Russell Westbrook is having a year for the ages, but if history tells us anything, he won't be taking home the NBA's MVP award at season's end.
Make no mistake about it, the Thunder superstar is putting together one of the greatest individual seasons in NBA history. With averages of 31.7 points, 10.6 rebounds and 10.0 assists, he's on track to become the first NBA player to average a triple-double since Oscar Robertson more than 50 years ago.
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Last week, Westbrook went off for 48 points, 17 rebounds and nine assists, becoming just the ninth player in NBA history to score 40 points in four consecutive games, according to Elias Sports Bureau.
He's putting up video game-like numbers, but the Thunder are far from a championship contender. Thunder have now lost three straight — all to teams with below .500 records — and are now 35-28, good for seventh in the West. A first-round knockout is inevitably waiting for them come playoff time. Fellow MVP candidates James Harden, Isaiah Thomas, Lebron James and Kawhi Leonard have their teams at the top of the standings.
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Oklahoma City is on pace to win under 50 games. A sub-50-win team hasn’t had the MVP since 1982, when the Moses Malone won it with the Rockets. The Rockets won 46 games and went on to get bounced in the first round.
Over the past 20 seasons, every league MVP has come from a team seeded one or two in their conference.
| MVP | Year | Seed |
|---|---|---|
| Steph Curry | 2016 | 1 |
| Steph Curry | 2015 | 1 |
| Kevin Durant | 2014 | 2 |
| Lebron James | 2013 | 1 |
| Lebron James | 2012 | 2 |
| Derrick Rose | 2011 | 1 |
| Lebron James | 2010 | 1 |
| Lebron James | 2009 | 1 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2008 | 1 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | 2007 | 1 |
| Steve Nash | 2006 | 2 |
| Steve Nash | 2005 | 1 |
| Kevin Garnett | 2004 | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2003 | 1 |
| Tim Duncan | 2002 | 2 |
| Allen Iverson | 2001 | 1 |
| Shaquille O'Neal | 2000 | 1 |
| Karl Malone | 1999 | 2 |
| Michael Jordan | 1998 | 1 |
| Karl Malone | 1997 | 1 |
Michael Jordan was the last MVP on a team seeded worse than second, when the Bulls finished as the three seed in 1988.
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The Thunder have won just 55 percent of their games, no player since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976 has won the MVP award on a team that had a winning percentage less than .561. The closest point was Malone in 1981-82, when he averaged 31 points and 15 rebounds.
Only two MVP winners in NBA history played for a team that won fewer than 60 percent of its regular season games. Malone actually did it twice with the Houston Rockets (57.3 percent in 1978-79; 56.1 percent in 1981-82) and Bob McAdoo did it with the Buffalo Braves (59.8 percent in 1974–75).
According to NBA.com records, 39 MVPs played for the team with the best regular season record.
Winning matters. So much so that some league MVPs hadn't even had prolific seasons. Derrick Rose in 2011 is the latest example of a player whose MVP candidacy was boosted because of team success. Rose averaged 25 points, 7.7 assists and 4.1 rebounds on a Bulls team that was known for its defensive prowess, leading us to assume that MVP award routinely goes to the best player on one of the NBA's top teams.
And don't forget, Robertson didn't win the MVP either when averaged a triple-double in 1961-62. Bill Russell won the MVP by leading the Celtics to a No. 1 playoff seed and eventually a championship.
You get the picture — Westbrook's team is too lousy to win the award. But it extends even deeper than that.
Westbrook has been criticized this season for taking too many shots, turning the ball over a lot and playing poor defense. Of the top 40 scorers in the NBA, Westbrook is shooting the lowest percentage (41.9 percent). That would be the worst percentage by an MVP since Bob Cousy shot 37.8 percent in 1956-57, which was well before the NBA-ABA merger.
Take a look at the five worst percentages by MVPs.
| MVP | Year | FG % |
| Bob Cousy | 1956-57 | 37.8 |
| Allen Iverson | 2000-01 | 42.0 |
| Bill Russell | 1960-61 | 42.6 |
| Bob Pettit | 1955-56 | 42.9 |
| Bill Russell | 1962-63 | 43.2 |
Simply, Iverson is the only MVP in the last 60 years to even flirt with Westbrook's poor shooting percentage.
It's fair to argue that OKC needs him to catapult shot after shot to present a respectable offense. But still, 41 percent isn't MVP worthy.
Westbrook is the league's leading scorer, but even that doesn't necessarily trend toward an MVP season. Over the past 20 years, only five players have won the scoring title and the MVP in the same season — Steph Curry (2015-16), Kevin Durant (2013-14), Allen Iverson (2000-01), Shaquille O'Neal (1999-00) and Jordan (1997-98).
For a point a guard, we've never seen an MVP candidate score like Westbrook. But it's also incredibly rare how reckless Westbrook is with the ball in his hands.
Westbrook leads NBA point guards — actually the entire NBA — with 345 turnovers. And while averaging 10.0 assists a game, second in the league, Westbrook is ranked 40th among point guards in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.83). He's had multiple double-digit turnover games and is on track to break James Harden's NBA record for turnovers in a single season (374).
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Only six MVPs have been point guards, and they've been players known to take excellent care of the ball.
Even with 19 games to go, Westbrook already has more turnovers than point guards Steve Nash (276) and Rose had (278) in their MVP seasons.
It's fair to mention that Westbrook has the ball in his hands more than anybody. He leads the NBA in usage percentage (42.1), which estimates the percentage of team plays used by a player while he's on the floor. With players that involved, turnovers are going to happen, but this much for an MVP? Come on.
There's no denying that Westbrook's season has been absurd. He scores from everywhere on court, skies for rebounds and pushes the pace like he's some superhero playing slam ball.
Westbrook just doesn't measure up with MVPs of the past, and the numbers support that.