Included in this betting preview:
- Best moneyline pick
- Best bet against the spread
- Top over/under bet
- Highest-value player prop
- Full odds board for the day
- Updated NBA Playoffs bracket
The 2024 NBA Playoffs have started to heat up, and Friday night's doubleheader should be action-packed. Bettors looking for an edge should look no further, as Sporting News has identified multiple moneyline, spread and over/under value opportunities on BetMGM.
Jalen Brunson and the Knicks have raced out to an early 2-0 lead over the Pacers, and a raucous Madison Square Garden crowd proved on Wednesday that the New York-Indiana rivalry remains alive and well.
However, Brunson (foot) and OG Anunoby (hamstring) both left Game 2, with Brunson coming back in the second half and Anunoby never returning to action. Keep a close eye on the status of both Knicks stars ahead of Game 3 in Indiana. (NOTE: Anunoby will not play in Game 3 and is already listed questionable for Game 4).
MORE: Latest on Knicks injuries ahead of Game 3
Anthony Edwards and the Wolves also own a 2-0 lead, impressively stealing the first two games over the reigning champion Nuggets in Denver. It's the first time Michael Malone's squad has faced a 2-0 series deficit since the 2021-22 season.
Nikola Jokic and company have struggled to find offensive rhythm and defensive balance, and Monday's 106-80 beatdown was about as bad as Denver has looked in the Jokic MVP era. The Wolves' odds have skyrocketed up the BetMGM futures board, both to win the West (-105) and the Finals (+300).
Updated championship odds, best bets:
NBA Finals | Eastern Conference | Western Conference
Can the Pacers right the ship at home and take advantage of the Knicks being banged up? Will Denver course-correct and take one back from Minnesota on the road?
Let's take a look at the best bets for Friday's NBA playoff doubleheader, highlighting the top-value moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop wagers on the BetMGM market.
Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top moneyline bet
Nuggets (+155) at Wolves
This series can't possibly end in four or five games...right? One month ago, it seemed like Denver was going into the playoffs as strong as ever, perhaps even better than last year when the Nuggets went 16-4 en route to the franchise's first championship. Now Michael Malone's squad seems to be holding on for dear life.
The series odds are already heavily stacked against the reigning champions, as evidenced by Minnesota's -550 odds to advance to the Western Conference Finals. In the 28 instances that the road team won Games 1 and 2 of an NBA playoff best-of-seven, that team has won the series 24 times.
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Still, this is the Nuggets we're talking about here. They've only been swept once across their 14 playoff series in the Nikola Jokic era, and that was to the Suns in 2021 with Jamal Murray hurt and guys like Facu Campazzo and Austin Rivers playing big minutes.
Denver always figures something out, and they have won at Target Center before. They took down their March 19 regular-season matchup in Minneapolis and won two games in Minnesota during their first-round win over the Wolves last year. So, while getting back in this series will be hard, it's not even close to impossible.
Look for recently-crowned three-time MVP Jokic to impose his will on the interior, and Denver to get physical early. The Nuggets might also consider running zone defense or throwing some double-teams at Anthony Edwards, who has been spectacular.
Minnesota has shot over 50 percent from the floor and over 40 percent from three-point land, while winning the points-in-the-paint battle 104-76. The Nuggets show up tonight, if for nothing more than champion's pride.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Nuggets 105, Wolves 100 — Denver wins (+145) and covers the +4.5 spread (-110), while the final score goes just OVER the projected total of 204.5 (-115).
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Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top ATS pick
Pacers -2.5 (first quarter) vs. Knicks (-120)
In the playoffs especially, it makes a ton of sense to dive deeper within the betting matchup to uncover value against the spread. In this case, the Pacers yield little to no betting value at -6.5 for the game, but plenty of value at -2.5 for the first quarter.
What do we know about Indiana? They play extremely well at home (29-15), they push the pace from the jump, and they take advantage of older, slower and/or banged-up opponents whenever they can. All those factors play in Game 3, with Indy back home, pissed and in an advantageous spot with Brunson hurting and Anunoby out.
Since the start of the 2023-24 season, the Pacers have averaged 30.6 points per first quarter (second-best in the NBA). Over the past three games, Indy has averaged even more (31.0). New York, meanwhile, has averaged 27.4 per opening frame since the start of the season.
Rick Carlisle and his squad know how imperative a victory is in this spot. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in a best-of-seven series, and only four teams out of 154 in that position throughout history have even forced a Game 7. Look for Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and company to get after it on Friday night with the Indiana crowd pumping the noise.
FIRST QUARTER PREDICTION: Pacers 30, Knicks 26 — Indiana wins the first quarter (-110) and covers the -2.5 spread (-120), and the first-quarter total finishes just below the over/under of 56.5 (+100).
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Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top over/under bet
Knicks at Pacers: OVER 222.5 (-110)
The Knicks and Pacers went buck-wild on Wednesday, scoring 251 total points with three of the four quarters eclipsing 60 points.
There will obviously be substantial scoring regression in Game 3 — especially with Anunoby unable to suit up and Brunson banged up — but the total only jumping from 219.5 in Game 2 to 222.5 is surprising, to say the least.
You've probably heard this before, but the Pacers led the NBA in scoring this season with 123.3 points per game. The Knicks have averaged 123 points per game over their past three contests.
As Stan Van Gundy alluded to in Game 2, there hasn't been much defense in this series so far — and OG being sidelined should help preserve the status quo in that regard.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Pacers 120, Knicks 114 — Indiana wins (-300) but New York just barely covers the +7.5 spread (-110) and the total goes well OVER the 222.5-point projection (-110).
Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top player prop bet
Josh Hart rebounds: OVER 12.5 (-135)
Oddsmakers can keep bumping up the juice on Hart's rebounding OVER all they want — this prop will yield value for as long as the number stays at 12.5.
Hart has established himself as the best 6-4 rebounder in the history of the NBA (second-best if you don't believe Charles Barkley's listed height of 6-6 as a player), and he plays crazy minutes game in and game out. He hasn't missed a minute of fourth-quarter action the entire postseason!
Hart has grabbed 13-plus boards in six of the Knicks' eight playoff games this postseason, and now with Anunoby hurt it's even more crucial that he crashes the glass. The OVER on Hart rebounds has become as reliable as Nikola Jokic's triple-double props were in the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
Another solid Hart player prop: OVER 5.5 assists (-120) — he has seven-plus dimes in each of the Knicks' past three games.
NBA playoff bets and spreads tonight: Full odds board
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
| Game | Time | Moneyline | Spread | O/U |
| Knicks @ Pacers | 7:00 | IND -300; NY +230 | IND -7.5 (-110) | 222.5 |
| Nuggets @ Wolves | 9:30 | MIN -190; DEN +155 | MIN -4.5 (-110) | 204.5 |
NBA Playoffs updated bracket
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