Friday night marks a turning point for the 2022-23 NBA season — it's the last day before the playoffs officially begin, and the final chance for two Play-In Tournament teams to win their way into the eighth seed of their respective conference. The Heat and Bulls tip off the Eastern Conference tilt at 7:00 p.m. ET (TNT), while the Wolves and Thunder's Western Conference showdown has been scheduled for 9:30 p.m. (ESPN). Since all eyes will be on this pivotal evening of hoops, we have decided to enter a DFS lineup in DraftKings' $400K Play-In Special, a $20 contest that will award $100,000 to the winner.
For the Heat, the 'culture' around Erik Spoelstra's squad has been questionable at best this season. After finishing the 2021-22 season as the top seed in the East, Miami limped into the 2023 Play-In with the seventh-best record in the conference — and proceeded to have its lunch money taken by Trae Young and the Hawks in the battle for the seventh seed. Seven different Atlanta players scored in double-digits, and the Hawks outrebounded Miami 63-39 and outscored the Heat in the paint 64-46. Heat franchise players Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo also combined to shoot just 11-of-31 on the game (35.5%).
Miami will need to be more assertive on the interior tonight if it wants to eliminate the Bulls. Nikola Vucevic, who posted a 14-point, 13-rebound double-double against the Raptors Wednesday, presents Adebayo with his second big challenge in a matter of days down low (Clint Capela ripped down 21 boards in the Hawks' win over Miami). The Heat will also need someone to step up and cover one of the Bulls' two perimeter and midrange assassins, Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan. LaVine scored 39 points in Chicago's win over Toronto, 30 of which he poured in during the second half. DeRozan was a little cooler, but still finished with 23 points, seven boards, and three assists.
MORE PLAY-IN BETTING: Best Heat-Bulls player props
As for the Western Conference showdown, we will be witnessing an up-and-coming OKC Thunder franchise — led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and Jalen Williams — and a downward-spiraling Wolves franchise that will be without multiple key cogs for multiple different reasons. SGA and Giddey were explosive in OKC'a win over the Pelicans on Wednesday, proving that 'rebuilding mode' is over in Oklahoma — this Thunder house is fully built and still has many valuable additions lined up in the not-so-distant future.
Minnesota, meanwhile, has cracks in its foundation. The offseason trade for Rudy Gobert could easily go down as one of the worst in NBA history, and the former Defensive Player of the Year might not even play tonight due to a 'back injury.' Gobert was sent home mid-game by coach Chris Finch after the center punched teammate Kyle Anderson during the Wolves' final regular-season game against New Orleans. Compounding the Wolves' issues, three-and-D specialist Jaden McDaniels frustratedly punched a wall and suffered fractures to his third and fourth metacarpals.
Minnesota has already been lamenting the loss of breakout big man Naz Reid, who broke his wrist after a dunk attempt-turned-fall to the ground a couple weeks ago. Young franchise cornerstone Anthony Edwards failed to pick up the slack in Minny's choke of a loss to the Lakers Wednesday, going just 3-of-17 for nine points. The Wolves blew a big second-half lead, as they have done so many times this season, and then failed to make up the ground in overtime.
These are the highs and lows we must take into consideration when drafting our DFS lineup and going for the $100,000 DraftKings prize. But it's way more than just determining which team or players has fared the best over the past few games — we must also gauge which stars have the best matchups and which sleepers have the best opportunity to step up in the midst of another teammate's absence. We'll keep all these variables in mind as we build our DraftKings Play-In Tournament picks, and we'll explain in detail why we drafted each player to our optimal lineup.
Before we break down all of our picks, here are the most notable scoring rules for DraftKings contests: Made three-point shot (+0.5 points), rebound (+1.25 points), assists (+1.5 points), steals and blocks (+2 points), double-double (+1.5 points -- max one per player) and triple-double (+3 points -- max one player).
