After evening the series with a 123-109 home win in Game 2, the fourth-seeded Suns (-2.5) head to Crypto.com Arena to face the fifth-seeded Clippers in the final game of Thursday's NBA Playoffs slate (10:30 pm. ET, NBATV). Despite trailing by double-digits for a second straight game, the Suns dominated the final 24 minutes of play on Tuesday night, outscoring the Clippers 64-50 in the second half.
Phoenix got whatever it wanted on the offensive end, shooting an efficient 58.8 percent from the field, highlighted by Devin Booker's 38-point performance (14-of-22 FG). Although the Clippers scored six more second-chance points (21-15), the Suns did a much better job limiting Los Angeles on the glass, winning the rebounding battle 35-32. Chris Paul enjoyed a bounce-back performance after shooting just two-of-eight from the field in Game 1, sinking tough mid-range jumpers to give the Suns breathing room down the stretch.
Kawhi Leonard (31 points, 11-of-20 FG) and Russell Westbrook (28 points, nine-of-16 FG) did their part in giving L.A. a shot to take a 2-0 series lead, but Los Angeles simply couldn't get enough stops on the defensive end. Booker thrived off the Clippers' drop coverage, consistently creating ample space to get his shots off. Even though he missed all four of his three-point attempts, Kevin Durant also put forth an efficient scoring night, dropping 25 points on 10-of-19 shooting. (UPDATE: Leonard (knee) has been ruled "out")
Can the shorthanded Clippers' defense limit Bookers' effectiveness en route to a Game 3 victory, or will the Suns go up 2-1? Below, we'll break down Thursday night's Clippers-Suns matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Clippers vs. Suns odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Suns -6.5 (-115); Clippers +6.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: OVER 225.5 (+100); UNDER 225.5 (-120)
- Moneyline: Suns -300; Clippers +240
With Phoenix closing as eight-point favorites in Games 1 and 2, it's no surprise the Suns opened as 2.5-point road favorites as the series flips to Los Angeles. However, the Leonard news has resulted in a four-point line move in the Suns' favor, with their moneyline moving from -160 to -275. L.A'.s moneyline price of +240 (implied win probability: 29.41 percent) feels about right given the Clippers have posted a 36.7 percent win rate without him this season.
Through two playoff games, the Clippers also sport a -4 net rating while the Suns are +4 in their net rating, with the Clippers' defense (117.7 rating) being their weak link. It's one thing to say a team needs to shore things up on the defensive end, but it's another thing to match up against a lethal Suns offense with several players capable of consistently scoring off the bounce.
It's not like Tyronn Lue's bunch didn't do everything in their power to throw the Suns off rhythm, showing several defensive coverages in Game 2, but the Suns' superior offensive talent shined through and simply got buckets. It also didn't help that the Clippers couldn't generate extra offensive possessions at the same rate in Game 2, as the Suns put together a much better effort on the glass.
Without superstar wings Paul George and Leonard in the lineup, L.A. is in dire need of consistent bucket-getters who can score off the bounce option outside of Westbrook. Yes, Eric Gordon's scored in double figures each game this series, but he's mainly been a standstill three-point shooting option whom Leonard and Westbrook look to when the Suns' defense collapses on them. Can Bones Hyland, Norman Powell, and Terance Mann put forth efficient scoring performances tonight? They'll need to shoulder a massive scoring load without Leonard, who's averaged 34.5 points per game so far this series.
Unfortunately for Los Angeles, we don't think they'll be able to score at a consistent enough clip against the Phoenix's potent offense to take a 2-1 series lead, especially without their go-to scoring option. Booker probably won't go for 38 again tonight, but the Suns can still pull out a road win even if he goes for 25-plus with Paul, Durant, and Deandre Ayton chipping in as scorers, too.
Prediction: Suns 116, Clippers 105. The Suns (-6.5) cover the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (225.5).
Best player prop bet for Suns vs. Clippers: Terence Mann OVER 8.5 points (-115)
Mann's scored 10 points in both playoff games so far, and since he's playing 25 minutes per game and attempting 4.5 shots per game, we think the reserve guard eclipses this number for a third consecutive night. L.A. needs a stable scoring option off the bench alongside Powell, and Mann's ability to score from all three levels could lead to a solid scoring output from Lue's second unit. Some might say he's due for some shooting regression since he's shot 66.6 percent from the floor through two games (six-of-nine FG), but Mann has a knack for playing within the flow of the offense and taking smart shots, so it's no surprise he's been effective when on the floor.
