Best NBA playoff bets and spreads today: Thunder, Celtics and Jalen Williams highlight top picks for May 11

Included in this betting preview:

• Best moneyline pick
• Best bet against the spread
• Top over/under bet
• Highest-value player prop
• Full odds board for the day
• Updated NBA Playoffs bracket

The 2024 NBA Playoffs have started to heat up, especially the two second-round series involving the No. 1 seeds. The Celtics got blown out by the Cavaliers at TD Garden in Game 2 on Thursday, then Mavericks took it to the Thunder in OKC.

These upsets open the door for some value betting opportunities on BetMGM, including strong bets on the moneyline, against the spread and on the over/under and player prop market.

Can the Celtics and Thunder regain form and win back home-court advantage? Or, will Cleveland and Dallas take commanding 2-1 leads and put even more pressure on the top seeds?

Updated championship odds, best bets:
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Let's get right into the Sporting News' best bets for Saturday's day/night NBA playoff doubleheader, highlighting the top-value moneyline, spread, over/under and player prop wagers on the BetMGM market. 

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Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top moneyline bet

Thunder (+125) at Mavericks

OKC probably didn't foresee the thunder-and-lightning combo of Tim Hardaway Jr. and P.J. Washington in Game 2, nor did Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company likely expect Luka Doncic to go off one game after appearing hobbled and not even wanting the ball in clutch moments. 

Well, lightning struck, and now the No. 1 seed finds itself against the ropes and in need of a road W to regain momentum and retake home-court advantage. Coach of the Year Mark Daigneault will need to execute a better game plan to stop "the others" from inflicting damage, and OKC will need to better contain Kyrie Irving as a playmaker (he had 11 dimes in Game 2). 

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The Thunder should be up for the challenge — this is a team that finished top four in offensive and defensive rating this season, after all. It's also the youngest team in the league, so its first loss of the postseason should only fuel its collective fire. 

Oklahoma City has won in Dallas three times since February 2022, so don't expect the crowd to rattle this squad. The Thunder are 26-17 on the road and 41-17 in conference games since the start of the 2023-24 season — bet on them bouncing back and squeaking out a huge road victory tonight. 

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Thunder 107, Mavericks 105 — OKC wins (+125) but Dallas covers the +2.5 spread (-110), while the final score goes just OVER the projected total of 210.5 (-115).

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Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top ATS pick 

Celtics -2.5 (first quarter) at Cavaliers (-105)

In seemingly every playoff series they play, the Celtics experience a "wake-up call" game. Game 2 in Boston was just that, as Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and the Cavs put a 118-94 hurting on the C's.

Don't expect a lackluster start from the Green in Game 3. Boston's average margin of victory after its last two losses: 26.5 points. Its average margin of victory after a loss over the past two postseasons: 9.2.

Joe Mazzulla will have this team fired up to bounce back, winning the first frame for the sixth time in eight playoff games. The Celtics' average first-quarter scoring margin through their first seven contests this postseason: +5.8 points.

What has it taken to beat the Celtics during the 2024 NBA Playoffs? A whopping 23 three-pointers from Miami in the opening round, and an incredible 54.7-percent shooting from Cleveland this series. That's Boston's only two Ls of the postseason.

Cleveland cannot sustain that level of shooting, nor should we expect Boston to lose the rebounding battle 44-31 again. Look for the Celts to regain focus, unleash some haymakers early and often, and rebound swiftly to win back home-court advantage.

FIRST QUARTER PREDICTION: Celtics 30, Cavaliers 26 — Boston wins the first quarter (-190) and covers the -2.5 spread (-105), and the first-quarter total finishes just OVER the projected total of 54.5 (-105). 

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Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top over/under bet

Celtics at Cavaliers: OVER 27.5 (-140)

Sorry to jump all over these first-quarter props, but the value seems too good to pass up here. If you think the Celtics will win — as they have in five of their seven playoff games so far — you should bet them to exceed this over/under in the first frame.

Boston has averaged 27 first-quarter points per win this postseason and scored 34 first-quarter points in its last road game in Miami. Dating back to the start of the 2023-24 season, the Celtics lead the NBA with 31.4 first-quarter points per game.

Cleveland, meanwhile, has allowed 28.2 first-quarter PPG in that span and 29.3 1Q PPG over its past three contests. All signs point to a high-scoring opening frame from the No. 1 seed. 

FIRST QUARTER PREDICTION: Celtics 30, Cavaliers 26 — Boston wins the first quarter (-190), covers the -2.5 spread (-105), and goes OVER its first-quarter team total of 27.5 (-140).

Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top player prop bet

Jalen Williams points: OVER 19.5 (-130) 

The Thunder have won nine of the past 10 games in which J-Dub has scored 21 points or more, so the Santa Clara product getting aggressive early in Game 3 could be vital.

The Mavericks lost a lot of perimeter defense when they shipped out Dorian Finney-Smith last year. There's no reason a player with Williams' upside shouldn't be scoring in the 20-25 point range game in and game out against a Dallas starting five that starts Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and Derrick Jones Jr. as perimeter defenders and P.J. Washington at the four.

NBA playoff bets and spreads tonight: Full odds board

All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.

NBA Playoffs updated bracket