Best NBA playoff bets and spreads tonight: Celtics, Thunder, Evan Mobley highlight picks for Thursday, May 9

Included in this betting preview:

• Best moneyline pick
• Best bet against the spread
• Top over/under bet
• Highest-value player prop
• Full odds board for the day
• Updated NBA Playoffs bracket

The 2024 NBA Playoffs roll on into Thursday, with the top-seeded Celtics and Thunder at home and looking to move out to strong 2-0 leads over the Cavaliers and Mavericks.

Betting the second round can be tricky, especially two nights after both No. 1 seeds laid beatdowns on their lower-seeded opponents. However, with an eye on stats and betting trends and a focus on value, it's easy to identify solid moneyline, spread, and over/under picks on BetMGM. 

MORE NBA PLAYOFFS:
Can Cleveland hang with Boston? | Why Luka is struggling

Boston, coming off a 120-95 dismantling of the Jarrett Allen-less Cavs, sit as a -13.5 favorite to go up 2-0. Their -900 Game 2 moneyline implies a win probability of 90 percent, not surprising considering the dominance Derrick White, Jaylen Brown and company exhibited despite having four days off.

The Thunder had even more time off between the end of the first round and the start of the second. After sweeping the Pelicans, OKC waited a full week for Dallas to finish things off against the Clippers.

Still, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company smashed Luka Doncic and the Mavs 117-95 on Tuesday. Oddsmakers aren't counting Dallas out yet, though — OKC sits as a -4.5 favorite tonight, with a much more modest moneyline than Boston's. 

Enough talk — let's get down to business, and explore BetMGM for the best moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop bets for Thursday.

betmgm_colored

BETMGM, AN AUTHORIZED GAMING OPERATOR OF THE NBA.

PLAY NOW

Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top moneyline bet

Thunder halftime/final (-110) vs. Mavericks

One of the best ways to cut down the moneyline juice on a favorite that you really like but don't want to spread-bet: bet the favorite to win the first and second half. In this case, OKC's -200 full-game moneyline gets cut to -110 to win both halves.

In case you didn't notice in Game 1, Luka Doncic just flat-out isn't right. Ever since his knee injury in Game 3 of the Mavs' opening-round series with the Clippers, he has looked off. He has hit just five of his past 35 three-point attempts and he's shooting 38.3 percent over the past five games.

Between his health, OKC's double-teams and Chet Holmgren's rim protection, he can't find separation or get to the hoop. He's even struggling from the free-throw line worse than usual, and in the fourth quarter of Game 1 he appeared to be waving off his teammates and telling them to handle multiple offensive possessions in a row.

The Thunder, meanwhile, look as strong and healthy as ever. They're young, tenacious on defense, and they bring the heat with an aggressive, up-tempo style of offense and a physical brand of team defense. The Mavs don't stand a chance if Luka is playing at 70 percent or less all series — this could be another sweep for the best team in the West.

HALFTIME/FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Thunder 56, Mavericks 52 (first half); Thunder 111, Mavericks 107 (final) — OKC wins the first and second half (-110) but Dallas finds a way to cover the +4.5 full-game spread (-105) thanks to some Kyrie Irving heroics. The final score goes just UNDER the projected total of 218.5 (-105).

WATCH: 2024 NBA Playoffs live on Sling

Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top ATS pick 

Thunder -2.5 (first half) vs. Mavericks (-115)

For those who prefer betting against the spread, OKC's first-half spread yields much more value than its -4.5 game spread. The Thunder's average first-half margin this season is +4, and it's +8 over the past three games.

Dallas, meanwhile, has an average first-half margin of just +0.8 on the season and +0.3 over its past three games. And with Luka playing hurt and stuck in the Lu Dort-ure chamber, the Mavs will be putting a lot of pressure on "the others" to step up.

Kyrie Irving can make some noise — few players in NBA history have performed at the highest level of hoops like he can — and the Daniel Gafford lobs should continue to at least make this series interesting. But without Luka at close to full speed, the Mavs should see a halftime deficit of at least three points. 

HALFTIME PREDICTION: Thunder 56, Mavericks 52 — OKC wins the half (-175) and covers the -2.5 spread (-115), and the first-half total finishes below the over/under of 111.5 (-105). 

BUY NOW: Get tickets for 2024 NBA Playoffs on StubHub

Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top over/under bet

Celtics OVER 29.5 first-quarter points vs. Cavaliers (+100)

An interesting trend has started to take hold in Boston: the Celtics get out to massive leads in the first quarter, then everyone cools down considerably in the second frame.

Maybe Kristaps Porzingis's calf injury and temporary absence plays a part in this. Maybe defenses make adjustments, or it has to do with physical fatigue. Beating teams up can be tiring, after all. Whatever the reason, it's happening.

Take a look at the stark contrast between Boston's averages in the first and second quarters over the past three games:

Now, take a look at what Cleveland's defense has allowed on average in the first and second quarter over its past three contests:

Knowing both of these splits, it's impossible to trust the first-half over/under of 108.5 points or even the Celtics' first-half team total in the high 50s. Boston's first-quarter OVER of 29.5 points, however, yields a ton of value with plus odds.

FIRST QUARTER PREDICTION: Celtics 32, Cavaliers 27 — Boston wins the quarter (-300), covers the -4.5 spread (-105), and goes OVER the first-quarter team total of 29.5 points (+100).

Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top player prop bet

Evan Mobley double-double (-105) 

Mobley went off late in Game 1 — one of the lone bright spots of Cleveland's second half — ultimately finishing with 17 points and 13 rebounds.

Lots of factors go into Mobley's great chances of double-doubling again on Thursday, including:

• the continued absence of Kristaps Porzingis
• the cold shooting of the Cavs' perimeter players
• Jarrett Allen either being sidelined again or playing hurt
• Boston's strong perimeter defense

Donovan Mitchell can't do it all himself. Mobley, usually happy to stay in his box as an elite defender and above-average rebounder, will need to step it up and put the ball in the hoop.

Enjoy the minimal vig on this underrated player prop. 

Another solid Mobley player prop: OVER 13.5 points (-105)

NBA playoff bets and spreads tonight: Full odds board

All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.

NBA Playoffs updated bracket