In what was by far the most entertaining Game 1 of any 2023 NBA Playoff series, the third-seeded Kings staged a come-from-behind victory to take down the reigning champs and sixth-seeded Warriors 126-123 on Saturday night. After a Steph Curry three-ball pushed Golden State's lead to 10 with 3:07 remaining in the third quarter (86-76), Sacramento proceeded to go on a 15-4 run to take a 91-90 lead entering the fourth. The Kings' late third-quarter push ignited the sold-out Golden 1 Center crowd, flipping momentum that ultimately resulted in a narrow Game 1 victory for the Kings.
Tonight, the two NorCal rivals do battle in a crucial Game 2, with the Kings looking to take care of home court before heading to the Chase Center for Games 3 and 4 (10:00 p.m. ET, TNT). After closing as short one-point road favorites on Saturday, the Warriors currently sit as 1.5-point favorites in Game 2, as the betting market's expecting the pre-series favorites to even up this best-of-seven at one game apiece.
Will the Warriors knot things up, or will the Kings light the beam? Below, we'll break down Monday night's Kings-Warriors matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Kings vs. Warriors odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Warriors -1.5 (-110); Kings +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 239.5 (-110); UNDER 239.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Warriors -120; Kings +100
Even though the Warriors dropped Game 1, it's not surprising to see the Dubs listed as the favorites tonight considering they entered the series with -275 odds to advance to the Western Conference semifinals. Bettors might not want to back the Dubs given their season-long road woes, but all things considered, they played relatively well in the raucous road environment.
Golden State was in charge for the majority of Game 1, but Sacramento's late-third-quarter push proved to be the difference. The league's most efficient offense in the clutch showed why it donned a 128.6 offensive rating in the regular season, as the Kings executed their late-game offense to a tee. Mike Brown's group found success in pushing the pace to stress the Warriors' defense, forcing them to be sound in their defensive rotations, something the Warriors must improve.
Lead guard De'Aaron Fox, the frontrunner for the league's Clutch Player of the Year award, was virtually unstoppable down the stretch, scoring 15 of his 38 points in the final quarter. The Warriors held Kings' big man Domantas Sabonis in check (12 points, five-of-17 FG), but they couldn't contain guard Malik Monk, who went for 32 points on eight-of-13 shooting while making all 14 of his free-throw attempts.
Even though the Kings found success pushing the pace in the latter stages of the game, the Warriors still had an opportunity to take the lead with under 10 seconds remaining in regulation, but Andrew Wiggins couldn't connect on a wide-open corner three. Considering it was his first game back since Feb. 13, Wiggins gave Golden State a solid 28 minutes (17 points, three rebounds, four blocks), but his ice-cold shooting from behind the arc ultimately plagued them (one-of-eight). Wiggins likely puts forth a better three-point shooting output (and potentially avoids hoisting eight threes), which could be enough for the Warriors to escape the Golden 1 Center with the series split 1-1.
The "defending champs can't lose two in a row" narrative is baked into the current line, but even still, we think the Warriors shoot better from the three-point line while shoring up their late-game defense enough to pull out victory. Additionally, the toll of trying to contain Curry on the defensive end could result in a rougher offensive showing from Fox, which plays into the Warriors favor even more.
Prediction: Warriors 120, Kings 117. The Warriors (-1.5) cover the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (239.5).
Best player prop bet for Kings vs. Warriors: Malik Monk OVER 15.5 points (-125)
Although we think the Warriors get enough stops in crunch time to even up the series, we're enticed by Monk's points prop OVER 15.5 tonight. We're not sure he's able to replicate the same shooting efficiency that led to his 32-point showing on Saturday, but he's likely to attempt enough shots to score 16-plus in Game 2. Monk logged 32 minutes and hoisted 13 shots in Game 1 while also exploiting the Warriors' interior defense en route to 14 free-throw attempts. Given he plays around 30 minutes tonight, he's in a solid position to end the night with 16-plus points, something he's done in four of his past six games.
