The eighth-seeded Heat (+7.5) are halfway home in taking down the top-seeded Bucks, looking to go up 3-1 in Game 4 on Monday night (7:30 p.m. ET, TNT). After a 16-point road loss in Game 2, the Heat's offense looked like its Game 1 self, shooting 53.6 percent from the field while splashing in 16 threes on 33 attempts.
The Bucks made 15 threes themselves, but after sinking 10-of-18 in the first half, Milwaukee connected on just five-of-21 threes in the latter 24 minutes of play. Jimmy Butler led the Heat in scoring with a game-high 30 points on 12-of-19 shooting despite leaving the game in the third quarter after falling on his back. Butler's officially listed as "questionable" for tonight, but he'll likely suit up in this series-shifting matchup.
Speaking of injuries, Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo is set to return to the lineup after missing the past two games following a back injury sustained in the first quarter of Game 1. With Antetokounmpo participating in the team's morning shootaround, the Bucks now sit as a 7.5-point road favorite with the betting market already accounting for his return.
With or without Antetokounmpo, the Bucks must be sound in their defensive rotations and can ill-afford to get exposed from the perimeter for a third time in four games. Seeing an increase in usage following Tyler Herro's hand injury, reserve wing Duncan Robinson was red hot from behind the arc and couldn't be stopped in Game 3, sinking five-of-six threes and finishing with 20 points. Additionally, Butler knocked in all four of his three-point attempts, and a Heat team that ended the regular season 27th in three-point percentage (34.4 percent) looked like a top-five unit for the second time in three games.
Can the Bucks shore up their perimeter defense with Antetokounmpo back in the lineup, or will the Heat go up 3-1? Below, we'll break down Monday night's Heat-Bucks matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Heat vs. Bucks odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Bucks -7.5 (-105); Heat +7.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: OVER 218.5 (-105); UNDER 218.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Bucks -300; Heat +240
With Antetokounmpo's status unclear at opening, the Bucks initially sat as 3.5-point road favorites in Game 4. That short spread is long gone, as Milwaukee's now a 7.5-point favorite with the "Greek Freak" back in the fold. Milwaukee's implied win probability takes a sizeable leap with its star forward back in the lineup, but is the current 7.5-point spread too high?
Milwaukee closed as nine-point favorites at home in Game 1 with a healthy Antetokounmpo, so there's been just a 1.5-point adjustment for the switch in venues. Even though the Bucks have put forth two underwhelming efforts so far this series, as the betting market indicates, chances are they even things up at two games apiece. While Miami hasn't been a profitable home team this season (14-25-2 ATS), it's rare to see a relatively healthy Heat bunch catching 7.5 points at home.
If they close at +7.5 tonight, this will be the most points Miami's gotten at home this season. Albeit a small sample, the Heat have been profitable as home underdogs this season, covering four of six games. Not having Tyler Herro (hand) or Victor Oladipo (knee) in the second unit certainly hurts, but we're not sure the Bucks' 7.5-point spread is truly justifiable here.
The Heat sport the Association's most efficient offense this postseason, posting a 123.5 offensive rating to go along with a 64.9 percent effective field goal percentage. Having a key defensive stopper in Antetokounmpo likely results in a less efficient Heat offense moving forward, but it's hard to justify laying 7.5 points to back the Bucks here.
Along with dominating from the perimeter, Miami ended Game 3 plus-12 in points in the paint (48-36), plus-four in second-chance points (13-9), and plus-five in fastbreak points. Antetokounmpo's presence likely results in a different story in those three areas tonight, but it's hard to say the gap between these two teams in their current form is as large as the betting market's indicating.
The Bucks will grind out a road victory to even the series, but it won't come easy. You're paying a premium to bet the Bucks at -7.5 here, and while they're clearly the more complete team, the Heat are capable of keeping this game within the current number.
Prediction: Bucks 113, Heat 107. The Heat (+7.5) cover the spread, with the game going OVER the total (218.5)
Best player prop bet for Heat vs. Bucks: Bam Adebayo to record a double-double (+100)
Although Adebayo's recorded a double-double just once this series, we're expecting the big man to score 10-plus points while corralling 10-plus rebounds to cash this prop in Game 4. In what's likely the most competitive game in this series to date, we think Adebayo plays close to 40 minutes, aiding in his chances of recording a double-double. Bam's averaged just 29.2 minutes per game so far with the result of the first three games in hand by the fourth quarter. Tonight's game has a real shot to come down to the final minutes, giving Adebayo more than enough opportunities to make his mark as a scorer and rebounder.
