In just over a month-long time period, Dante Exum has shown that he’s the Jazz’s best hope to make some noise in the playoffs.
It’s one of those things that simultaneously says a lot and doesn’t say much, but is nonetheless true.
On one hand, the Western Conference is projected to be an open road for the Rockets to get to the NBA Finals, so “some noise” could mean as little as winning an unexpected game against a team with home-court advantage.
At the same time, the Jazz have been successful this season because of their defense-first, slow-pace style of play. The fact that Exum can elevate the team as much as he has is certainly noteworthy.
Regardless of what it ends up meaning, there has been an impact, and the stats back it up. But before fans can marvel at Exum's numbers, it’s important take a look at the situation that played a part in his successful return.
Under normal circumstances, getting a player that has missed a majority of the season acclimated to a team whose cohesion has driven it to an unexpected playoff push would be rather ill-advised. The Jazz, however, were not in normal circumstances on March 14 when Exum was set to return.
The team has found a pleasant surprise at guard in the form of Rookie of the Year candidate Donovan Mitchell, but the team has also seen the ugly side of that rotation — Alec Burks and Raul Neto.
It doesn’t take a deep statistical dive to see why Neto can't reach Exum's level at point guard. Adjusted per 36 minutes, Exum wins out in nearly every single statistical category. It also makes sense that an athletic, 6-6 point guard would be a smarter pick on paper than a player who stands at 6-1.
Burks’ numbers have been quite mediocre and, since losing his minutes, he’s only gone ahead to show why cutting his playing time was a smart decision. While his numbers through March were bad enough, his post All-Star break numbers are just plain nauseating.
| Pre/Post All-Star | Games Played | Minutes | Off Rtg | Def Rtg | Net Rtg |
| Pre All-Star | 52 | 18.0 | 108.5 | 106.3 | 2.1 |
| Post All-Star | 12 | 10.3 | 89.1 | 101.6 | -12.6 |
Meanwhile, here are Exum’s beautiful advanced numbers.
| Pre/Post All-Star | Games Played | Minutes | Off Rtg | Def Rtg | Net Rtg |
| Post All-Star | 14 | 16.8 | 109.3 | 98.9 | 10.4 |
Being an impact substitute is impressive in it of itself. Improving an already streaking team on both ends of the floor after a shoulder injury is just extraordinary.The resulting impact on the team has been astonishing. Before Exum’s season debut, the Jazz had a 105.4 offensive rating and a 102.2 defensive rating — good for fifth-best in the NBA. Since Exum’s mid-March return, the Jazz have the second-best net rating and defensive rating in the league — behind only the 76ers, who went 16-0 in that span.
The shoulder injury hasn’t seemed to disrupt any of his in-game motions. In fact, he’s looking a bit better than he’s been in past seasons. Last season in particular, Exum excelled at charging toward to the rim with seemingly no plan in mind, ultimately leading to failed shot attempts or errants passes.
Even those wasted opportunities were an improvement over his rookie season. His decision-making on drives was so bad, it resulted in one of the worst PER seasons in NBA history.
Now his vision is more refined, and Exum is able to find the smallest windows to either get the ball to his teammates or drive to the lane himself. Of course, the vision is wasted if he’s physically unable to make those types of plays — an injured shoulder will hurt your chances.
The Jazz score 1.2 points per possessions when Exum drives and shoots, or dishes to a teammate who shoots after one or zero dribbles, per Second Spectrum. That ranks him 14th among 300-plus who have recorded at least 50 drives. It’s a rate that gives coach Quin Snyder the confidence to sit Mitchell and redemption story Ricky Rubio. On top of all of that, this is a point guard who can provide a legitimate defensive presence on the perimeter and in the paint against smaller guards and even frontcourt players.
This scenario also couldn’t be better for Exum. He’s not stuck with a large workload on either side of the ball, and he can use the playoffs to regain confidence in his playing style for the following season. With two major injuries in his short career, it’s hard to imagine that his confidence hasn’t wavered a little bit. That might extend to fans and coaches as well.
But he’s only 22! Do you know who else is around that age? Donovan. Freakin’. Mitchell.
Even if teams use this season’s tape to stifle Mitchell’s sophomore season, Exum could still be due for a breakout year at full health, creating a backcourt tandem that could rule over Utah for years.
But Exum’s injury history isn’t the only thing that becomes more impressive when contextualized with players in his age group. Remember Exum’s per-36 numbers mentioned earlier? The numbers stand out even among the next generation of young NBA talent. Per 36 minutes, he averages more points than Ben Simmons, shoots better than Joel Embiid and averages more assists than Tyus Jones.
Obviously, none of this implies that Dante will become better than those players or the deus ex(um) machina the Jazz are looking for to drag this defensive-minded team to an unexpected NBA Finals berth — that shouldn’t even be close to the expectation.
It does, however, imply that Exum’s addition does give the Jazz have the depth to likely to make their way past their first-round matchup against an unstable Thunder squad — and maybe even disrupt the Rockets enough to make the Western Conference finals interesting.