The fourth-seeded Suns will try to win their third-straight game tonight against the first-seeded Nuggets (-5.5) in Game 5 of the Western Conference semifinals (10 p.m. ET, TNT). After losing the first two games in Denver, Phoenix returned the favor, winning both Games 3 and 4 at home thanks to excellent performances from Kevin Durant and Devin Booker.
In Sunday night's five-point win, Durant and Booker scored 36 points each and were the only two starters in double figures for Phoenix. Durant shot an efficient 11-of-19 from the field and grabbed a game-high 11 rebounds. Meanwhile, Booker continued his red-hot shooting, going 14-of-18 from the field and three-of-six from beyond the arc while dishing out 12 assists. The only other Suns player to have a big game was Landry Shamet, who dropped 19 points off the bench (6-9 FG, 5-8 3pt). Phoenix will need Shamet and others to step up again tonight if they want to take a 3-2 series lead over the best team in the West.
Denver received a ridiculous performance from two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, who had 53 points, 11 assists, and four rebounds. It didn't matter who Phoenix threw at Jokic (Deandre Ayton, Jock Landale) on defense. He still got his points and gave the Nuggets a chance down the stretch in Game 4. The Nuggets had all five starters in double figures, but they didn't get enough production from a bench that scored just 11 points. The bench won't be the ultimate deciding factor in tonight's result, but it could give Denver a boost when Jokic or Jamal Murray isn't on the floor.
Can the Suns steal home court to take a 3-2 series lead, or will the Nuggets continue their dominance at home and push Phoenix to the brink of elimination? Below, we'll break down tonight's Suns-Nuggets matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
MORE BETTING: Get the best odds, spreads, props, & parlays with BetMGM!
Suns vs. Nuggets Game 5 odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Suns +5.5 (-105); Nuggets -5.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: OVER 227.5 (-110); UNDER 227.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Suns +185; Nuggets -225
The Nuggets are 5.5-point home favorites entering a pivotal Game 5 despite losing both Games 3 and 4 in Phoenix. Denver was a great team home team during the regular season (34-7) and won the first two games of this series by 14 points per game.
The public believes that the Nuggets will win tonight at home, as they are receiving 78 percent of the bets (77 percent of the handle) on the spread, which opened up at 3.5 points in favor of Denver. However, the public feels differently about the moneyline, as the Suns are getting 66 percent of the bets (48 percent of the handle). Phoenix has had two incredible wins at home to tie this series up thanks to Booker and Durant playing at incredibly high levels.
Booker is averaging 36.3 points, 8.8 assists, and 5.3 rebounds per game in this series. He's also shooting an absurd 63.7 percent from the field and 57.1 percent from three-point range. The 26-year-old guard is scoring 36.8 points per game on 61.7/51/87 percentages in the NBA playoffs. His play along with Durant has kept this Suns' team afloat without Chris Paul, who remains on the sidelines due to a left groin strain.
MORE NBA BETTING: Best PHX-DEN props | PHI-BOS preview | PHI-BOS props
If Phoenix wants to steal Game 5 tonight, they will need Durant and Booker to once again combine for 70-plus points while the team as a whole knocks down threes at a high clip. In Game 4, the Suns shot 44.8 percent from three-point range while the Nuggets shot just 31.8 percent. As for fast break points, Phoenix outscored Denver by 10 points (20-10) in Game 4 and 12 points in Game 3 (23-11). If the Suns can catch the Nuggets out of position in defense, they can rack up on quick transition buckets.
However, we should not expect the Nuggets to make things easy on the Suns tonight. Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. will need to do more. After scoring 23 and 16 points in Games 1 and 2, Gordon scored 20 points combined in Games 3 and 4. Meanwhile, Porter Jr.'s production has been inconsistent, as he had 21 points (7-14 FG, 6-10 3pt) and 11 rebounds in Game 3, but only 11 points (4-13 FG, 2-9 3pt) and 10 rebounds in Game 4.
If Gordon or Porter Jr. doesn't play well tonight, it will put a ton of strain on Jokic and Murray to shoulder the offensive workload. The Nuggets are 25-16-1 against the spread as home favorites this season (including the playoffs) and 17-9 ATS when the spread was between -7 and -4. Meanwhile, the Suns are 9-14-1 ATS as road 'dogs but 3-5 ATS when the spread was +4 to +7. It's tough to say who will win tonight, but with how the Suns are playing, we like them to cover the spread.
Prediction: Nuggets 117, Suns 113. The Suns (+5.5) cover the spread, with the game going OVER the total (227.5)
Best SuperDraft player prop bet for Suns vs. Nuggets: Deandre Ayton OVER 12.5 points
Ayton got outplayed in the past two games, but thankfully the Suns were able to win. However, if they want to take Game 5 tonight and ultimately win the series, Phoenix needs more from the 24-year-old center. Ayton is scoring 13.3 points per game in the postseason and has gone OVER 12.5 points in six out of nine games.
The former Arizona standout played well in Games 1 and 2, dropping 14 points apiece, but in the past two games, he's only posted 12 total points. We know he has his hands full with Jokic on defense, but there isn't a reason why Ayton can't get his on the offensive end against a so-so defender.
MORE SuperDraft Props to consider: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope OVER 9.5 points, Aaron Gordon UNDER 14.5 points, Devin Booker OVER 1.5 steals, Kevin Durant OVER 8.5 rebounds
