The first round of NBA playoffs offered only few upsets with higher seeds (mostly) taking care of business.
The Pelicans' sweep over the Trail Blazers was certainly something that very few predicted. The Thunder's trio of Russell Wesbrook, Carmelo Anthony and Paul George managed only two wins against the Jazz before being eliminated in Utah. But the top two seeds from each conference (Warriors, Rockets, Raptors and Celtics) advanced and sent the underdogs home early.
So who is the favorite to win the championship from the NBA's Elite Eight? AccuScore has simulated the remaining rounds of the playoffs and provided updated probabilities below.
AccuScore's odds to win NBA Finals
| Team | Win probability | Change from first round |
| Golden State Warriors | 47.6% | 14.9% |
| Houston Rockets | 25.0% | 2.4% |
| Toronto Raptors | 8.9% | -0.1% |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 7.2% | -3.6% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 5.1% | -4.8% |
| Boston Celtics | 3.2% | -3.7% |
| Utah Jazz | 2.2% | -0.9% |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 1.1% | -0.2% |
It looks like Warriors star Stephen Curry will return to action during Golden State's series against New Orleans. Adding Curry after a convincing performance in the first round has increased the Warriors' win probability quite a bit. They are right now a clear favorite to win the championship. The Rockets have also seen their odds go up, setting the stage for a potentially huge Western Conference finals series.
Rockets vs. Jazz
The top-seeded Rockets already took Game 1 this series, and Houston did so easily. Based on Accuscore simulations, the Rockets are a clear 80 percent favorite to win this series.
The most probable outcome is 4-2, but 4-1 and 4-3 have around a 20 percent probability. The Jazz played better than expected against the Thunder, but they need to raise their game in order to have any hope of keeping up with the Rockets.
Warriors vs. Pelicans
The Warriors also came out victorious in a Game 1 blowout victory. That didn't come as much of a surprise, as simulations predict that Golden State has a 92 percent probability to win this series.
The outcomes of 4-0, 4-1 and 4-2 have similarly equal probabilities at around 26 percent.
Celtics vs. 76ers
The Celtics needed seven games to beat the Bucks with the home team coming out on top in each contest. Boston still has home-court advantage, but that may not be enough.
Philadelphia is around a 70 percent favorite in this series and will likely win at least one game at TD Garden. Simulations show the 76ers won the series in a 4-1 outcome a quarter of the time.
Raptors vs. Cavs
Indiana pushed Cleveland to a full seven games, while top-seeded Toronto eliminated Washington in six games. Based on simulations, this is the tightest of all the second-round matchups.
The Raptors are a 66 percent favorite to advance, but it could take six or seven games to get past LeBron James and the Cavs. Cleveland has defeated Toronto two years in a row in the playoffs, but it looks like the Raptors will get a bit of revenge this time.
NBA playoff bracket
