Sometimes in the NBA postseason, the tables turn. In the case of the Grizzlies and Lakers, the tables have turned substantially for both. Los Angeles had a miserable regular season until Rob Pelinka made some massive deadline deals, and now the Lakers are in position to advance to the second round past a Memphis team that looked great for months before falling flat due to injuries, character issues, and general efficiency problems. Tonight, L.A. can pull off the 4-1 gentleman's sweep with a road victory over the Grizzlies (-4.5).
Throughout the year — and now into the playoffs — Memphis has started games hot. Since the start of this season, the Grizz have averaged 59.1 first-half points and an NBA-leading 62.8 first-half points per game at home. Compare that to Memphis opponents' collective first-half averages of 55.3 and 54.9 at FedEx Forum, and you'll understand why we like Taylor Jenkins' squad to start Game 5 with a Mike Breen bang.
The two main advantages Memphis has on L.A. are defense and athleticism. Memphis punched first in both of its home games to start this series, going a combined +21 over the older Lakers. However, LeBron James and company have dealt with adversity their whole careers, and we have seen them bounce back from early deficits in big spots countless times. That was the case in Game 1 when Los Angeles stormed back to win the second half 69-47. It was also the case when L.A. forced overtime in Game 4 and then won OT 13-7.
This series has been difficult to handicap the whole way through because of a ton of variables. Ja Morant's wrist injury has the star point guard playing like a shell of himself, and we still wonder how much his off-court issues midway through the season have affected his on-court presence in the playoffs. Dillon Brooks continues to be a rabble-rousing, bear-poking jester, but it remains to be seen if his schtick actually makes the teammates around him better. Perhaps most notably, both Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke have been sorely missed on the interior.
However, the Lakers have also had their fair share of woes. Like Memphis, L.A. is not a good shooting team. The Lakers shot 27.8 percent from behind the arc in Game 4, but the Grizzlies said, "anything you can do, we can do worse" and shot 21.4 percent from long range. If Darvin Ham has any semblance of a clue on how to coach an NBA team, he will develop a game plan to continue to force Memphis to take outside jumpers. Not even Grizzlies sharpshooter Desmond Bane has been stroking it.
Let's get right into the odds for this pivotal Game 5 tilt, and discuss our predictions, best bets, and favorite SuperDraft prop.
Lakers vs. Grizzlies odds, picks, predictions, and player props
- Spread: Grizzlies -4.5 (-105) | Lakers +4.5 (-115)
- Total: OVER 221.5 (-120) | UNDER 221.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Grizzlies -185 | Lakers +150
We see little value in the traditional spreads here, as Memphis has gone 24-18-1 ATS at home this season but just 20-18-1 ATS as a home favorite. The first four games of this series have been very bumpy roller coaster rides for traditional spread bettors, and we quite frankly don't want the smoke.
The angle we will be attacking tonight:
- the quarter and half spreads
- the UNDER on the total
As we mentioned in the intro, Memphis has come out of the majority of games gunning for a halftime lead. Sure, the Grizzlies logged an abysmal nine-point first quarter in Game 3 at the Crypto, but also remember that Ja and company won their first halves at home in Game 1 and 2 by a combined margin of 21. A pack of young, athletic 20-somethings with their backs against the wall will not come out lethargic in Game 5 at home.
As good as the Grizzlies have been in the first half all season, the Lakers have been even better late in games. Los Angeles leads the entire Association with a 68.6-percent fourth-quarter cover rate (59-27 ATS), led by the savvy LeBron and AD. Austin Reaves has also become a Lakers hero, most recently pitching in a team-high 23 points to go with six assists and four rebounds. He's the third star L.A. needed, and he's barely even known by most casual fans.
If you prefer to bet full-game spreads, buy the Lakers a couple of points and bet them +6.5 at -145. You could also wait until the Grizzlies get out to an early lead and bet L.A. once the live oddsmakers inflate the lines. Ham's squad can win this game on the road, as Memphis is shooting terribly and often struggles with maintaining half-court offensive rhythm, but it's better to be safe than sorry, especially with all the wild stuff we've seen throughout the opening round of the NBA Playoffs.
On BetMGM, we can get Memphis -1.5 in the first quarter at +100, which is very tempting. The Grizzlies' first-half spread (-1.5) is juiced to -130, which is less profitable but more probable. The UNDER of 221.5 is also decorated with a pretty +100 bow on top, which will likely cause a ton of everyday bettors to take the bait and get trapped in quicksand. The UNDER has gone 5-2 in these teams' seven meetings this season, sure, but the average over/under in those games was 227.9 and the average total score has been 223.4. We're going too low if we're betting UNDER 221.5 in a closeout game in Memphis. The Grizzlies are scrappier than that total suggests.
Prediction: Grizzlies 118, Lakers 114. The Grizzlies win (-185) but fail to cover (-4.5) and the game sails well past the OVER (221.5). We will be staying away from the traditional moneyline and spread, though, and opting instead for the Grizzlies -1.5 in the first quarter (+100). We will then likely bet the Lakers' live spread.
Best SuperDraft player prop bet for Grizzlies vs. Lakers: Austin Reaves OVER 15.5 points
The player that many call "Hillbilly Kobe" has built quite a name for himself in the NBA universe. Reaves led Los Angeles with 23 huge points in Game 4 and has averaged 19.3 points over L.A.'s past 17 games. The veterans around Reaves clearly have a ton of trust in the young guard, so we're rolling with him as the main cog in our SuperDraft prop string. Fire Reaves up with confidence tonight!
Other Grizzlies-Lakers SuperDraft props we like: Desmond Bane OVER 24.5 points, Jaren Jackson Jr. OVER 19.5 points, Xavier Tillman OVER 8 rebounds (Four winning props = 10X times your stake).
