In Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinal matchup, the second-seeded Celtics (-9.5) aim to get a lead in their best-of-seven series against the likely Joel Embiid-less third-seeded 76ers on Monday night (7:30 p.m. ET, TNT). Boston advanced to the Eastern Conference semis for the sixth time in seven seasons after a 4-2 series win over the seventh-seeded Hawks. Philadelphia returned to the second round for a fifth time in six seasons after sweeping the sixth-seeded Nets.
Given just three games separated Boston and Philadelphia in the regular season, the current 9.5-point spread may appear steep, but with Sporting News' newly dubbed MVP Joel Embiid (knee) listed as "doubtful," the Celtics are justified as hefty favorites tonight. Embiid is participating in the Sixers' shootaround this morning but is still considered a long shot to play.
If Embiid can't go, the Celtics are in a prime position to improve to 4-1 in their head-to-head season series over the 76ers. Embiid's played through injury before, but it's likely in the Sixers' best interest to rest their star and give his sprained right LCL more time to heal.
Entering this series, the Celtics sit as decided -450 favorites to advance to their second straight Eastern Conference Finals. Still, even with a less than 100-percent Embiid, the Sixers are more than capable of giving the Celtics all they can handle and upsetting the NBA Finals' favorites (+140).
Will the Celtics hold serve at home, or can the likely Embiid-less Sixers steal Game 1? Below, we'll break down Monday's Celtics-76ers matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Celtics vs. 76ers odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Celtics -9.5 (-105); 76ers +9.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: OVER 214.5 (-110); UNDER 214.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Celtics -500; 76ers +375
Likely down their most important piece, it will be an uphill battle for Doc Rivers' crew to steal Game 1 on the road. The Sixers sit as +375 underdogs on the moneyline, with an implied win probability of just 21.05 percent. Even with Embiid putting up 36.8 points per game on 61.2 percent shooting against the Celtics this season, the Sixers finished their regular season series with a 1-3 record.
Philadelphia did boast an impressive 68.75-percent win rate without Embiid this season (16 games), but it's unlikely it will continue putting up 118.4 points per game against the Association's second-most efficient defense. The Sixers sport the most efficient defense this postseason (102.5 defrtg), but keeping a Celtics offense leading all playoff teams in effective field goal percentage (60.0) will force Philadelphia to be sound with its rotations and hold its own on the glass.
The Celtics had some trouble on the defensive glass against the Hawks, surrendering a 29.7 opponent offensive rebound rate, but without having to worry about containing Embiid -- who's averaging 11.8 rebounds per game against Boston this season -- expect a better performance on the boards from Boston.
The three-point shooting battle appears to be a wash, with the 76ers and Celtics ending round one sinking 40.6 percent of their three-point shots. However, Boston did attempt 5.7 more threes per game, so it has the upper hand given its efficiency and volume.
We're not sure the Embiid-less Sixers can score consistently enough against the reliable Celtics' defense, so we agree with the betting market's assessment of tonight's game. Game 1s are typically a feeling-out process, so even if the Sixers don't stay within the current 9.5-point spread, don't assume this series will be a cakewalk for the defending Eastern Conference champions.
Prediction: Celtics 112, 76ers 101. The Celtics (-9.5) cover the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (214.5)
Best SuperDraft prop bet for Celtics vs. 76ers: Jayson Tatum OVER 24.5 points
With SuperDraft lowering Tatum's points prop down to 24.5 points, we'll gladly take a chance on the superstar wing putting forth an efficient offensive showing to give the Celtics a 1-0 series lead. Although Tatum eclipsed 24.5 points in only one of four matchups against the Sixers this season (21.0 ppg, 44.4 FG percentage), his 31.9 regular season usage rate should lend itself to a 30-piece tonight.
Tatum's hoisted up an average of 18 field goal attempts per game against Philadelphia this season, and if he's able to shoot the three-ball closer to his season average of 35 percent, he'll likely go OVER this number.
MORE SuperDraft Props to consider: Robert Williams OVER 8 points, Tyrese Maxey UNDER 24.5 points, and Tobias Harris OVER 26.5 points, rebounds, and assists.
