The eighth-seeded Heat will head to Madison Square Garden on Sunday to play the fifth-seeded Knicks in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals at 1 p.m. ET (ABC). Miami upset the first-seeded Bucks in the first round, while the Knicks defeated the fourth-seeded Cavaliers in five games.
During the regular season, the Knicks took three out of four games from the Heat. New York hopes that is a good sign, as they will be playing Miami in the playoffs for the first time since 2000. Meanwhile, the Heat are in the second round for the second-straight season and the third time in the past four seasons. Jimmy Butler had an awesome first-round against the Bucks and will need similar performances for Miami to return to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Nevertheless, the Knicks are the betting favorites (-160) to win this series, but the veteran-led Heat will not be phased by the moment and will be prepared for anything that Jalen Brunson and Co. throw at them.
Can Butler lead the Heat to another upset win in Game 1, or will Brunson and the Knicks put on a show at MSG? Below, we'll break down Sunday's Heat-Knicks matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
Heat vs. Knicks odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Heat +4.5 (-115); Knicks -4.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: OVER 207.5 (-110); UNDER 207.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Heat +155; Knicks -190
The Knicks are 4.5-point favorites heading into tomorrow's Game 1 at Madison Square Garden. New York played well at home in the first round, winning both games by 20 and nine points over the Cavs. Along those same lines, the Knicks were a good home team during the regular season (23-18). That success has carried over to betting as New York is 22-20-1 against the spread at MSG (including the postseason) and 17-15 ATS as a home favorite.
If the Knicks want to take Game 1 from the upset-minded Heat, they must defend the three-point line. We saw the Heat shoot 45 percent from deep (best in the NBA playoffs), which is a notable difference from the regular season (34.4 percent -- 27th in the NBA). New York allowed the Cavaliers to shoot 32.7 percent from beyond the arc in the first round and ended the regular season with the 12th-best three-point defense (35.7 percent).
The Heat will do everything in their power to keep Brunson in check on the perimeter, so Julius Randle must win his individual matchup. Last round, Randle averaged 14.4 points and 6.4 rebounds per game after missing some time with a sprained left ankle. He reaggravated the injury in Game 5 and is doubtful to play on Sunday. If Randle cannot go, the Knicks will have to get offense from elsewhere -- Josh Hart, R.J. Barrett, etc.
Meanwhile, the Heat are looking to topple another top seed in their quest to return to the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami leaned on Butler, who turned in a historic 56-point performance in Game 4 and followed it up with 45 points in the series-clinching win in Game 5. However, Butler can't do it alone, as he will need Bam Adebayo (20 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists) to step up like he did in Game 5 and be a presence inside the low post. Adebayo is listed as doubtful with a hamstring strain, but it would be shocking to see him not play on Sunday.
The Heat are 18-25 ATS on the road and 10-11 as road 'dogs this season (including the postseason), but we just saw them defy the odds in Round 1. Can Miami steal Game 1? Without a doubt. However, we think the Knicks will ultimately win and set the tone on Sunday afternoon.
Prediction: Knicks 102, Heat 96. The Knicks (-4.5) cover the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (207.5)
Best SuperDraft prop bet for Heat vs. Knicks: Gabe Vincent OVER 11.5 points
The Heat will need Vincent to play aggressively from the opening tip in Game 1, as the Knicks will not give up a lot of space on defense. The 26-year-old averaged 13 points per game on 42.4 percent shooting from the field and three-point range in the first round against Milwaukee. If Vincent can duplicate that shooting performance on Sunday, Miami will be in great shape.
The 6-foot-3 point guard has gone OVER 11.5 points in three out of his past five games and scored 12 points per game against the Knicks in the regular season. New York allowed the 11th-most points per game to PGs in the regular season, making this a solid matchup for Vincent.
MORE SuperDraft Props to consider: Jalen Brunson OVER 5.5 assists, Jimmy Butler OVER 30.5 points, Kevin Love UNDER 8.5 points, and Bam Adebayo UNDER 8.5 rebounds
