AccuScore's NBA pick of the day – Jazz at Suns

Rohit Ghosh for AccuScore

AccuScore's NBA pick of the day – Jazz at Suns image

Losers of three straight, the Suns look to get back on track Friday night when they host the Jazz. Keep an eye on Utah's points off turnovers -- Phoenix has given up 20-plus points off turnovers in the last three games.

Line: Suns -5.5, Total: 203.5 (check The Linemakers on Sporting News' odds page for current NBA spreads and totals).

AccuScore has the Suns as solid 73.8 percent favorites to win, but money-line odds of -230 isn't particularly appealing. The average score after 10,000-plus simulations is 105-98. While both sides have fairly comparable probabilities at a close win (4 points or less), Phoenix has about four times the chance at a big win (10 points or more) than Utah.

AccuScore best bet: Phoenix has about a 58 percent chance of covering a -5.5-point spread.

In the past week, AccuScore has gone 29-19 on picks against the spread in the NBA (60.4 percent, +810 units).

Toss up: There's about an even 50 percent chance percent chance the total combined score goes OVER or stays UNDER 203.5.

AccuScore box score: Phoenix averages about three more steals than does Utah. The Suns are No. 5 in the league in steals per game, and No. 7 in steals per defensive play.
 
Projected Leaders
Gordon Hayward: 18 points, 5 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, 3 TOs
Eric Bledsoe: 18 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds, 3 steals, 1 block, 3 TOs

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Rohit Ghosh for AccuScore