The Western Conference semifinals will begin on Saturday night with Game 1 between the No. 4 seed Suns and No. 1 seed Nuggets at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Phoenix took down the Clippers in five games (4-1), and the Nuggets defeated the Timberwolves in five games (4-1) in the first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs.
The Suns and Nuggets split the four-game season series, with each team winning two games on their home floor. However, the last time these two teams played each other in the playoffs, Phoenix swept Denver in four games in the 2020-21 Western Conference semis en route to an NBA Finals appearance against Milwaukee.
Denver will hope for a better outcome this year as they are slight underdogs (+110) to win the series over Phoenix. In their last two meetings towards the end of the regular season, the Suns won both games with Kevin Durant as the leading scorer. However, the Nuggets did not have two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. When those three players are on the floor, it's a different game and makes the Nuggets hard to beat.
Can Devin Booker and Durant steal homecourt advantage from the Nuggets, or will Denver remind everybody why they were the No. 1 seed out west? Below, we'll break down tonight's Suns-Nuggets matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
Suns vs. Nuggets odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Suns +3.5 (-110); Suns -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 226.5 (-115); UNDER 226.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Suns +135; Nuggets -160
Even though the Suns are slight favorites to win the series (-130), the Nuggets are 3.5-point favorites for Game 1 tonight. Denver handled its business at home in the first round, going 3-0 against the Timberwolves and winning by 13.6 points per game. The Nuggets are receiving 57 percent of the bets (54 percent of the handle) on the spread after it opened up at -2.5. However, Phoenix is getting an overwhelming 71 percent of the bets (67 percent of the handle) on the moneyline.
It's not a surprise to see the public leaning toward the Suns to win Game 1 after their first-round performance against the Clippers. Durant and Booker were the stars in the last round as they played well off each other and helped Phoenix win the last four games after losing Game 1 at home. Durant averaged 28.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 6.2 rebounds per game in the first round. He also shot a healthy 51.8 percent from the field and 45.8 percent from three-point range.
Meanwhile, Booker went nuclear against Los Angeles, scoring 37.2 points per game on 60.2 percent shooting from the field and 46.7 percent from beyond the arc. We shouldn't expect these numbers to hold in this series, but it shows what can happen when Durant and Booker are on a heater.
As for the Nuggets, they have the tall task of slowing down Booker and Durant in this series. However, the Suns will have to do the same for the trio of Jokic, Murray, and Porter Jr. These three players didn't play in the final two regular-season meetings in Phoenix, where the Nuggets only lost by seven and four points.
However, when the Suns played the Nuggets earlier this season in Denver, they lost both games. Denver is an excellent team at home, going 34-7 during the regular season, which is better than the Suns' road record (17-24). The Nuggets are also 23-16-1 against the spread as home favorites (including the postseason) but only 9-12 ATS when the spread was between -4.5 to -1.5.
It wouldn't be surprising to see the Nuggets get an early jump on the Suns tonight, as they also have a better bench. But will they be able to get those key stops against Durant and Booker in crunch time? That could be the difference-maker in how Game 1 goes. We'll take the Suns to cover the spread and win Game 1 against Mike Malone's crew, who is 1-2 in Game 1s in the Western Conference semifinals.
Prediction: Suns 120, Nuggets 116. The Suns (+3.5) cover the spread, with the game going OVER the total (226.5)
Best SuperDraft prop bet for Suns vs. Nuggets: Deandre Ayton OVER 10 rebounds
The 24-year-old center had a solid performance in the first round against the Clippers, where he recorded 16 points and 11 rebounds per game. Overall, Ayton went OVER 10 rebounds four times against Los Angeles.
The Suns hope he can carry that momentum into Game 1 against the two-time MVP Nikola Jokic. In three regular-season games against Denver, Ayton produced 15.3 points and 10.3 boards per game. Out of those three contests, the former No. 1 overall pick grabbed more than 10 rebounds once (16 on Dec. 25). However, we think this a feasible number for Ayton to hit in a game where there will be a ton of shots going up.
MORE SuperDraft Props to consider: Nikola Jokic OVER 9.5 assists, Torrey Craig OVER 7.5 points, Chris Paul UNDER 9 assists, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope OVER 9.5 points
