The fourth-seeded Suns (-12.5) look for their fourth consecutive win to knock out the fifth-seeded Clippers in the nightcap of Tuesday's NBA Playoffs tripleheader (10:00 p.m. ET, TNT). The Suns have reaped the benefits of a Paul George and Kawhi Leonard-less Clippers bunch, and although Tyronn Lue's crew has remained resilient and competed despite their absences, all signs point toward a relatively stress-free win for Phoenix tonight.
After escaping Game 3 with a five-point win despite a 45-piece from Devin Booker, the Suns took advantage of the shorthanded Clippers in Game 4, securing a 112-110 victory. In the win, Booker continued his efficient play scoring 30-plus points for a third straight game while grabbing nine boards and dishing out seven assists. Kevin Durant led the team in scoring this time, though, with a 31-point effort on nine-of-17 shooting.
As they've done in the first four games, the Clippers put forth a promising start, leading 30-23 at the end of the first. However, Los Angeles proceeded to get outscored in the remaining three quarters, and a late surge by Chris Paul effectively ended the Clippers' hopes of evening the series at two games apiece.
Following Norman Powell's spirited 42-point effort in Game 3, Russell Westbrook tried to will the Clippers to victory on Saturday, scoring a game-high 37 points on an efficient 17-of-29 shooting. Ultimately, the Clippers' subpar three-point shooting night (32.4 percent) doomed them, and with the series shifting back to Phoenix, this best-of-seven appears to be all but over.
Below, we'll break down tonight's Suns-Clippers matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Suns vs. Clippers odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Suns -12.5 (-110); Clippers +12.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 224.5 (-110); UNDER 224.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Suns -900; Clippers +600
As the current moneyline and spread indicate, the Suns are expected to close out this best-of-seven tonight, sitting with an implied win probability of 90 percent. The spread is always the great equalizer, and with Phoenix closing as 7.5- and 8-point favorites in Games 3 and 4, respectively, and multi-point adjustment to bake in home court justifies this 12.5-point handicap.
While a Suns win is practically inevitable, we're still hesitant to lay this 12.5-point spread, thinking the Clippers can do enough offensively to stay within the number. The Clippers' defense has had trouble getting consistent stops, sporting the second-worst defensive rating this postseason (119.1), but considering they're in a 3-1 hole, their offensive effective field goal percentage of 53.2 is respectable, ranking within the top half of all 16 playoff teams.
Given we see a better three-point shooting output from a team built with reliable floor spacers, the Clippers' three-point-heavy offensive style could translate to a successful offensive showing tonight. Marcus Morris went an ice-cold one-of-eight from distance, while Powell and Bones Hyland combined to make just three-of-11 triples in Game 3. They certainly won't shoot at the same efficiency as George and Leonard, but don't write off Lue's bunch entirely.
Phoenix is still figuring things out on the defensive end of the court since adding Durant, and while they'll likely score at will, we could see them give up their fair share of easy baskets tonight. The Suns pull out a comfortable multi-possession win, but the Clippers hit enough threes to stay within the 12.5-point spread.
Prediction: Suns 118, Clippers 108. The Clippers (+12.5) cover the spread, with the game going OVER the total (224.5)
Best player prop bet for Suns vs. Clippers: Terance Mann OVER 10.5 points (+100)
Since we think the Clippers can stay within the spread in a game we think goes OVER the total, we'll bet on another efficient scoring night from Mann off the bench. With Leonard missing the past two games, Mann's minutes increased from 25 minutes per game in Games 1 and 2 to 28.5 minutes per game in Games 3 and 4. It's not a seismic shift by any means, but his 2.5-minute increase can lend itself to a higher probability he scores 11-plus points tonight. Given Mann's averaging 10.75 points per game this series, there isn't much wiggle room for an off-shooting night, but with the reserve guard potentially playing 30-plus minutes tonight, we think he hits enough shots to cash this OVER.