NBA DraftKings Play-In Tournament Picks 4/14: DFS lineup for Friday's GPP contests
Friday night main slate — $50,000 budget
PG Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, Thunder @ Wolves ($10,400)
SGA has emerged not just as one of the candidates for NBA Most Improved Player — he has arguably become one of the 15 best scorers in the NBA. He poured in 32 points in OKC's massive win over Brandon Ingram and the Pelicans on Wednesday, and he will be a load for Wolves guard Mike Conley to handle defensively. Conley gives up nearly six inches to Gilgeous-Alexander, and even if Finch assigns Ant-man to cover the star guard, 6-8 guard Josh Giddey could feast. Against a short-handed Wolves squad that often struggles to contain assertive and athletic slashers, we love Gilgeous-Alexander as the anchor to our Friday night DFS lineup. He averages 49.9 DK points per game, and just dropped 50.75 in the biggest game of his young NBA career. Expect another 50-piece tonight.
SG Josh Giddey, Thunder at Wolves ($8,900)
While SGA was strong against the Pelicans on Wednesday, Giddey was even stronger. The second-year pro from Australia recorded 31 points, 10 assists, nine rebounds, and a block while shooting 50/43/86. He continues to step up in big moments, and his height and basketball IQ make him a nightmare for defenses. It may seem crazy to pick two young Thunder players in a contest that features a $400,000 prize pool, but at $8,900 we couldn't be more confident in a player averaging 38.1 DK points and coming off a game with 61.25. Fire him up!
SF DeMar DeRozan, Bulls at Heat ($7,700)
DeRozan won't have his daughter — his biggest fan and the Bulls' sixth defender — in South Beach tonight, but he will most likely be bringing his midrange super-talents and icy-veined clutch mentality. And as long as Jimmy Butler is forced to contain Zach LaVine, DeRozan will eat against the Heat. Take a look at his regular-season performances against Miami this year:
| Game (Location), Final Score | Points | Assists | FGs |
| Oct. 19 (@ MIA) — CHI 116-108 | 37 | 9 | 14-22 |
| Dec. 20 (@ MIA) — CHI 113-103 | 24 | 5 | 9-14 |
| Mar. 18 (@ CHI) — CHI 113-109 | 24 | 10 | 10-15 |
| Averages (CHI won season series 3-0) | 28.3 | 8.0 | 11-17 |
If we can get anywhere near this kind of production at $7,700, and our investments in the Thunder cornerstones pay off, we will be sitting pretty for a GPP prize this evening.
PF Taurean Prince, Wolves vs. Thunder ($5,200)
Prince has averaged over 24.5 DK points per game over Minnesota's past three games, and his usage rate should remain high with Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, and possibly Rudy Gobert all in street clothes tonight. He's a three-and-D guy with a low ceiling but a very solid floor when he gets the playing time.
C Jaylin Williams, Thunder at Wolves ($4,400)
Center eligibility on Jaylin 'Don't call me Jalen' Williams!? We'll take it. We really wanted Bulls center Nikola Vucevic here, but we can't possibly afford him and still round out the back-end of our lineup. Williams has increased his fantasy production in each of OKC's past three games, logging 16.75, 24.5, and 32.5 DK points in consequential order. If the Thunder expect to make the playoffs, Williams will need to bang down low with Karl-Anthony Towns and Kyle Anderson. We think the rookie's up for the challenge.
G Alex Caruso, Bulls at Heat ($5,000)
We contemplated reserving this spot for fellow Bulls guard Patrick Beverley, last year's King of the Play-In, but we like Caruso too much to pass on him for $5,000. He's a smart offensive player and a brilliant defensive player, the perfect guy to play a pivotal role in a road postseason game. If he can replicate his effort of 27.75 DK points against the Raptors, he will be a steal at this price.
F Kevin Love, Heat vs. Bulls ($4,100)
We haven't seen much of Love — at least on the floor — as of late, but we're making the bold prediction that Spoelstra will play him plenty this evening so that Miami doesn't get destroyed on the glass again. Clint Capela and the Hawks made Miami look like a JV team on the boards, so it only makes sense to insert Love into the mix to help contain Nikola Vucevic's rebounding excellence. Some points and assists will be icing on the cake of a low-expectations DFS pick.
UTIL Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Wolves vs. Thunder ($4,000)
You can call him NAW, but I'm gonna call him 'X' tonight because I believe he'll be an x-factor in the midst of all Minnesota's absences. He posted 21.5 DK points against the Lakers, and he was one of the only high-energy guys Finch had in the Wolves' epic collapse of a second half. Alexander-Walker is easily my favorite sleeper of the night, and he could very well push our lineup from contender to champion.
