In what was the biggest upset of any series-opening playoff game, the eighth-seeded Heat went into Fiserv Forum and took down the top-seeded Bucks 130-117, winning outright as 9.5-point underdogs. Of course, an asterisk is warranted given Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo played just 11 minutes following a back injury sustained in the first quarter, but the Heat still played sound basketball on both ends of the floor.
Even with Antetokounmpo (back) listed as "questionable" for Game 2, the Bucks currently sit 8.5-point home favorites tonight. After nearly closing as double-digit favorites in Game 1, the current spread likely tells you Antetokounmpo might tough it out and give it a go tonight.
Milwaukee's implied win probability inevitably takes a nosedive without their best player, but the betting market is still high on the Bucks to knot the series at one game apiece, so it seems as if Antetokounmpo will suit up. Miami also endured a key loss in Game 1 itself, as starting guard Tyler Herro broke two fingers in his shooting hand diving for a loose ball and is expected to miss four-to-six weeks. Herro's ability to create off the bounce will be missed by a Heat offense coming off one of its best performances of the season, shooting nearly 59.6 percent from the field and 60 percent from behind the arc against one of the league's most consistent defenses.
Can the Bucks defend home court, or will the Heat head back to South Beach with a 2-0 lead? Below, we'll break down Wednesday night's Bucks-Heat matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Bucks vs. Heat odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Bucks -8.5 (-105); Heat +8.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: OVER 220.5 (-110); UNDER 220.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Bucks -350; Heat +275
If he doesn't end up suiting up, the Bucks are still capable of knotting the series up at a game apiece, posting an 11-8 record straight up without Antetokounmpo in the lineup. Budenholzer's group is deep enough to overcome the absence of Antetokounmpo but will need to shore things up defensively if they have any shot of winning and covering tonight. Miami ended the regular season ranking 25th in offensive rating (112.3) but looked like a top-five offense on Sunday afternoon.
Jimmy Butler simply wanted it more than anyone else on the court, scoring a game-high 35 points on 15-of-27 shooting, getting to his spots at will. Alongside Butler, center Bam Adebayo nearly posted a triple-double, adding 22 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists while floor spacers Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Kevin Love shot a combined 10-of-16 from three.
Chances are, a Heat bunch that shot just 34.4 percent from three on the season won't sustain that level of efficiency, but that type of shooting output in Game 1 puts more onus on the Bucks' perimeter defense to be extra disciplined on their rotations and closeouts going forward. On the offensive end, Khris Middleton stepped up sans Antetokounmpo, scoring a team-high 33 points while Bobby Portis (21 points) remained efficient off the bench.
We ultimately think the Bucks grind out a multi-possession home victory, but it won't be without another stingy effort from Butler and company. Milwaukee enjoys a bounce-back performance from lead guard Jrue Holiday, who shot just six-of-18 from the floor in Game 1, while their perimeter defense forces the Heat into a rougher three-point shooting output.
Prediction: Bucks 115, Heat 106. The Bucks (-8.5) cover the spread, with the game going OVER the total (220.5).
Best player prop bet for Bucks vs. Heat: Jrue Holiday OVER 20.5 points (-105)
Holiday's too pure of a scorer to shoot just 33 percent from the field for a second consecutive game, and even though Antetokounmpo is likely to give it a go, we think Holiday goes for 21-plus. We could see a less-aggressive Antetokounmpo on the floor, who potentially could be more of a facilitator and rebounder relative to a scorer. That plays into Holiday's hand even more, hopefully leading to an efficient scoring night from one of the Association's best two-way guards.
