The first round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs has been one for the ages, thanks in large part to Jimmy Butler and the eighth-seeded Heat jumping out to a 3-1 series lead over the top-seeded Bucks (-11.5). Tonight, MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo will try to put Milwaukee on his ailing back to avoid one of the most stunning opening-round upsets in NBA postseason history.
For many, Miami's 3-1 lead has a bit of an asterisk next to it. After all, Giannis sustained a lower back injury in Game 1 and didn't return to the floor until Game 4. But Game 4 was when NBA fans and bettors started thinking, "This Heat squad might actually be able to do this." Butler went absolutely nuclear, pouring in 56 points and knocking down jumpers not only from his customary spots in the midrange but also from beyond the arc. The Clutch Player of the Year candidate has looked like the MJ of 2023.
Is this level of dominance sustainable from one player in this iteration of the NBA? The Heat have already lost stud Tyler Herro (broken hand) and key bench cog Victor Oladipo (torn patellar tendon). Kyle Lowry and Kevin Love are not just over the hill; they are near the bottom slopes heading toward Hall-of-Fame hopefulness. Duncan Robinson, an estranged part of Miami's rotation most of the season, is suddenly closing games out. How is this working?
"Heat Culture" is a narrative that's been belabored over the Erik Spoelstra years, but it's tough to doubt in times like these. Whereas Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer has struggled to make postseason adjustments over his lengthy career between Atlanta and Milwaukee, Spo always seems to make the right calls.
However, even if you think Miami will pull this series off, you can't honestly believe the Heat will execute the second gentleman's sweep of the best overall player in the NBA in three years. Giannis is back, and even if he doesn't feel 100 percent, he's still a load for an undersized Heat team to handle on the road.
Will Milwaukee bounce back from Miami's furious Game 4 comeback win, or will the Heat close this series out at Fiserv Forum and leave the Bucks with several question marks entering the offseason? Let's get right into the odds for this pivotal Game 5 tilt, and discuss our predictions, best bets, and favorite SuperDraft prop.
Bucks vs. Heat odds, picks, predictions, and player props
- Spread: Bucks -11.5 (-115) | Heat +11.5 (-105)
- Total: OVER 220.5 (-110) | UNDER 220.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Bucks -650 | Heat +475
Another game, another massive spread. Oddsmakers clearly like Giannis and the Bucks to bounce back with fervor. It's not every day you see a team down 3-1 in a series favored to win Game 5 by 12 points. We aren't touching that, just like we didn't touch the Celtics -13.5 vs. the Dejounte Murray-less Hawks on Tuesday.
What we will consider betting is the Bucks -250 to be leading at halftime and the end of the game. Milwaukee is a -400 individually to lead at the half and -650 to win the game, so -250 isn't a ton of juice for backing two outcomes that both seem very likely to occur. Budenholzer's boys have gone 33-10 at home since the start of the 2022-23 season, and Milwaukee ranks sixth in the NBA with a +2.3 average first-half margin since the start of the season.
Giannis, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday have all won crucial games together, and as much as Budenholzer has been out-coached by Spoelstra, this whole crew has battled through adversity before. We expect Milwaukee will try to exploit its size on the interior with Giannis, Brook Lopez, and Bobby Portis. When Miami responds with weak-side help and double-teams, the Bucks will go inside-out to find open shooters like Middleton, Holiday, Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, and Joe Ingles.
Still, don't overestimate the Bucks and back them to win by double-digits just because they have Giannis, they're at home, and their backs are against the walls. Sure, they have gone 9-1 when their moneyline has been -650 or shorter this season, but they have also gone just 4-7 when favored by 11.5 or more points. And just like we can't overestimate the Bucks, we can't underestimate "Playoff Jimmy."
Prediction: Bucks 120, Heat 114. Milwaukee wins but Miami covers (+11.5) and the game easily goes OVER (220.5). The OVER has hit in these teams' past six meetings, and we don't see Milwaukee playing a slow-paced, half-court set all night. This game will be balls-to-the-wall intensity from start to finish.
Best SuperDraft player prop bet for Bucks vs. Heat: Brook Lopez OVER 15.5 points
BroLo has been great for the Bucks all year, but he has really stepped it up when Giannis has been sidelined or hampered. He dropped a team-high 36 points in Game 4, and he's scored at least 25 points in three of Milwaukee's past five games. With Bam Adebayo tasked with guarding Giannis, expect Lopez to get after it again tonight. Kevin Love and Caleb Martin don't stand a chance against BroLo, especially if Bobby Portis gets it going and the Bucks establish their tri-towers offense. Another Lopez bet we like is his OVER 6.5 rebounding prop. In addition to his 36 points on Monday, he added 11 boards.
