Through three games of the opening-round series between the top-seeded Nuggets and the eighth-seeded Wolves, Minnesota has given us no reason to believe in their chances at an upset. And Denver has given us plenty of reasons to regard it not just as a lock to advance to the second round — but as a serious contender for the Western Conference title. And while that lead-in might suggest that traditional betting value is minimal going into Game 4, we still have plenty of opportunities to find edges and angles to attack as bettors.
The early-second half of Game 3 was the best version of the Wolves we have seen in this year's playoffs. Anthony Edwards was playing with confidence and attacking the rim with force. Karl-Anthony Towns was taking smart shots. Rudy Gobert was playing assertive offense near the hoop. The three finished the third frame 10-of-13 from the floor and 10-of-12 from the line — and yet Minnesota tied the Nuggets 33-33 in the quarter.
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Reigning two-time MVP Nikola Jokic is not just the undefeated heavyweight champion of this series — he also has the best entourage he's ever had around him in his eight-year career. Jamal Murray looks back to the prime form we saw from him in the COVID Bubble a few years back. Michael Porter Jr. is finally fully healthy and regularly dipping into his bag as an inside-outside pure scorer. Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are perfect team defensive cogs and superb floor spacers who can also handle the ball. Aaron Gordon is playing the best all-around ball of his life.
Put it together and what do you get? A bonafide title contender. Jokic could probably beat this Wolves team without those four — Hell, Christian Braun has flashed moments of brilliance as an electric finisher with a smooth outside stroke, and Jeff Green always delivers when asked. But Jokic has not needed to be super-human to get out to a 3-0 series lead. He's been content to just create good shots for the core four around him, and they have responded with sizzling strokes.
The only thing sizzling in Minnesota: the flames under coach Chris Finch's hot seat and the collective ire Wolves Nation has for Rudy Gobert and the blockbuster package Tim Connelly traded to acquire him. This Wolves team often loses its focus — a huge no-no against Mike Malone's Nuggets, who always seem cool, calm, and composed — and even when Minnesota strings 10 good minutes together, Denver responds with 10 better minutes. Case in point: the fourth quarter of Game 3, when the Nugs outscored Minny 26-23 to cement the 120-111 victory.
If you're inwardly hoping we tell you to suddenly bet Minnesota's moneyline or something ludicrous like that, spoiler alert: we will not back Minnesota on the line, against the spread, or with points. They're like "Green Eggs and Ham" — we will not bet them, Sam I am, we will not bet the Wolfpack Clan!
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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Nuggets -4.5 (-110) | Wolves +4.5 (-110)
- Total: OVER 223.5 (-105) | UNDER 223.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Nuggets -190 | Wolves +155
The Nuggets' spread surprisingly dipped down as low as -3.5 Sunday afternoon, which we capitalized on like kids collecting free candy at a parade. But we still like Denver -4.5 plenty. After all, the Nuggets have won by nine, nine, and 29 so far this series — and Malone's squad clearly wants some rest ahead of Round 2.
The Nuggets' moneyline yields value, too — -190 is not a ton of juice for a squad this talented against a disjointed and dejected Wolves squad that knows deep down the end of the bumpy road known as the 2022-23 season is just ahead. But if you think Ant-man and KAT have a little fight left in them, Denver's moneyline might make you feel a little more at ease.
We're just fine wading in the waters of the Nuggets' spread. This one feels like it's over before it even tips. Let's not waste any more time — let's jump into the prop market and make some wagers there.
Prediction: Nuggets 115, Wolves 107. The Nuggets win (-190) and cover the spread (-4.5) and the game just barely stays UNDER (223.5). We hate playoff over/unders though. Just smash the Nugs.
Best player prop bets for Wolves vs. Nuggets
Nikola Jokic OVER 20.5 assists + rebounds (-125)
We love the Jokic assists total of 8.5, but don't love how it's juiced to the OVER at -145. Therefore, we will attack his assists + rebounds total at -125, which we feel pretty comfortable will hit. Jokic has been such a force any time he's tried to work down low on offense, so the Wolves often either get into foul trouble or double him (or both). When he draws attention, he finds the open shooter — and these shooters are practically all putting up better efficiency numbers in the playoffs than they did all season. Look at Jokic's rebounds + assists numbers through the first three games of this series:
| Game | Rebounds | Assists |
| Game 1 @ DEN | 14 | 6 |
| Game 2 @ DEN | 9 | 9 |
| Game 3 @ MIN | 11 | 12 |
| Average | 11.3 | 9.0 |
Sometimes we feel like Jokic doesn't like having to score all the time. Like LeBron James, he loves creating for his teammates and letting them do some of the dirty work (especially when he's getting hacked like Hell on the road). So, we're very confident in Jokic's ability to hit nine assists for the third straight game, and in a closeout game we also love his chances of ripping down 12 boards.
Anthony Edwards OVER 27.5 points (-110)
No juice, just Ant and the points. The Ant-man is the best fighter on this Wolves team — sorry, Rudy, you're not a fighter because you punch and run — and Edwards is the type of hoops soldier who will go out swinging. We saw him catch fire in Game 2 with a 40-burger (well, 41-burger, to be exact) and he encored that performance with 36 in Game 3. We feel quite alright with setting the bar at 28 here — he's too big for Denver's guards to guard in the post or on penetration and too quick for Aaron Gordon or Jeff Green to check.
