In what's projected to be the closest first-round series relative to both teams' series prices, the second-seeded Memphis Grizzlies (-140) attempt to take down the seventh-seeded Los Angeles Lakers (+115). After needing overtime to defeat the shorthanded Timberwolves as eight-point favorites in the Play-In Tournament, the Lakers look to advance to the conference semifinals for the first time since their championship run in 2020.
Meanwhile, Memphis is back in the playoffs for a third consecutive season and enters the postseason as the West's No. 2 seed for a second straight year under head coach Taylor Jenkins. After getting ousted by the eventual Champion Golden State in the conference semifinals last year, the Grizzlies look to make a deeper playoff run this go-around. Despite winning 51 regular season games and claiming home-court advantage in this series, the Grizzlies' series odds imply they have just a 58-percent chance of getting past the Lakers.
Are Grizzlies really on upset alert? Below, we'll break down the Grizzlies-Lakers series odds via BetMGM and predict how this best-of-seven might shake out.
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Grizzlies vs. Lakers series odds, picks, predictions
| Team | Series Odds |
| Grizzlies | -140 |
| Lakers | +115 |
Per BetMGM, Memphis is priced with only -140 odds to win this best-of-seven, which could be fairly telling into how this series could unfold. With the Grizzlies down two key frontcourt pieces in Brandon Clarke (Achilles') and Steven Adams (knee), the Lakers could have their way down low. While Defensive Player of the Year candidate Jaren Jackson Jr. and fellow big Xavier Tillman make for a formidable frontcourt, they haven't been able to contain Anthony Davis this season.
In two regular-season games against Memphis, Davis averaged 29 points, 20.5 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks, and he figures to exploit the Grizzlies on the glass all series. While Memphis owns the third-best defensive rating (110.7), it's struggled on the glass since the All-Star break, ranking 24th in rebounding percentage (48.7) sans Clarke and Adams. L.A.'s been the opposite over that span, sporting the fourth-highest rebounding percentage (52.5 percent).
Additionally, Jackson Jr.'s picked up an average of five fouls per game in three regular-season contests against L.A., and with the Lakers ranking second in the Association in personal fouls drawn per game (21.5), there's a chance JJJ once again gets in foul trouble. However, there's a chance Memphis tries to combat that by placing Tillman or Santi Aldama on Davis while Jackson Jr. guards L.A.'s four-spot. Its interior defense wouldn't be as lethal, but that's the fine line Taylor Jenkins and company have to draw.
Neither team has been overly efficient on offense since the All-Star break, but both defenses have ranked within the top third of the league in defensive rating in the second half. Still, expect superstars Ja Morant (26.2 ppg, 46.6-percent shooting) and LeBron James (28.9 ppg, 50 percent) to get theirs in games that should be fast-paced until the final minutes of regulation.
The Lakers (25th) and Grizzlies (23rd) also sit below the league average in three-point shooting percentage, but Memphis has two lethal three-point shooters in Desmond Bane (40.8 percent) and Luke Kennard (49.4 percent), who can take over a game if their stroke is on. While not as nearly lethal, the same goes for Laker guards Austin Reaves and Dennis Schroder, who can get hot from behind the arc in a given game.
When you boil this matchup down, we actually give the Lakers a slight edge despite starting (and potentially finishing) the series on the road. Their rebounding advantage should lend itself to a high number of second-chance points, and their ability to consistently get downhill figures to result in a good deal of three-throw attempts. Unless the Grizzlies shoot north of 40 percent from three as the Timberwolves did in mounting a 15-point lead in the Play-In, we think the Lake Show find a way to win four games to advance to the conference semifinals.
Prediction: Lakers (+115) defeat the Grizzlies in seven games.
NBA Playoffs 2023 odds: Correct series result for Grizzlies-Lakers
| Series result | Odds |
| Los Angeles Lakers (4-0) | +1200 |
| Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) | +850 |
| Los Angeles Lakers (4-2) | +350 |
| Los Angeles Lakers (4-3) | +550 |
| Memphis Grizzlies (4-3) | +325 |
| Memphis Grizzlies (4-2) | +600 |
| Memphis Grizzlies (4-1) | +550 |
| Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) | +1200 |
Since we're picking the Lakers to steal game seven on the road en route to an impending matchup against the Kings-Warriors winner, we'd roll with the +550 price on Los Angeles to win the series 4-3. Per BetMGM's correct series result odds, a 4-2 Lakers series win has a higher probability of transpiring, but given how close these two teams really are and the fact Memphis has home-court advantage, we think this series goes the distance.
