After suffering a 127-100 beatdown in Game 2, the seventh-seeded Lakers returned the favor against the sixth-seeded Warriors on Saturday night, cruising to a 127-97 win to take a 2-1 series. Tonight, the Lake Show look to go up 3-1, sitting as short 2.5-point favorites over the defending champs in Game 4 (10:00 p.m. ET, TNT).
If we've learned anything from this best-of-seven so far, it's that as Anthony Davis goes, so do the Lakers. Davis' 30-point, 23-rebound effort in Game 1 helped Los Angeles steal home-court advantage, but the big man couldn't replicate that output in Game 2, making just 45.5 percent of his shots, finishing with 11 points and seven rebounds in a 27-point loss. His interior dominance reigned supreme in Game 3, though, scoring a game-high 25 points on seven-of-10 shooting from the field while making 11-of-12 shots from the charity stripe.
Having an elite big who can stress an undersized Warriors bunch has been the difference in Los Angeles' two wins, and if Davis can continue to take advantage of the Warriors' exploitable interior defense, we could see the defending champs pack their bags in the coming days. Of course, the Warriors' perimeter offense is capable of masking this glaring issue, but along with keeping Davis in check, can they shore up the free-throw disparity?
Through three games, the Lakers own an 83-39 advantage in free throw attempts and out-shot the Warriors 37-17 from the line in Game 3. Given the Warriors' offensive scheme isn't as interior-oriented as the Lakers, this disparity isn't overly surprising, but it's concerning now that Steve Kerr's bunch faces a 2-1 deficit.
Can the Lakers inch closer to a return to the Western Conference Finals, or will Golden State limit Davis' effectiveness en route to a road victory? Below, we'll break down tonight's Lakers-Warriors matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Lakers vs. Warriors odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Lakers -2.5 (-115); Warriors +2.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: OVER 228.5 (-105); UNDER 228.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Lakers -155; Warriors +125
After closing as 3.5-point home favorites in Game 2, the betting market appears to expect a bounce back from Golden State, as the Lakers sit as 2.5-point home chalk after a 30-point beatdown. However, seasoned NBA bettors know not to overreact to a singular sample size, and although the Lakers' just held the Warriors to a 97 offensive rating, Golden State's too potent of an offense to put forth that inefficient of performance in back-to-back games.
Although the Lakers are a tough matchup for the Warriors -- most notably at the five-spot -- we think the free-throw disparity won't be as significant tonight, aiding in the Warriors' favor. Add that in with Stephen Curry's first 30-point effort of the series, and Golden State's in a prime position to even up this best-of-seven.
We're also not expecting Los Angeles to shoot 15-of-31 three-pointers as it did in Game 3, while the Warriors likely post a more efficient three-point shooting output after making only 29.5 percent of their triples. D'Angelo Russell's 21-point showing (eight-of-13 FG) was instrumental in the Lakers' win on Saturday night, but chances are DLo puts up a shooting performance similar to his season-long 42.6 field goal percentage, given the Warriors learn from their mistakes.
Even with a bounce-back performance from the Warriors baked into this line, we like Golden State to even things up before this best-of-seven shifts back to the Chase Center.
Prediction: Warriors 115, Lakers 112. The Warriors (+2.5) cover the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (228.5)
Best SuperDraft player prop bet for Lakers vs. Warriors: Stephen Curry OVER 31 points
While Jarred Vanderbilt's smothering defense has helped keep Curry in check, it's only a matter of time until we see a vintage performance from Chef Curry. Yes, Curry's yet to go OVER this number through three games, but he's still hoisted up 20-plus shots in two out of the three outings. His three-point attempts are down (9.3 3PA) compared to the Kings series (12.9 3PA) but he's actually shooting at a more efficient clip from behind the arc (46.4 percent versus 37.8 in round one). A 30-plus point showing is expected given his scoring prop sits at 30.5 points, but we still think he goes OVER this number in a bounce-back win from the Dubs.
MORE SuperDraft Props to consider: D'Angelo Russell UNDER 16.5 points, Andrew Wiggins OVER 6 rebounds, and Anthony Davis UNDER 14 rebounds.
