out with the leg injury, the Pacers’ offense was carried by forward Bojan Bogdanovic, who has averaged 20.7 points on 50.3 percent shooting and 41.7 percent 3-point shooting.
Bogdanovic has mostly struggled against Boston this year, averaging 13.5 points on 43.9 percent shooting. During the season, Bogdanovic was mostly guarded by Brown, Tatum and Marcus Smart, and he can expect to a see a combination of Brown and Tatum with Smart out for two rounds (torn oblique).
The Pacers were 14th in offensive efficiency before Oladipo’s injury, but have ranked 23rd (108.8 points per 100 possessions) since the injury. Bogdanovic is their best hope for putting up enough points to keep up with Boston, and the Pacers were 11-5 when he scored 23 or more points.
The big number
10.1. That’s the percentage of overall possessions the Pacers use to feed the roll man on the pick-and-roll, the most in the league as they try to hammer the ball to Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis inside. That should be good news for Celtics center Aron Baynes, the team’s best defender on those plays.
Baynes has been in and out of the starting five, and he closed the year with eight straight starts. Because Boston does not expect much scoring from the Pacers, Baynes should remain with the starters to guard the rim.
The prediction
Indiana can slow down games and turn them into a slog, which is likely to mean some unsightly stretches of basketball as coach Nate McMillan attempts to keep things close. But this is a good matchup for Boston, a team that simply has too much talent for the shorthanded Pacers.
Should Indy succeed in keeping things close, the Celtics will lean on Irving, who averaged 6.4 points in the fourth quarter this year, 15th in the NBA.
Celtics over Pacers, 4-1