The 2018 NBA playoffs feel more open than any other postseason in recent memory. But can any contenders really prevent another Cavs-Warriors matchup in the NBA Finals?
Let's go through the NBA playoff bracket and offer picks and predictions for each round before crowning a champion.
NBA playoff bracket
NBA playoffs: East first-round winners
We don’t foresee any sweeps here, but we don’t see any upsets, either...
NBA playoffs: West first-round winners
The sweep alert is out for the Rockets and Timberwolves, but this round is mostly about the Warriors surviving without Stephen Curry...
NBA playoffs: Conference semis
Raptors vs. Cavs
You have to feel for the Raptors. They’ve gone to great lengths, and had quite a bit of success, changing their style of play and expanding their bench in the last year. They earned the top seed in the East, and their reward is a second-round matchup against the Cavs after a tough first-round opponent in Washington.
Despite all the changes, though, Toronto’s primary problem has not gone anywhere: guarding LeBron James. As long as that issue remains unresolved, they can’t get past Cleveland. We foresee a seven-game classic series, at least one game won with a late shot by Toronto bench ace Fred VanVleet and a monster Game 7 performance from James (let’s go with 38 points, 16 rebounds and eight assists) to win the series.
Cavs over Raptors, 4-3
Celtics vs. 76ers
Things could not have worked out much better for the Sixers in the East playoff bracket. They should have Joel Embiid back at full strength here, and he will be a big problem for the duo of Aron Baynes and Greg Monroe. The Celtics’ defense does well defending penetrators like Ben Simmons, but an offensive monster like Embiid figures to be too much.
Boston could get a boost if Marcus Smart can return — a thin roster will need all the help it can get — and the Celtics will make this an interesting series. We’re imagining at least one triple-double from point guard Terry Rozier. But the Sixers have more up-front talent and depth, and they should wear Boston down.
76ers over Celtics, 4-2
Rockets vs. Thunder
The Thunder are the postseason’s wildcard, and probably not the team the Rockets want to see in Round 2. Oklahoma City won two of three against Houston this season, but overall, including last year’s playoffs, James Harden has beaten his former team in 14 of their last 19 meetings.
The Thunder have been a middle-of-the-road defensive team since losing Andre Roberson in January, and that figures to make the difference here — the Rockets will shoot 35-40 3-pointers per game against OKC, a team that has allowed opponents to make 39.1 percent of their 3s over their final 25 games. Look for both teams to crack triple figures in every game of the series, which Houston will win in five.
Rockets over Thunder, 4-1
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers
The Trail Blazers managed to go 2-1 against the Warriors this year, thanks mostly to 131 combined points by C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard in the two wins. That turned around an ugly trend for Portland, which had gone 2-18 in its previous 20 games against the Warriors, including two playoff losses.
The Warriors’ defense has not quite been right this year, and they’re just ninth in defensive rating, their worst mark since 2013. They figure to have Stephen Curry back for this series, and just in time, because Portland is an improved team on both ends of the floor.
Still, the Blazers lack depth, and the Warriors have Nick Young, who is going to come up with some random 16-point outburst that will help the Warriors win a game.
Warriors over Trail Blazers, 4-2
NBA playoffs: Conference finals
76ers vs. Cavs
So the Sixers go from 10-win league pariah to home-court advantage in the conference finals in a matter of two seasons. "Process" backers will rejoice and likely demand a statue of Sam Hinkie outside of the Wells Fargo Center, pronto.
The last time these two teams met was a classic, a 132-130 Sixers win that saw Ben Simmons log 27 points, 15 rebounds and 13 assists while LeBron James had 44 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists. The Sixers will have Joel Embiid at full strength here (hopefully) and will be able to give James all he can handle. But he remains unstoppable in an East playoff series, and will average a triple-double over six games.
Cavs over 76ers, 4-2
Rockets vs. Warriors
Hats off to the Rockets for refusing to fold in the face of the Warriors juggernaut this season and instead making a bold move to get Chris Paul and bring in defensive-minded guys like P.J. Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute. But the fun ends here.
The problem for the Rockets is that the playoffs are about matchups, and the Warriors have ways to create matchup problems — starting with Kevin Durant — that the Rockets can’t really match. James Harden is the toughest chore in the NBA, and should win the MVP, but the Warriors can throw different looks at him (Andre Iguodala, Klay Thompson, Durant) and do just enough to harass the Rockets’ perimeter shooters at the same time.
It’ll be fun to see old colleagues Steve Kerr and Mike D’Antoni head-to-head, but Kerr has a stronger hand to play here.
Warriors over Rockets, 4-2
NBA Finals predictions
Warriors vs. Cavs
This postseason feels, more than any other in the last few years, as though it is due for a surprise breakout to shake up the Finals. Toronto, maybe, can knock off Cleveland in the semis. Houston can overwhelm Golden State with its offense. Heck, the Sixers could break through and continue some of that Philadelphia magic we’ve seen in sports all year.
But here we are, predicting (yawn!) for the fourth straight year a Cavaliers-Warriors NBA Finals. The first two were great fun, and the third was a good rubber match, even if it was an uneven pairing. The fourth might be a little too much for most viewers, and it will not make Adam Silver, that pursuer of parity, particularly pleased.
But it’s hard to see Toronto actually coming through with the win over the Cavs, and it’s hard to see how the Rockets can match up with the Warriors. So, here we are.
As we’ve seen in the past, the Warriors know well how to harass James enough to make his nights difficult, and this time around, he has an uncertain supporting group. He will, again, post some incredible numbers. But he has piled up the games played and the minutes, and he will run out of gas against this team. Look for another Finals MVP for Kevin Durant.
PICK: Warriors over Cavs, 4-1