After surviving a second-half scare from the eighth-seeded Timberwolves in Game 2, the top-seeded Nuggets (-2.5) look to go up 3-0 in their first-round series on Friday night (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Denver cruised to a 29-point victory in Game 1, and it looked as if it was on its way to another stress-free victory in Game 2, but a dominant third quarter from the Wolves made things interesting down the stretch.
Minnesota entered the locker room trailing 64-49 but proceeded to outscore Denver 40-23 in the third quarter and even led by three (83-80) at one point. The fourth quarter was a different story, however, with the Nuggets executing their half-court offense to a tee, outscoring the Timberwolves 35-24. Although the first half was shaky, Timberwolves (+8.5) bettors' felt like they were in a solid position to notch the cover leading by a point with 6:55 remaining in the fourth, but the Wolves' inability to limit Jamal Murray's effectiveness in crunch time cost them the cover.
Speaking of Murray, the Nuggets' lead guard channeled his 2020 playoff self, dropping a team-high 40 points on 13-of-22 shooting and canning six-of-10 three-pointers in the process. Reigning MVP Nikola Jokic casually chipped in with 27 points, nine assists, and nine rebounds, while Michael Porter Jr. continued to hit crucial shots in high-leverage spots (16 points, five-of-seven FG).
If it wasn't for Murray's 40-piece giving Denver a 2-0 series lead, all the talk would be about Anthony Edwards' game-high 41-point performance (14-of-23 shooting). Edwards did all he could to even up the series but didn't get enough support on the offensive end from Karl-Anthony Towns (10 points, three-of-12 FG).
With the series now shifting to the Target Center, can Minnesota avoid going down 3-0? Below, we'll break down Friday night's Timberwolves-Nuggets matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Nuggets -2.5 (-110); Timberwolves +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 222.5 (-110); UNDER 222.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Nuggets -135; Timberwolves +115
With Minnesota closing as 8.5-point road underdogs in Games 1 and 2, it's not surprising to see the Wolves listed as 2.5-point home 'dogs tonight. Although they've been a tough team to figure out this season, (42-44 ATS), Minnesota's been profitable as home underdogs, boasting a 68.8-percent cover rate in 16 games (11-5 ATS).
Covering the spread against a healthy Nuggets bunch is a completely different task, but the resilience shown by Chris Finch's group in Game 2 leads one to believe they stand a fighting chance to get back in the series. Minnesota can ill-afford for Towns to maintain his inefficient shooting (eight-of-27 FG), and its perimeter defense has to do everything in its power to not let Murray go nuclear from deep.
Aaron Gordon's done a phenomenal job of limiting Town's production, so if he's held in check for a third straight game, the Timberwolves would need Mike Conley and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to put forth effective offensive showings. Denver's defensive intensity was up and down in Game 2, and although it flipped the switch when it mattered most, we think the Timberwolves show up with their backs against the wall to make this best-of-seven a bit more competitive.
Prediction: Timberwolves 111, Nuggets 110. The Timberwolves (+2.5) cover the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (222.5)
Best player prop bet for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: Anthony Edwards OVER 25.5 points (-125)
A game in which the Timberwolves end up pulling out a home win is likely a result of another efficient scoring output from Edwards, so we're backing the star guard to eclipse 26 points tonight. We'll likely see Edwards hoist up 20-plus shots for a second consecutive game, especially if Gordon clamps down on Towns. Edwards scored just 18 points in Game 1 before his 41-point outburst on Wednesday, but he played just 28 minutes with Minnesota trailing big throughout most of the second half. Look for another big-time performance from Ant.
