The most entertaining and highly-competitive first-round series of the 2023 NBA Playoffs so far — the Kings vs. the Warriors — culminates in a Game 7 matinee for the ages at Golden 1 Center on Sunday (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC). Today we will get you prepared for this heavily-anticipated grudge match, and make our predictions and best bets after uncovering all the odds, trends, and analyses.
The Kings have been the little engine that could in the NBA all season, defying the odds and exceeding expectations behind Clutch Player of the Year De'Aaron Fox, NBA total rebounding leader Domantas Sabonis, and Coach of the Year Mike Brown. But the defending-champion Warriors are also one of the most difficult heavyweights to knock out, and Steph Curry and Klay Thompson should provide us with unforgettable Game 7 road performances,
Will the Kings make history and become the first Western Conference playoff team to knock the Steph Curry Warriors out of the postseason? Or will the Splash Brothers prevail once again and knock out the feisty Kings? Let's break down the BetMGM odds, discuss some important trends, and make our best bets, predictions, and favorite SuperDraft props for what should be an instant-classic of a Game 7.
Kings vs. Warriors odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Kings -1.5 (-105) | Warriors +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: OVER 229.5 (-120) | UNDER 229.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Kings +120 | Warriors +100
This is relatively unchartered territory for the Warriors, who have won four championships since 2015. This marks just their fifth elimination game in the Steph Curry era, and only the third elimination game they have faced before the NBA Finals. They have never lost a non-Finals elimination game in the playoffs, but oddsmakers clearly expect that trend to change this afternoon.
It can't be easy to list Curry, Thompson, Draymond Greenm and company as underdogs in the postseason — but this Warriors team has already lost in Sacramento twice this series and has gone just 12-32 on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season. Before their Game 5 victory at Golden 1 Center, the Dubs' collective road winning percentage on the regular season and playoff campaign was .256, worse than every NBA team except Houston, San Antonio, and Detroit.
That's not very champion-like, nor is the complementary play we have seen from the Warriors' 'others.' Jordan Poole has looked like a bumbling version of his 2022 playoff self, often appearing nervous and downright uncoordinated with the ball in his hands. Donte DiVincenzo has been equally brutal, continuing to buckle under pressure. Young forwards Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga have provided very little, and the novelty of Gary Payton II has clearly expired.
Quite simply, Golden State wins tonight with its core five pieces going off. Back to basics, Steve Kerr — ride your guys for 38-42 minutes and keep the pedal to the medal all four quarters. Curry and Thompson, time to splish-splash. Andrew Wiggins, time to D up like you did during the 2022 NBA Finals against Jayson Tatum and the Celtics. Draymond, dish that rock and keep the pace at 100 miles per hour. Kevon Looney, rebound that ball like Dennis Rodman against peak-90s Karl Malone.
The Kings are beatable — the Dubs just stole Game 5 in Sacramento on Wednesday – and De'Aaron Fox is battling a fractured finger on his shooting hand. Domantas Sabonis has looked like the most passive, weak-sauced big man in the NBA Playoffs. It took a combined 55 points between Malik Monk, Keegan Murray, and Trey Lyles for the Kings to extend this series to Game 7. We expect heroics from Fox at this point — with or without the strength of all five shooting fingers, he's just an old-school assassin — but do we really expect more heroics from those supporting characters?
I don't. In Game 7s, the alpha dogs show up and the complementary pieces often fade back out of the picture. And the soft stars like Sabonis get punched in the mouth. These Warriors are not just smart, battle-tested, and experienced in clutch situations. They also have a six-game sample size with which to work, and they know that Sabonis provides them with a key advantage in the middle. He can't defend with consistency without fouling, nor can he bang down low for interior scores on the offensive end. Between Looney — who gives up some height to Domas but has five inches of wingspan on him — and Green, they will make Sabonis's life difficult Sunday afternoon.
In fact, we're circling Draymond as a key player to watch in Game 7. Across Golden State's four postseason elimination games, Dray has been the player who elevated his game the most. He has averaged 16 points, 14 rebounds, and 7.8 assists per game in those back-against-the-wall settings, quite the jump from his usual postseason averages of 12.4 points, 9.5 boards, and 6.8 dimes. And if you look back to Green's performances in Golden State's past three closeout games, he averaged 14.3 points, 11 rebounds, and 8.3 assists. He'll be ready today.
The Warriors as a whole will be ready, too. Golden State should have won Game 6 by all accounts, but it just completely laid an egg at home. Sacramento shot 40 percent, committed 19 turnovers and 26 fouls, and won the game!? If we told you before that game that the Kings would play like that, you would have put the whole farm on the Warriors. It's simply not feasible for a core rotation as experienced and talented as the Warriors to play like that two games in a row. And it's also not likely that the likes of Monk, Murray, and Lyles will play heroes in two straight elimination games. We're going for the defending champions -1.5 for the Dub.
Prediction: Warriors 118, Kings 113. The Warriors (-1.5) cover the spread, with the game going OVER the total (229.5)
Best SuperDraft prop bet for Kings vs. Warriors: Draymond Green OVER 23.5 points + rebounds + assists
Like we said in the intro, Draymond Green steps up big time when he's needed the most. He has averaged 37.8 points + rebounds + assists across Golden State's four elimination games in the Curry era and 33.3 points + rebounds + assists in Golden State's last three closeout games before this postseason. Don't expect a second-consecutive dud from Dray or the Warriors.
MORE SuperDraft Props to consider: Steph Curry OVER 32.5 points, Andrew Wiggins OVER 6 rebounds, Kevon Looney OVER 13 rebounds, Malik Monk OVER 18 points
